تنبؤ متعدد الوكلاء بركود US بحلول 2026

# 06_multi_agent_research_20260609T141413Z_9fc4a2655471.json


```json
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      "rationale": "Multiple forecasts show positive GDP growth for 2025-2026: Indiana Business Research Center forecasts 1.8% real GDP growth in 2026, Deloitte expects 4% business investment growth, and Fed officials project growth near potential. Current recession probability models show low risk (0.44% as of April 2026, NY Fed treasury spread model at ~15% for 12-months ahead). While some economic headwinds exist (softening labor market, elevated deficits), the consensus forecasts positive growth through 2026. The market implied probability of 17.5% appears slightly elevated given current economic indicators and forecasts.",
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              "title": "U.S. outlook for 2026 - Indiana Business Research Center",
              "url": "https://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/ibr/2025/outlook/national.html",
              "snippet": "The IBR is a publication of the Indiana Business Research Center at IU's Kelley School of Business. *Recent developments in the U.S. and global economy present a complex and evolving picture for policymakers and business leaders. While our current readings of headline growth rema\u2026",
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              "title": "Economic Outlook U.S. Q2 2026: Curb Your Enthusia",
              "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533",
              "snippet": "[Current Oil Price Surge To Weigh On Growth](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q2-2026-curb-your-enthusiasm-s101676533). Before the war broke out, we were expecting to increase our growth forecast for this year closer to 2.5% on higher-tha\u2026",
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              "title": "US Economic Forecast Q1 2026 | Deloitte Insights",
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              "snippet": "This reflects the sizable capital expenditure plans that AI \u201chyperscalers\u201d have announced for this year.[4](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-4)We now expect real business investment to grow by\u2026",
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            {
              "title": "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036",
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              "title": "[PDF] Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread",
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              "snippet": "Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread* Treasury Spread: 10 yr bond rate-3 month bill rate Monthly Average (Percent) 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015\u2026",
              "published": null,
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            {
              "title": "US Recession Probability 2025 \u2013 Sahm Rule, Yield Curve & NBER ...",
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              "title": "U.S. Recession Probabilities (1967-2026) - Macrotrends",
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              "snippet": "## U.S. Recession Probabilities (1967-2026). Markets Metals Energy Commodities Interest Rates Exchange Rates Economy. Inflation Rate Unemployment National Debt Debt/GDP Housing Starts Initial Claims Retail Sales Industrial Prod Durable Goods. # **U.S. Recession Probabilities:** 0\u2026",
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              "title": "6 Key Recession Indicators To Watch for in 2025 - Chase Bank",
              "url": "https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/what-are-recession-indicators",
              "snippet": "The NBER doesn't have a set formula to determine if the US is in a recession, but it does use the following six key economic indicators to help identify",
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              "title": "The Big Four Recession Indicators - dshort - Advisor Perspectives",
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              "snippet": "The chart and table below illustrate the performance of the generic big four since the end of the most recent recession (2020). The NBER",
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              "snippet": "We believe the most likely path for Fed policy in 2026 is for the central bank to bring rates down from the current range of 3.50% to 3.75%",
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            {
              "title": "Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee",
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              "title": "The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy \u2013 April 1, 2026",
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              "snippet": "A baseline scenario for 2026 has real GDP growing close to potential, the unemployment rate holding around its current level, and core inflation",
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              "title": "Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee",
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              "title": "The Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | Goldman Sachs",
              "url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026",
              "snippet": "Goldman Sachs Research forecasts two more cuts from the Fed next year, leaving interest rates at 3-3.25%.",
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      "rationale": "Based on current economic conditions and historical base rates, the US economy shows resilience with strong 2024 performance (2.5-2.9% GDP growth), low unemployment near 4%, and inflation approaching the Fed's 2% target. Professional forecasters project continued positive growth through 2025-2026. However, historical data shows recessions occur roughly every 6-8 years on average, with the last recession ending in 2020. The NY Fed yield curve model shows only 14.98% recession probability by May 2027, while other indicators remain relatively low. Given the 24-month forecast window and typical recession frequency, assigning 22% probability accounts for both the currently favorable conditions and the base rate risk of economic cycles, slightly above the market-implied 17.5%.",
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              "title": "The 2024 Economy and 2025 Preview",
              "url": "https://blog.uwsp.edu/cps/2024/12/06/the-2024-economy-and-2025-preview",
              "snippet": "As 2024 comes to an end, overall, the U.S. economy is in great shape. In 2024 economic growth was strong with more Americans working than ever as job gains continued and real wages were increasing. The U.S. stock market hit several record highs and was a global leader in providin\u2026",
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              "title": "An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025",
              "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59258",
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              "title": "First Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters",
              "url": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2025",
              "snippet": "*   [Survey of Professional Forecasters](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). [](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf \"Down\u2026",
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              "title": "U.S. outlook for 2025 - Indiana Business Research Center",
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              "snippet": "![Image 8: Line graph showing quarterly real personal consumption growth in the U.S. from 2023 Q4 to 2024 Q3, forecasted real personal consumption growth from 2024 Q4 to 2026 Q4 and last year's forecast for real personal consumption growth from 2023 Q4 to 2026 Q4.'](https://www.i\u2026",
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              "title": "December 10, 2025: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version",
              "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm",
              "snippet": "*   [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). *   [Notes](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-principles-and-practice.htm). *   [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). *   [Federal R\u2026",
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              "title": "US Issues Recession Alert: Higher Chances In 2026 | WION",
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              "snippet": "The United States faces rising recession risks in 2026, with experts warning of economic slowdown ahead. Factors like inflation, interest",
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              "title": "U.S. Recession Probabilities (1967-2026) - Macrotrends",
              "url": "https://www.macrotrends.net/3084/us-recession-probabilities",
              "snippet": "## U.S. Recession Probabilities (1967-2026). Markets Metals Energy Commodities Interest Rates Exchange Rates Economy. Inflation Rate Unemployment National Debt Debt/GDP Housing Starts Initial Claims Retail Sales Industrial Prod Durable Goods. # **U.S. Recession Probabilities:** 0\u2026",
              "published": null,
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            {
              "title": "[PDF] Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread",
              "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/prob_rec.pdf",
              "snippet": "Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread* Treasury Spread: 10 yr bond rate-3 month bill rate Monthly Average (Percent) 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015\u2026",
              "published": null,
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            {
              "title": "NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from ... - FRED",
              "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USREC",
              "snippet": "# NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC). This time series is an interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). For this\u2026",
              "published": null,
              "score": 0.5139862
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            {
              "title": "What Is the Probability of a Recession? | J.P. Morgan Research",
              "url": "https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/recession-probability",
              "snippet": "[Skip to main content](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/recession-probability#main). *   [Global Research](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research). *   [Global Research](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research). *   [Markets and Economy](htt\u2026",
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              "title": "[PDF] History Suggests a High Chance of Recession over the Next 24 ...",
              "url": "https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/files/Recession_blog.pdf",
              "snippet": "To examine the plausibility of these forecasts, we look at quarterly data going back to the 1950s and calculate the probability that the economy goes into a recession within the next 12 and 24 months, conditioning on alternative measures of inflation and unemployment. Table 1 sho\u2026",
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            {
              "title": "[PDF] Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread",
              "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/prob_rec.pdf",
              "snippet": "Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread* Treasury Spread: 10 yr bond rate-3 month bill rate Monthly Average (Percent) 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015\u2026",
              "published": null,
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            {
              "title": "List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia",
              "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States",
              "snippet": "# List of recessions in the United States. There have been as many as 48 recessions in the United States dating back to the Articles of Confederation, and although economists and historians dispute certain 19th-century recessions, the consensus view among economists and historian\u2026",
              "published": null,
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            {
              "title": "[PDF] Has the Recession Started? - University of California, Berkeley",
              "url": "https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/michaillat-saezOBES25.pdf",
              "snippet": "The indicator is larger when the unem-ployment rate increases more rapidly.2 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 0 0.5 1 2 3 4 Recession indicators (pp) Unemployment Vacancy FIGURE 2 | Construction of the Michez rule: unemployment and vacancy indicators, January 1960\u2013December 2024\u2026",
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              "score": 0.20343871
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            {
              "title": "Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) | FRED | St. Louis Fed",
              "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JHDUSRGDPBR",
              "snippet": "# Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR). **Release:** GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index. The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whenever the GDP-b\u2026",
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          "llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.22,\"rationale\":\"Based on current economic conditions and historical base rates, the US economy shows resilience with strong 2024 performance (2.5-2.9% GDP growth), low unemployment near 4%, and inflation approaching the Fed's 2% target. Professional forecasters project continued positive growth through 2025-2026. However, historical data shows recessions occur roughly every 6-8 years on average, with the last recession ending in 2020. The NY Fed yield curve model shows only 14.98% recession probability by May 2027, while other indicators remain relatively low. Given the 24-month forecast window and typical recession frequency, assigning 22% probability accounts for both the currently favorable conditions and the base rate risk of economic cycles, slightly above the market-implied 17.5%.\"}"
        }
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      "uncertainties": [
        "However, historical data shows recessions occur roughly every 6-8 years on average, with the last recession ending in 2020",
        "Given the 24-month forecast window and typical recession frequency, assigning 22% probability accounts for both the currently favorable conditions and the base rate risk of economic cycles, slightly above the market-implied 17"
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      "rationale": "Based on professional forecaster surveys showing continued GDP growth expectations for 2025-2026, Fed projections indicating gradual economic expansion, and historical base rates showing US recessions occur roughly every 6-8 years on average (with the last recession in 2020). Current economic indicators suggest a 'soft landing' scenario with unemployment remaining relatively low and inflation moderating. The market implied probability of 17.5% appears slightly underpriced given typical recession frequency and current economic uncertainties, but professional consensus forecasts lean toward continued growth through 2026.",
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              "snippet": "*   [Survey of Professional Forecasters](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). [](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf \"Down\u2026",
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              "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm",
              "snippet": "*   [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). *   [Notes](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-principles-and-practice.htm). *   [Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm). *   [Federal R\u2026",
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              "title": "Survey of Professional Forecasters",
              "url": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters",
              "snippet": "*   [Second Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters / May 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2026). *   [First Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters / March 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data\u2026",
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            {
              "title": "US Economic Forecast Q1 2026 | Deloitte Insights",
              "url": "https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html",
              "snippet": "This reflects the sizable capital expenditure plans that AI \u201chyperscalers\u201d have announced for this year.[4](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html#endnote-4)We now expect real business investment to grow by\u2026",
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              "score": 0.6882385
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            {
              "title": "Professional Forecasters' Past Performance and the 2026 Economic ...",
              "url": "https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/dec/professional-forecasters-past-performance-outlook-2026",
              "snippet": "# Professional Forecasters\u2019 Past Performance and the 2026 Economic Outlook. Image 2: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Image 3 FRED Tools and resources to find and use economic data worldwide. Image 4 FRASER U.S. Financial, economic, and banking history. Image 5 ALFRED Vintages\u2026",
              "published": null,
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            {
              "title": "U.S. Economy Forecast: Blue Chip Economic Indicators outlook for ...",
              "url": "https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/expert-insights/us-economy-forecast-blue-chip-economic-indicators-outlook-for-the-year-ahead",
              "snippet": "All content is available on the global site. # U.S. Economy Forecast: Blue Chip Economic Indicators outlook for the year ahead. ### Every month, Wolters Kluwer provides corporate and government decision-makers with an outlook on the performance of the U.S. economy for the year ah\u2026",
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              "title": "[PDF] NBER Recession Dates: Strengths, Weaknesses, and a Modern ...",
              "url": "https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/NBER%20Recession%20Dates.pdf",
              "snippet": "This is the second key result of the model.3 In other words, if a modern time-series econometrician with no knowledge of the history of business cycle dating or the concept of a recession were handed the time series for postwar U.S. GDP growth, they would conclude that the data p\u2026",
              "published": null,
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            },
            {
              "title": "NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from ... - FRED",
              "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USREC",
              "snippet": "# NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC). This time series is an interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). For this\u2026",
              "published": null,
              "score": 0.38755178
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            {
              "title": "Recession Dating and Real-Time Data",
              "url": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/the-economy/macroeconomics/recession-dating-and-real-time-data",
              "snippet": "The NBER is the accepted dater of the start and end of recessions in the U.S. The NBER is the accepted dater of the start and end of recessions in the U.S. When recessions are called by the NBER, they are generally marked by a downward trend in the following variables: real sales\u2026",
              "published": null,
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            {
              "title": "[PDF] Business Cycles and Low-Frequency Fluctuations in the US ...",
              "url": "https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/working-papers/2023/wp2319.pdf",
              "snippet": "I refer to these recessions as \u201cNBER recessions.\u201d For my second type of recession, I follow in the spirit of previous macro-labor research.",
              "published": null,
              "score": 0.32130077
            },
            {
              "title": "List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia",
              "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States",
              "snippet": "# List of recessions in the United States. There have been as many as 48 recessions in the United States dating back to the Articles of Confederation, and although economists and historians dispute certain 19th-century recessions, the consensus view among economists and historian\u2026",
              "published": null,
              "score": 0.2788362
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          "query": null,
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          "llm_raw": "{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.22,\"rationale\":\"Based on professional forecaster surveys showing continued GDP growth expectations for 2025-2026, Fed projections indicating gradual economic expansion, and historical base rates showing US recessions occur roughly every 6-8 years on average (with the last recession in 2020). Current economic indicators suggest a 'soft landing' scenario with unemployment remaining relatively low and inflation moderating. The market implied probability of 17.5% appears slightly underpriced given typical recession frequency and current economic uncertainties, but professional consensus forecasts lean toward continued growth through 2026.\"}"
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      "json_mode": true,
      "messages": [
        {
          "role": "system",
          "content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
        },
        {
          "role": "user",
          "content": "QUESTION:\nWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if US real GDP (seasonally adjusted annualized) contracts for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or the NBER declares a recession dated within that window.\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.175\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
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      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
      "json_mode": true,
      "messages": [
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          "content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
        },
        {
          "role": "user",
          "content": "QUESTION:\nWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if US real GDP (seasonally adjusted annualized) contracts for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or the NBER declares a recession dated within that window.\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.175\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
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      "response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US economic indicators 2024 2025 GDP growth inflation unemployment Federal Reserve interest rates\"}",
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      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
      "json_mode": true,
      "messages": [
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          "role": "system",
          "content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
        },
        {
          "role": "user",
          "content": "QUESTION:\nWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if US real GDP (seasonally adjusted annualized) contracts for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or the NBER declares a recession dated within that window.\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.175\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
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      "json_mode": true,
      "messages": [
        {
          "role": "system",
          "content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
        },
        {
          "role": "user",
          "content": "QUESTION:\nWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if US real GDP (seasonally adjusted annualized) contracts for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or the NBER declares a recession dated within that window.\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.175\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
        },
        {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US GDP growth forecast 2025 2026 recession indicators economic outlook\"}"
        },
        {
          "role": "tool",
          "content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. U.S. outlook for 2026 - Indiana Business Research Center\n   URL: https://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/ibr/2025/outlook/national.html\n   The IBR is a publication of the Indiana Business Research Center at IU's Kelley School of Business. *Recent developments in the U.S. and global economy present a complex and evolving picture for policymakers and business leaders. While our current readings of headline growth remain resilient \u2014 buoyed by strong investment in artificial intelligence, a resilient consumer and robust financial markets \u2014 underlying indicators suggest a more nuanced reality.1 Labor market momentum is softening, with slower payroll gains and rising concerns about hiring reluctance amid political and economic uncertainty. The Indiana Business Research Center forecasts r\u2026"
        }
      ],
      "response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US recession probability 2025 2026 NBER recession indicators economic risks\"}",
      "input_tokens": 3206,
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      "total_tokens": 3234,
      "timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:14:01+00:00"
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      "label": "agent_1",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
      "json_mode": true,
      "messages": [
        {
          "role": "system",
          "content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
        },
        {
          "role": "user",
          "content": "QUESTION:\nWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if US real GDP (seasonally adjusted annualized) contracts for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or the NBER declares a recession dated within that window.\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.175\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
        },
        {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US economic indicators 2024 2025 GDP growth inflation unemployment Federal Reserve interest rates\"}"
        },
        {
          "role": "tool",
          "content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. The 2024 Economy and 2025 Preview\n   URL: https://blog.uwsp.edu/cps/2024/12/06/the-2024-economy-and-2025-preview\n   As 2024 comes to an end, overall, the U.S. economy is in great shape. In 2024 economic growth was strong with more Americans working than ever as job gains continued and real wages were increasing. The U.S. stock market hit several record highs and was a global leader in providing returns to shareholders while interest rates fell. Although consumers may still feel a hangover from recent high global inflation, U.S. inflation continued its descent from the 2022 high and was approaching the Federal Reserve\u2019s 2% target level. 2025 brings economic uncertainty, particularly with tariffs and trade, changes in fiscal policy with respect to taxes and government spen\u2026"
        }
      ],
      "response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US recession probability 2025 2026 economic forecasts professional economists NBER recession indicators\"}",
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      "timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:14:01+00:00"
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      "seq": 5,
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      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
      "json_mode": true,
      "messages": [
        {
          "role": "system",
          "content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
        },
        {
          "role": "user",
          "content": "QUESTION:\nWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if US real GDP (seasonally adjusted annualized) contracts for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or the NBER declares a recession dated within that window.\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.175\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
        },
        {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US economic indicators 2024 2025 GDP growth inflation unemployment Federal Reserve interest rates\"}"
        },
        {
          "role": "tool",
          "content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025\n   URL: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59258\n   Real GDP increases by 1.5 percent in 2024 and by 2.4 percent in 2025. That initial slowdown in economic growth drives up unemployment. The\n\n2. First Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters\n   URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2025\n   *   [Survey of Professional Forecasters](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). [](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf \"Download\"). *   [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2025](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Asset\u2026"
        }
      ],
      "response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US recession probability 2025 2026 professional forecasters economists surveys\"}",
      "input_tokens": 5238,
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      "total_tokens": 5264,
      "timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:14:02+00:00"
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      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
      "json_mode": true,
      "messages": [
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          "role": "system",
          "content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
        },
        {
          "role": "user",
          "content": "QUESTION:\nWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if US real GDP (seasonally adjusted annualized) contracts for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or the NBER declares a recession dated within that window.\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.175\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
        },
        {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US GDP growth forecast 2025 2026 recession indicators economic outlook\"}"
        },
        {
          "role": "tool",
          "content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. U.S. outlook for 2026 - Indiana Business Research Center\n   URL: https://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/ibr/2025/outlook/national.html\n   The IBR is a publication of the Indiana Business Research Center at IU's Kelley School of Business. *Recent developments in the U.S. and global economy present a complex and evolving picture for policymakers and business leaders. While our current readings of headline growth remain resilient \u2014 buoyed by strong investment in artificial intelligence, a resilient consumer and robust financial markets \u2014 underlying indicators suggest a more nuanced reality.1 Labor market momentum is softening, with slower payroll gains and rising concerns about hiring reluctance amid political and economic uncertainty. The Indiana Business Research Center forecasts r\u2026"
        },
        {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US recession probability 2025 2026 NBER recession indicators economic risks\"}"
        },
        {
          "role": "tool",
          "content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. [PDF] Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread\n   URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/prob_rec.pdf\n   Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread* Treasury Spread: 10 yr bond rate-3 month bill rate Monthly Average (Percent) 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 May 2026 = 0.79648 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Twelve Months Ahead (month averages) 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 May 2027 = 14.9758% *Parameters estimated using data from January 19\u2026"
        }
      ],
      "response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rates 2025 2026 monetary policy inflation unemployment current economic conditions\"}",
      "input_tokens": 4267,
      "output_tokens": 29,
      "total_tokens": 4296,
      "timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:14:04+00:00"
    },
    {
      "seq": 7,
      "label": "agent_1",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
      "json_mode": true,
      "messages": [
        {
          "role": "system",
          "content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
        },
        {
          "role": "user",
          "content": "QUESTION:\nWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if US real GDP (seasonally adjusted annualized) contracts for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or the NBER declares a recession dated within that window.\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.175\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
        },
        {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US economic indicators 2024 2025 GDP growth inflation unemployment Federal Reserve interest rates\"}"
        },
        {
          "role": "tool",
          "content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. The 2024 Economy and 2025 Preview\n   URL: https://blog.uwsp.edu/cps/2024/12/06/the-2024-economy-and-2025-preview\n   As 2024 comes to an end, overall, the U.S. economy is in great shape. In 2024 economic growth was strong with more Americans working than ever as job gains continued and real wages were increasing. The U.S. stock market hit several record highs and was a global leader in providing returns to shareholders while interest rates fell. Although consumers may still feel a hangover from recent high global inflation, U.S. inflation continued its descent from the 2022 high and was approaching the Federal Reserve\u2019s 2% target level. 2025 brings economic uncertainty, particularly with tariffs and trade, changes in fiscal policy with respect to taxes and government spen\u2026"
        },
        {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US recession probability 2025 2026 economic forecasts professional economists NBER recession indicators\"}"
        },
        {
          "role": "tool",
          "content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. US Issues Recession Alert: Higher Chances In 2026 | WION\n   URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HL5JFweunk\n   The United States faces rising recession risks in 2026, with experts warning of economic slowdown ahead. Factors like inflation, interest\n\n2. U.S. Recession Probabilities (1967-2026) - Macrotrends\n   URL: https://www.macrotrends.net/3084/us-recession-probabilities\n   ## U.S. Recession Probabilities (1967-2026). Markets Metals Energy Commodities Interest Rates Exchange Rates Economy. Inflation Rate Unemployment National Debt Debt/GDP Housing Starts Initial Claims Retail Sales Industrial Prod Durable Goods. # **U.S. Recession Probabilities:** 0.44% as of April 2026. ###### **Units:** Percent. ###### **Frequency:** Monthly. ###### **Release: U.S. Recession Probabi\u2026"
        }
      ],
      "response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US economic base rates recession frequency historical data since 1950 average recession probability\"}",
      "input_tokens": 6009,
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      "total_tokens": 6036,
      "timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:14:04+00:00"
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          "content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
        },
        {
          "role": "user",
          "content": "QUESTION:\nWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if US real GDP (seasonally adjusted annualized) contracts for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or the NBER declares a recession dated within that window.\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.175\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
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        {
          "role": "tool",
          "content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025\n   URL: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59258\n   Real GDP increases by 1.5 percent in 2024 and by 2.4 percent in 2025. That initial slowdown in economic growth drives up unemployment. The\n\n2. First Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters\n   URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2025\n   *   [Survey of Professional Forecasters](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). [](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf \"Download\"). *   [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2025](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Asset\u2026"
        },
        {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"US recession probability 2025 2026 professional forecasters economists surveys\"}"
        },
        {
          "role": "tool",
          "content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. First Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters\n   URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026\n   *   [Survey of Professional Forecasters](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters). [](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfQ126.pdf \"Download\"). *   [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2026](https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2026/spfq126_real-gdp-growth-2026.jpg?la=en&sc_lang=en&hash=8B83D39A6B4EBC00E0A887B69BFC3A0B)(chart). *   [Mean Probabilities for Real GDP Growth in 2027](https://www.philadelphiafed.org\u2026"
        }
      ],
      "response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"historical US recession frequency base rates NBER recession statistics probability\"}",
      "input_tokens": 10066,
      "output_tokens": 23,
      "total_tokens": 10089,
      "timestamp": "2026-06-09T14:14:05+00:00"
    },
    {
      "seq": 9,
      "label": "agent_0",
      "model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
      "json_mode": true,
      "messages": [
        {
          "role": "system",
          "content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction marke