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PatchTST: بنية Transformer مجزأة للتنبؤ بالسلاسل الزمنية

الكود Machine Learning for Trading

الملخص

تعرض هذه الوثيقة البنية الأساسية للشبكة العصبية PatchTST للتنبؤ بالسلاسل الزمنية متعددة المتغيرات. وتقسم كل سلسلة مدخلة إلى مقاطع متداخلة، وتسقط كل مقطع في فضاء ميزات متعلّم، وتضيف ترميزات موضعية، ثم تعالج التسلسل الناتج بطبقات متراصة من مُرمّز Transformer. ويتعامل المُرمّز مع كل متغير مدخل بصورة مستقلة عبر طبقات الانتباه، ثم تُحوّل طبقة التنبؤ المقاطع المرمّزة إلى الأفق المستهدف.

تدعم البنية أيضًا تطبيعًا قابلًا للعكس لكل عينة، وحشوًا اختياريًا في النهاية، والإسقاط، والانتباه المتبقي، وطبقة تنبؤ مشتركة أو طبقات منفصلة لكل متغير. وتتيح خيارات التصميم هذه التحكم بالتطبيع وتغطية المقاطع وسعة النموذج ومشاركة المعلمات بين المتغيرات. والمادة المقدمة شيفرة تنفيذية وليست تجربة تداول؛ فهي لا تعرض مجموعة أصول أو طريقة تقييم أو نتائج تنبؤ.

للاستخدام الكمي، تُعد هذه البنية مكوّنًا نمذجيًا، لا دليلًا على وجود ميزة تنبؤية. ويتوقف أداؤها على إعداد البيانات وطول المقاطع وخطوتها وإعداد النموذج وإجراء التدريب والتحقق خارج العينة. ولا يقدم المقتطف إرشادات بشأن تكاليف المعاملات أو إنشاء المحافظ.

الأفكار الرئيسية

  • تحوّل PatchTST السلسلة الزمنية إلى مقاطع وتضمّن كل مقطع قبل تطبيق انتباه Transformer.
  • يعالج المُرمّز المتغيرات بصورة مستقلة، بينما يمكن لطبقة التنبؤ مشاركة المعلمات أو استخدام طبقة منفصلة لكل متغير.
  • يمكن للتطبيع القابل للعكس لكل عينة تطبيع المدخلات قبل الترميز ثم استعادة مقياس التنبؤات بعده.
  • يحدد طول المقطع وخطوته والحشو وأبعاد النموذج تمثيل التسلسل وبنية التنبؤ.
  • لا يقدم التنفيذ وحده دليلًا على دقة التنبؤات أو ربحيتها في التداول.

الوسوم

النص الكامل
# backbone.py


```py
"""PatchTST backbone — verbatim from yuqinie98/PatchTST (MIT License).

Only modification: import paths rewritten to this package.
"""

__all__ = ["PatchTST_backbone"]

# Cell
from collections.abc import Callable
from typing import Optional

import numpy as np
import torch
import torch.nn.functional as F
from torch import Tensor, nn

# from collections import OrderedDict
from case_studies.config.patchtst._reference.layers import (
    Transpose,
    get_activation_fn,
    positional_encoding,
)
from case_studies.config.patchtst._reference.revin import RevIN


# Cell
class PatchTST_backbone(nn.Module):
    def __init__(
        self,
        c_in: int,
        context_window: int,
        target_window: int,
        patch_len: int,
        stride: int,
        max_seq_len: int | None = 1024,
        n_layers: int = 3,
        d_model=128,
        n_heads=16,
        d_k: int | None = None,
        d_v: int | None = None,
        d_ff: int = 256,
        norm: str = "BatchNorm",
        attn_dropout: float = 0.0,
        dropout: float = 0.0,
        act: str = "gelu",
        key_padding_mask: bool = "auto",
        padding_var: int | None = None,
        attn_mask: Tensor | None = None,
        res_attention: bool = True,
        pre_norm: bool = False,
        store_attn: bool = False,
        pe: str = "zeros",
        learn_pe: bool = True,
        fc_dropout: float = 0.0,
        head_dropout=0,
        padding_patch=None,
        pretrain_head: bool = False,
        head_type="flatten",
        individual=False,
        revin=True,
        affine=True,
        subtract_last=False,
        verbose: bool = False,
        **kwargs,
    ):

        super().__init__()

        # RevIn
        self.revin = revin
        if self.revin:
            self.revin_layer = RevIN(c_in, affine=affine, subtract_last=subtract_last)

        # Patching
        self.patch_len = patch_len
        self.stride = stride
        self.padding_patch = padding_patch
        patch_num = int((context_window - patch_len) / stride + 1)
        if padding_patch == "end":  # can be modified to general case
            self.padding_patch_layer = nn.ReplicationPad1d((0, stride))
            patch_num += 1

        # Backbone
        self.backbone = TSTiEncoder(
            c_in,
            patch_num=patch_num,
            patch_len=patch_len,
            max_seq_len=max_seq_len,
            n_layers=n_layers,
            d_model=d_model,
            n_heads=n_heads,
            d_k=d_k,
            d_v=d_v,
            d_ff=d_ff,
            attn_dropout=attn_dropout,
            dropout=dropout,
            act=act,
            key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask,
            padding_var=padding_var,
            attn_mask=attn_mask,
            res_attention=res_attention,
            pre_norm=pre_norm,
            store_attn=store_attn,
            pe=pe,
            learn_pe=learn_pe,
            verbose=verbose,
            **kwargs,
        )

        # Head
        self.head_nf = d_model * patch_num
        self.n_vars = c_in
        self.pretrain_head = pretrain_head
        self.head_type = head_type
        self.individual = individual

        if self.pretrain_head:
            self.head = self.create_pretrain_head(
                self.head_nf, c_in, fc_dropout
            )  # custom head passed as a partial func with all its kwargs
        elif head_type == "flatten":
            self.head = Flatten_Head(
                self.individual, self.n_vars, self.head_nf, target_window, head_dropout=head_dropout
            )

    def forward(self, z):  # z: [bs x nvars x seq_len]
        # norm
        if self.revin:
            z = z.permute(0, 2, 1)
            z = self.revin_layer(z, "norm")
            z = z.permute(0, 2, 1)

        # do patching
        if self.padding_patch == "end":
            z = self.padding_patch_layer(z)
        z = z.unfold(
            dimension=-1, size=self.patch_len, step=self.stride
        )  # z: [bs x nvars x patch_num x patch_len]
        z = z.permute(0, 1, 3, 2)  # z: [bs x nvars x patch_len x patch_num]

        # model
        z = self.backbone(z)  # z: [bs x nvars x d_model x patch_num]
        z = self.head(z)  # z: [bs x nvars x target_window]

        # denorm
        if self.revin:
            z = z.permute(0, 2, 1)
            z = self.revin_layer(z, "denorm")
            z = z.permute(0, 2, 1)
        return z

    def create_pretrain_head(self, head_nf, vars, dropout):
        return nn.Sequential(nn.Dropout(dropout), nn.Conv1d(head_nf, vars, 1))


class Flatten_Head(nn.Module):
    def __init__(self, individual, n_vars, nf, target_window, head_dropout=0):
        super().__init__()

        self.individual = individual
        self.n_vars = n_vars

        if self.individual:
            self.linears = nn.ModuleList()
            self.dropouts = nn.ModuleList()
            self.flattens = nn.ModuleList()
            for i in range(self.n_vars):
                self.flattens.append(nn.Flatten(start_dim=-2))
                self.linears.append(nn.Linear(nf, target_window))
                self.dropouts.append(nn.Dropout(head_dropout))
        else:
            self.flatten = nn.Flatten(start_dim=-2)
            self.linear = nn.Linear(nf, target_window)
            self.dropout = nn.Dropout(head_dropout)

    def forward(self, x):  # x: [bs x nvars x d_model x patch_num]
        if self.individual:
            x_out = []
            for i in range(self.n_vars):
                z = self.flattens[i](x[:, i, :, :])  # z: [bs x d_model * patch_num]
                z = self.linears[i](z)  # z: [bs x target_window]
                z = self.dropouts[i](z)
                x_out.append(z)
            x = torch.stack(x_out, dim=1)  # x: [bs x nvars x target_window]
        else:
            x = self.flatten(x)
            x = self.linear(x)
            x = self.dropout(x)
        return x


class TSTiEncoder(nn.Module):  # i means channel-independent
    def __init__(
        self,
        c_in,
        patch_num,
        patch_len,
        max_seq_len=1024,
        n_layers=3,
        d_model=128,
        n_heads=16,
        d_k=None,
        d_v=None,
        d_ff=256,
        norm="BatchNorm",
        attn_dropout=0.0,
        dropout=0.0,
        act="gelu",
        store_attn=False,
        key_padding_mask="auto",
        padding_var=None,
        attn_mask=None,
        res_attention=True,
        pre_norm=False,
        pe="zeros",
        learn_pe=True,
        verbose=False,
        **kwargs,
    ):

        super().__init__()

        self.patch_num = patch_num
        self.patch_len = patch_len

        # Input encoding
        q_len = patch_num
        self.W_P = nn.Linear(
            patch_len, d_model
        )  # Eq 1: projection of feature vectors onto a d-dim vector space
        self.seq_len = q_len

        # Positional encoding
        self.W_pos = positional_encoding(pe, learn_pe, q_len, d_model)

        # Residual dropout
        self.dropout = nn.Dropout(dropout)

        # Encoder
        self.encoder = TSTEncoder(
            q_len,
            d_model,
            n_heads,
            d_k=d_k,
            d_v=d_v,
            d_ff=d_ff,
            norm=norm,
            attn_dropout=attn_dropout,
            dropout=dropout,
            pre_norm=pre_norm,
            activation=act,
            res_attention=res_attention,
            n_layers=n_layers,
            store_attn=store_attn,
        )

    def forward(self, x) -> Tensor:  # x: [bs x nvars x patch_len x patch_num]

        n_vars = x.shape[1]
        # Input encoding
        x = x.permute(0, 1, 3, 2)  # x: [bs x nvars x patch_num x patch_len]
        x = self.W_P(x)  # x: [bs x nvars x patch_num x d_model]

        u = torch.reshape(
            x, (x.shape[0] * x.shape[1], x.shape[2], x.shape[3])
        )  # u: [bs * nvars x patch_num x d_model]
        u = self.dropout(u + self.W_pos)  # u: [bs * nvars x patch_num x d_model]

        # Encoder
        z = self.encoder(u)  # z: [bs * nvars x patch_num x d_model]
        z = torch.reshape(
            z, (-1, n_vars, z.shape[-2], z.shape[-1])
        )  # z: [bs x nvars x patch_num x d_model]
        z = z.permute(0, 1, 3, 2)  # z: [bs x nvars x d_model x patch_num]

        return z


# Cell
class TSTEncoder(nn.Module):
    def __init__(
        self,
        q_len,
        d_model,
        n_heads,
        d_k=None,
        d_v=None,
        d_ff=None,
        norm="BatchNorm",
        attn_dropout=0.0,
        dropout=0.0,
        activation="gelu",
        res_attention=False,
        n_layers=1,
        pre_norm=False,
        store_attn=False,
    ):
        super().__init__()

        self.layers = nn.ModuleList(
            [
                TSTEncoderLayer(
                    q_len,
                    d_model,
                    n_heads=n_heads,
                    d_k=d_k,
                    d_v=d_v,
                    d_ff=d_ff,
                    norm=norm,
                    attn_dropout=attn_dropout,
                    dropout=dropout,
                    activation=activation,
                    res_attention=res_attention,
                    pre_norm=pre_norm,
                    store_attn=store_attn,
                )
                for i in range(n_layers)
            ]
        )
        self.res_attention = res_attention

    def forward(
        self,
        src: Tensor,
        key_padding_mask: Tensor | None = None,
        attn_mask: Tensor | None = None,
    ):
        output = src
        scores = None
        if self.res_attention:
            for mod in self.layers:
                output, scores = mod(
                    output, prev=scores, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask
                )
            return output
        else:
            for mod in self.layers:
                output = mod(output, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask)
            return output


class TSTEncoderLayer(nn.Module):
    def __init__(
        self,
        q_len,
        d_model,
        n_heads,
        d_k=None,
        d_v=None,
        d_ff=256,
        store_attn=False,
        norm="BatchNorm",
        attn_dropout=0,
        dropout=0.0,
        bias=True,
        activation="gelu",
        res_attention=False,
        pre_norm=False,
    ):
        super().__init__()
        assert not d_model % n_heads, (
            f"d_model ({d_model}) must be divisible by n_heads ({n_heads})"
        )
        d_k = d_model // n_heads if d_k is None else d_k
        d_v = d_model // n_heads if d_v is None else d_v

        # Multi-Head attention
        self.res_attention = res_attention
        self.self_attn = _MultiheadAttention(
            d_model,
            n_heads,
            d_k,
            d_v,
            attn_dropout=attn_dropout,
            proj_dropout=dropout,
            res_attention=res_attention,
        )

        # Add & Norm
        self.dropout_attn = nn.Dropout(dropout)
        if "batch" in norm.lower():
            self.norm_attn = nn.Sequential(
                Transpose(1, 2), nn.BatchNorm1d(d_model), Transpose(1, 2)
            )
        else:
            self.norm_attn = nn.LayerNorm(d_model)

        # Position-wise Feed-Forward
        self.ff = nn.Sequential(
            nn.Linear(d_model, d_ff, bias=bias),
            get_activation_fn(activation),
            nn.Dropout(dropout),
            nn.Linear(d_ff, d_model, bias=bias),
        )

        # Add & Norm
        self.dropout_ffn = nn.Dropout(dropout)
        if "batch" in norm.lower():
            self.norm_ffn = nn.Sequential(Transpose(1, 2), nn.BatchNorm1d(d_model), Transpose(1, 2))
        else:
            self.norm_ffn = nn.LayerNorm(d_model)

        self.pre_norm = pre_norm
        self.store_attn = store_attn

    def forward(
        self,
        src: Tensor,
        prev: Tensor | None = None,
        key_padding_mask: Tensor | None = None,
        attn_mask: Tensor | None = None,
    ) -> Tensor:

        # Multi-Head attention sublayer
        if self.pre_norm:
            src = self.norm_attn(src)
        ## Multi-Head attention
        if self.res_attention:
            src2, attn, scores = self.self_attn(
                src, src, src, prev, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask
            )
        else:
            src2, attn = self.self_attn(
                src, src, src, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask
            )
        if self.store_attn:
            self.attn = attn
        ## Add & Norm
        src = src + self.dropout_attn(src2)  # Add: residual connection with residual dropout
        if not self.pre_norm:
            src = self.norm_attn(src)

        # Feed-forward sublayer
        if self.pre_norm:
            src = self.norm_ffn(src)
        ## Position-wise Feed-Forward
        src2 = self.ff(src)
        ## Add & Norm
        src = src + self.dropout_ffn(src2)  # Add: residual connection with residual dropout
        if not self.pre_norm:
            src = self.norm_ffn(src)

        if self.res_attention:
            return src, scores
        else:
            return src


class _MultiheadAttention(nn.Module):
    def __init__(
        self,
        d_model,
        n_heads,
        d_k=None,
        d_v=None,
        res_attention=False,
        attn_dropout=0.0,
        proj_dropout=0.0,
        qkv_bias=True,
        lsa=False,
    ):
        """Multi Head Attention Layer
        Input shape:
            Q:       [batch_size (bs) x max_q_len x d_model]
            K, V:    [batch_size (bs) x q_len x d_model]
            mask:    [q_len x q_len]
        """
        super().__init__()
        d_k = d_model // n_heads if d_k is None else d_k
        d_v = d_model // n_heads if d_v is None else d_v

        self.n_heads, self.d_k, self.d_v = n_heads, d_k, d_v

        self.W_Q = nn.Linear(d_model, d_k * n_heads, bias=qkv_bias)
        self.W_K = nn.Linear(d_model, d_k * n_heads, bias=qkv_bias)
        self.W_V = nn.Linear(d_model, d_v * n_heads, bias=qkv_bias)

        # Scaled Dot-Product Attention (multiple heads)
        self.res_attention = res_attention
        self.sdp_attn = _ScaledDotProductAttention(
            d_model, n_heads, attn_dropout=attn_dropout, res_attention=self.res_attention, lsa=lsa
        )

        # Poject output
        self.to_out = nn.Sequential(nn.Linear(n_heads * d_v, d_model), nn.Dropout(proj_dropout))

    def forward(
        self,
        Q: Tensor,
        K: Tensor | None = None,
        V: Tensor | None = None,
        prev: Tensor | None = None,
        key_padding_mask: Tensor | None = None,
        attn_mask: Tensor | None = None,
    ):

        bs = Q.size(0)
        if K is None:
            K = Q
        if V is None:
            V = Q

        # Linear (+ split in multiple heads)
        q_s = (
            self.W_Q(Q).view(bs, -1, self.n_heads, self.d_k).transpose(1, 2)
        )  # q_s    : [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x d_k]
        k_s = (
            self.W_K(K).view(bs, -1, self.n_heads, self.d_k).permute(0, 2, 3, 1)
        )  # k_s    : [bs x n_heads x d_k x q_len] - transpose(1,2) + transpose(2,3)
        v_s = (
            self.W_V(V).view(bs, -1, self.n_heads, self.d_v).transpose(1, 2)
        )  # v_s    : [bs x n_heads x q_len x d_v]

        # Apply Scaled Dot-Product Attention (multiple heads)
        if self.res_attention:
            output, attn_weights, attn_scores = self.sdp_attn(
                q_s, k_s, v_s, prev=prev, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask
            )
        else:
            output, attn_weights = self.sdp_attn(
                q_s, k_s, v_s, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask
            )
        # output: [bs x n_heads x q_len x d_v], attn: [bs x n_heads x q_len x q_len], scores: [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x q_len]

        # back to the original inputs dimensions
        output = (
            output.transpose(1, 2).contiguous().view(bs, -1, self.n_heads * self.d_v)
        )  # output: [bs x q_len x n_heads * d_v]
        output = self.to_out(output)

        if self.res_attention:
            return output, attn_weights, attn_scores
        else:
            return output, attn_weights


class _ScaledDotProductAttention(nn.Module):
    r"""Scaled Dot-Product Attention module (Attention is all you need by Vaswani et al., 2017) with optional residual attention from previous layer
    (Realformer: Transformer likes residual attention by He et al, 2020) and locality self sttention (Vision Transformer for Small-Size Datasets
    by Lee et al, 2021)"""

    def __init__(self, d_model, n_heads, attn_dropout=0.0, res_attention=False, lsa=False):
        super().__init__()
        self.attn_dropout = nn.Dropout(attn_dropout)
        self.res_attention = res_attention
        head_dim = d_model // n_heads
        self.scale = nn.Parameter(torch.tensor(head_dim**-0.5), requires_grad=lsa)
        self.lsa = lsa

    def forward(
        self,
        q: Tensor,
        k: Tensor,
        v: Tensor,
        prev: Tensor | None = None,
        key_padding_mask: Tensor | None = None,
        attn_mask: Tensor | None = None,
    ):
        """
        Input shape:
            q               : [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x d_k]
            k               : [bs x n_heads x d_k x seq_len]
            v               : [bs x n_heads x seq_len x d_v]
            prev            : [bs x n_heads x q_len x seq_len]
            key_padding_mask: [bs x seq_len]
            attn_mask       : [1 x seq_len x seq_len]
        Output shape:
            output:  [bs x n_heads x q_len x d_v]
            attn   : [bs x n_heads x q_len x seq_len]
            scores : [bs x n_heads x q_len x seq_len]
        """

        # Scaled MatMul (q, k) - similarity scores for all pairs of positions in an input sequence
        attn_scores = (
            torch.matmul(q, k) * self.scale
        )  # attn_scores : [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x q_len]

        # Add pre-softmax attention scores from the previous layer (optional)
        if prev is not None:
            attn_scores = attn_scores + prev

        # Attention mask (optional)
        if (
            attn_mask is not None
        ):  # attn_mask with shape [q_len x seq_len] - only used when q_len == seq_len
            if attn_mask.dtype == torch.bool:
                attn_scores.masked_fill_(attn_mask, -np.inf)
            else:
                attn_scores += attn_mask

        # Key padding mask (optional)
        if (
            key_padding_mask is not None
        ):  # mask with shape [bs x q_len] (only when max_w_len == q_len)
            attn_scores.masked_fill_(key_padding_mask.unsqueeze(1).unsqueeze(2), -np.inf)

        # normalize the attention weights
        attn_weights = F.softmax(
            attn_scores, dim=-1
        )  # attn_weights   : [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x q_len]
        attn_weights = self.attn_dropout(attn_weights)

        # compute the new values given the attention weights
        output = torch.matmul(attn_weights, v)  # output: [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x d_v]

        if self.res_attention:
            return output, attn_weights, attn_scores
        else:
            return output, attn_weights

```

يُعرض النص كاملًا مع نسبه إلى مصدره وفقًا لترخيصه. الترخيص: MIT

أعدّ وكيل الأبحاث في Stratmill هذا الملخص استنادًا إلى المصدر الأصلي؛ وهو ليس نسخة منه.