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استثمار قيمة ربع سنوي في أسهم US وتصنيف الجودة

مقال Strategy library · المؤلف: QuantRocket

الملخص

يصف المستند استراتيجية أسهم US ربع سنوية تقتصر على مراكز الشراء وتحاكي صندوقًا متداولًا للقيمة من ETF. تبدأ بأسهم NYSE، وتستبعد الشركات المالية وإيصالات الإيداع الأمريكية وكيانات الاستثمار العقاري، ثم تفحص السيولة باستخدام متوسط قيمة التداول بالدولار خلال نافذة 90 يومًا. ومن الأسهم المؤهلة تختار الأرخص عُشرًا وفق EV/EBIT، مع استبعاد الشركات ذات EBIT السلبي، وتحتفظ بالنصف ذي أعلى درجات Piotroski F. وتُوزع الأوزان بالتساوي على الحيازات وتُعاد موازنتها كل ربع سنة.

يجمع مقياس الجودة تسع إشارات تغطي الربحية والتدفق النقدي التشغيلي والرفع المالي والسيولة وإصدار الأسهم والهوامش ودوران الأصول. وتقارن الطريقة في معظم الإشارات الأساسيات الحالية بالفترة المالية السابقة التي أُعلن عنها. يقدم المستند منطق التنفيذ واختيارات حقول البيانات، لكنه لا يقدم نتائج اختبار تاريخي أو دليلًا على الأداء الاستثماري. وتعتمد النتائج على توافر البيانات وتوقيت الإفصاح؛ كما تركز الاستراتيجية على مجموعة ضيقة من الأسهم ولا تحدد ضوابط إضافية لمخاطر المحفظة.

الأفكار الرئيسية

  • تفحص الاستراتيجية سيولة أسهم NYSE قبل ترتيبها وفق EV/EBIT.
  • تستبعد الشركات المالية وإيصالات الإيداع الأمريكية وكيانات الاستثمار العقاري والشركات ذات EBIT السلبي.
  • تستخدم تسع إشارات على نمط Piotroski لترتيب أسهم القيمة المرشحة حسب الجودة الأساسية.
  • توزع المحفظة الأوزان بالتساوي على الأسهم المختارة وتعيد موازنتها كل ربع سنة.
  • يشرح المستند التنفيذ، لكنه لا يقدم اختبارًا تاريخيًا أو دليلًا على الأداء.

الوسوم

النص الكامل
# QuantitativeValue


# QuantitativeValue









Value strategy modeled on Alpha Architect's QVAL ETF.

    Intended to be run with Sharadar fundamentals and prices.

    Strategy rules:

    1. Universe selection
      a. Starting universe: all NYSE stocks
      b. Exclude financials, ADRs, REITs
      c. Liquidity screen: select top N percent of stocks by dollar
         volume (N=60)
    2. Apply value screen: select cheapest N percent of stocks by
       enterprise multiple (EV/EBIT) (N=10)
    3. Rank by quality: of the value stocks, select the N percent
       with the highest quality, as ranked by Piotroski F-Score (N=50)
    4. Apply equal weights
    5. Rebalance portfolio quarterly

## Source (Apache-2.0)

```python
# Copyright QuantRocket LLC - All Rights Reserved
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at
#
#     http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.

import pandas as pd
from moonshot import Moonshot
from moonshot.commission import PerShareCommission
from quantrocket.fundamental import get_sharadar_fundamentals_reindexed_like

class USStockCommission(PerShareCommission):
    BROKER_COMMISSION_PER_SHARE = 0.005

class QuantitativeValue(Moonshot):
    """
    Value strategy modeled on Alpha Architect's QVAL ETF.

    Intended to be run with Sharadar fundamentals and prices.

    Strategy rules:

    1. Universe selection
      a. Starting universe: all NYSE stocks
      b. Exclude financials, ADRs, REITs
      c. Liquidity screen: select top N percent of stocks by dollar
         volume (N=60)
    2. Apply value screen: select cheapest N percent of stocks by
       enterprise multiple (EV/EBIT) (N=10)
    3. Rank by quality: of the value stocks, select the N percent
       with the highest quality, as ranked by Piotroski F-Score (N=50)
    4. Apply equal weights
    5. Rebalance portfolio quarterly
    """

    CODE = "qval"
    DB = "sharadar-us-stk-1d"
    DB_FIELDS = ["Close", "Volume"]
    DOLLAR_VOLUME_TOP_N_PCT = 60
    DOLLAR_VOLUME_WINDOW = 90
    UNIVERSES = "nyse-stk"
    EXCLUDE_UNIVERSES = ["nyse-financials", "nyse-adrs", "nyse-reits"]
    VALUE_TOP_N_PCT = 10
    QUALITY_TOP_N_PCT = 50
    REBALANCE_INTERVAL = "Q"
    COMMISSION_CLASS = USStockCommission

    def prices_to_signals(self, prices: pd.DataFrame):

        # Step 1.c: get a mask of stocks with adequate dollar volume
        closes = prices.loc["Close"]
        volumes = prices.loc["Volume"]
        avg_dollar_volumes = (closes * volumes).rolling(self.DOLLAR_VOLUME_WINDOW).mean()
        dollar_volume_ranks = avg_dollar_volumes.rank(axis=1, ascending=False, pct=True)
        have_adequate_dollar_volumes = dollar_volume_ranks <= (self.DOLLAR_VOLUME_TOP_N_PCT/100)

        # Step 2. Apply value screen: select cheapest N percent of stocks by
        # enterprise multiple (EV/EBITDA) (N=10)
        fundamentals = get_sharadar_fundamentals_reindexed_like(
            closes,
            fields=["EVEBIT", "EBIT"],
            dimension="ART")
        enterprise_multiples = fundamentals.loc["EVEBIT"]
        ebits = fundamentals.loc["EBIT"]
        # Ignore negative earnings
        enterprise_multiples = enterprise_multiples.where(ebits > 0)
        # Only apply rankings to stocks with adequate dollar volume
        value_ranks = enterprise_multiples.where(have_adequate_dollar_volumes).rank(axis=1, ascending=True, pct=True)
        are_value_stocks = value_ranks <= (self.VALUE_TOP_N_PCT/100)

        # Step 3: Rank by quality: of the value stocks, select the N percent
        # with the highest quality, as ranked by Piotroski F-Score (N=50)
        f_scores = self.get_f_scores(closes)
        # Rank the value stocks by F-Score
        quality_ranks = f_scores.where(are_value_stocks).rank(axis=1, ascending=False, pct=True)
        long_signals = quality_ranks <= (self.QUALITY_TOP_N_PCT/100)

        return long_signals.astype(int)

    def get_f_scores(self, closes: pd.DataFrame):

        # Step 1: query relevant indicators
        fundamentals = get_sharadar_fundamentals_reindexed_like(
            closes,
           dimension="ART", # As-reported trailing twelve month reports
           fields=[
               "ROA", # Return on assets
               "ASSETS", # Total Assets
               "NCFO", # Net Cash Flow from Operations
               "DE", # Debt to Equity Ratio
               "CURRENTRATIO", # Current ratio
               "SHARESWA", # Outstanding shares
               "GROSSMARGIN", # Gross margin
               "ASSETTURNOVER", # Asset turnover
           ])
        return_on_assets = fundamentals.loc["ROA"]
        total_assets = fundamentals.loc["ASSETS"]
        operating_cash_flows = fundamentals.loc["NCFO"]
        leverages = fundamentals.loc["DE"]
        current_ratios = fundamentals.loc["CURRENTRATIO"]
        shares_out = fundamentals.loc["SHARESWA"]
        gross_margins = fundamentals.loc["GROSSMARGIN"]
        asset_turnovers = fundamentals.loc["ASSETTURNOVER"]

        # Step 2: many Piotroski F-score components compare current to previous
        # values, so get DataFrames of previous values

        # Step 2.a: get a boolean mask of the first day of each newly reported fiscal
        # period
        fundamentals = get_sharadar_fundamentals_reindexed_like(
            closes,
            dimension="ART", # As-reported trailing twelve month reports
            fields=["REPORTPERIOD"])
        fiscal_periods = fundamentals.loc["REPORTPERIOD"]
        are_new_fiscal_periods = fiscal_periods != fiscal_periods.shift()

        # Step 2.b: shift the ROAs forward one fiscal period by (1) shifting the ratios one day,
        # (2) keeping only the ones that fall on the first day of the newly reported
        # fiscal period, and (3) forward-filling
        previous_return_on_assets = return_on_assets.shift().where(are_new_fiscal_periods).fillna(method="ffill")

        # Step 2.c: Repeat for other indicators
        previous_leverages = leverages.shift().where(are_new_fiscal_periods).fillna(method="ffill")
        previous_current_ratios = current_ratios.shift().where(are_new_fiscal_periods).fillna(method="ffill")
        previous_shares_out = shares_out.shift().where(are_new_fiscal_periods).fillna(method="ffill")
        previous_gross_margins = gross_margins.shift().where(are_new_fiscal_periods).fillna(method="ffill")
        previous_asset_turnovers = asset_turnovers.shift().where(are_new_fiscal_periods).fillna(method="ffill")

        # Step 3: calculate F-Score components; each resulting component is a DataFrame
        # of booleans
        have_positive_return_on_assets = return_on_assets > 0
        have_positive_operating_cash_flows = operating_cash_flows > 0
        have_increasing_return_on_assets = return_on_assets > previous_return_on_assets
        have_more_cash_flow_than_incomes = operating_cash_flows / total_assets > return_on_assets
        have_decreasing_leverages = leverages < previous_leverages
        have_increasing_current_ratios = current_ratios > previous_current_ratios
        have_no_new_shares = shares_out <= previous_shares_out
        have_increasing_gross_margins = gross_margins > previous_gross_margins
        have_increasing_asset_turnovers = asset_turnovers > previous_asset_turnovers

        # Step 4: convert the booleans to integers and sum to get F-Score (0-9)
        f_scores = (
            have_positive_return_on_assets.astype(int)
            + have_positive_operating_cash_flows.astype(int)
            + have_increasing_return_on_assets.astype(int)
            + have_more_cash_flow_than_incomes.astype(int)
            + have_decreasing_leverages.astype(int)
            + have_increasing_current_ratios.astype(int)
            + have_no_new_shares.astype(int)
            + have_increasing_gross_margins.astype(int)
            + have_increasing_asset_turnovers.astype(int)
        )

        self.save_to_results("FScore", f_scores)
        return f_scores

    def signals_to_target_weights(self, signals: pd.DataFrame, prices: pd.DataFrame):
        # Step 4: equal weights
        daily_signal_counts = signals.abs().sum(axis=1)
        weights = signals.div(daily_signal_counts, axis=0).fillna(0)

        # Step 5: Rebalance quarterly
        # Resample daily to quarterly, taking the last day's signal
        # For pandas offset aliases, see https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/timeseries.html#offset-aliases
        weights = weights.resample(self.REBALANCE_INTERVAL).last()
        # Reindex back to daily and fill forward
        weights = weights.reindex(prices.loc["Close"].index, method="ffill")

        return weights

    def target_weights_to_positions(self, weights: pd.DataFrame, prices: pd.DataFrame):
        # Enter the position the day after the signal
        return weights.shift()

    def positions_to_gross_returns(self, positions: pd.DataFrame, prices: pd.DataFrame):

        closes = prices.loc["Close"]
        position_ends = positions.shift()

        # The return is the security's percent change over the period,
        # multiplied by the position.
        gross_returns = closes.pct_change() * position_ends

        return gross_returns

```

يُعرض النص كاملًا مع نسبه إلى مصدره وفقًا لترخيصه. الترخيص: Apache-2.0

أعدّ وكيل الأبحاث في Stratmill هذا الملخص استنادًا إلى المصدر الأصلي؛ وهو ليس نسخة منه.