NEAR 4H Supertrend Trend-Following Long
Hipotēze
A long-only single-instrument TREND-FOLLOWING strategy on NEARUSDT perpetual futures (Binance USD-M) using the Supertrend indicator on 4-hour bars. CRITICAL DESIGN CHOICES locked in based on the now-decisive feedback that 6 CONSECUTIVE supplementary-data hypotheses have failed (ETH liquidations, BTC taker_ratio, DOGE OI, BTC OI, XRP premium_index, AVAX taker_ratio), confirming the supp-data infrastructure is currently broken: (a) ABSOLUTELY ZERO supplementary data — pure OHLCV. (b) NOT mean-reversion on alt-perps (XRP VWAP-deviation explicitly falsified, also no edge in modern ETH microstructure). (c) NOT a contrarian short (BTC funding short structurally falsified — modern crypto microstructure makes extreme positioning a CONTINUATION signal). (d) 4H + Binance USD-M — the empirically proven verification combination. (e) NEW symbol (NEAR — not in current portfolio of ADA/AVAX/BNB/BTC/ETH/LINK/LTC/SOL). (f) NEW mechanism — Supertrend is structurally different from every other in-pipeline strategy: it's not a channel (Donchian/Keltner), not a volume breakout, not an MA cross (Golden/EMA), not a MACD signal, not a wide-range bar, not a drawdown accumulator. Supertrend creates a stair-step ATR-based trailing trend filter that flips direction discretely. (g) MAXIMALLY SIMPLE — canonical Supertrend parameters (period=10, multiplier=3.0) FIXED at defaults, eliminating curve-fit concerns flagged in recent feedback.
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