פירוש IC בחתך רוחב בניתוח מודלי חוזים עתידיים של CME

# 12_model_analysis.py


```py
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# %% [markdown]
# # CME Futures: Model Analysis
#
# This notebook reads the complete canonical model population produced by `06_linear` through
# `10b_stochastic_discount_factor`. Each row retains family, configuration, label, checkpoint, fold
# contract, training identity, and prediction identity. No null label is assigned to another
# horizon, and checkpoints are not collapsed into a single model label.
#
# IC measures whether a configuration ranks the cross-section correctly on a decision date. It
# selects nothing: every row here proceeds to the equal-weight validation backtest in
# `13_backtest`, where Sharpe performs selection and the checkpoint is part of what is selected.
#
# What `ic_mean` and `ic_t` are, precisely, because the two readings are easy to confuse. Both are
# computed **across folds**: `ic_mean` averages each fold's cross-sectional IC, and `ic_t` divides
# that by the *standard error* of the same five numbers, which is their dispersion divided by the
# square root of how many are defined - not the dispersion itself. `ic_std` in the table below is
# the dispersion, so reproducing `ic_t` from the two columns needs the `sqrt(n_folds_ic)` factor.
#
# The registry also computes the daily-series reading with its HAC standard error, which is the
# inferential statistic, but the predictions reader does not surface it, so it is not in the table
# below. `ic_n_days` is carried instead: it
# counts the validation dates that produced a defined IC, and a configuration whose predictions
# collapse to near-constant on some dates has its `ic_mean` measured over fewer of them. Reading
# `ic_mean` without `ic_n_days` is how a partial-coverage artifact reads as a leader.

# %% [markdown]
# ## What an information coefficient measures, and what it cannot
#
# Everything in the table below is built on the IC, so it is worth being exact about what the
# number is before reading any of it.
#
# On one decision date there is a set of products, a predicted return for each, and the return
# each actually went on to earn. The IC is the rank correlation between those two lists. It asks
# a deliberately narrow question: did the model put them **in the right order**? It does not ask
# whether the predicted magnitudes were close, and it cannot - a model that predicts every return
# at a hundredth of its true size scores exactly as well as one that gets the levels right, as
# long as the ordering matches.
#
# That narrowness is the point for a strategy of this shape. The backtest in `13_backtest` holds
# the top-ranked products and shorts the bottom-ranked ones in equal weight, so the ordering is
# the entire input and the magnitudes are discarded before a position is taken. A diagnostic that
# rewarded accurate levels would be measuring something the strategy never uses.
#
# **It is computed per decision date and then averaged, never pooled.** Pooling every
# product-date into one correlation would let a period when the whole market moved together
# masquerade as skill at telling products apart: on a day when everything rallies, a model that
# ranks products at random still shows agreement between its predictions and the outcomes if the
# cross-sections are stacked. Correlating within a date and averaging afterwards removes the
# common move by construction, because it is the same for every product on that date.
#
# ### Why a good IC is a small number
#
# A reader arriving from a forecasting background should expect these to look disappointing. A
# monthly-horizon equity or futures IC of 0.03 to 0.05 is a real, usable signal; 0.10 sustained
# would be remarkable. This is not a weak result being excused - it is what predicting an
# overwhelmingly noise-dominated quantity looks like when it works. The edge comes from applying
# a small consistent tilt across many products and many dates, not from being right about any one
# of them, and the arithmetic of that is what `13_backtest` measures and this notebook does not.
#
# ### Why the ranking diagnostic selects nothing
#
# A high IC does not imply a tradeable strategy, and this is the boundary the notebook's title
# refers to. A configuration can rank the cross-section well and still lose money: if its ranking
# churns from one decision to the next, the turnover it implies costs more than the tilt earns; if
# its skill sits entirely in the products that are least liquid, the positions cannot be taken at
# the prices the backtest assumes. Neither of those is visible in an IC, because an IC has no
# notion of holding anything.
#
# So nothing here is a decision. Every complete row in this catalog proceeds to the equal-weight
# validation backtest, where Sharpe selects and the checkpoint is part of what is selected. This
# notebook is where a reader forms an expectation and, more usefully, notices where the backtest
# later disagrees with it - a configuration that ranks well and backtests badly is the most
# informative row in the whole case study, because the gap between the two is exactly where
# turnover and tradeability live.

# %%
"""Analyze complete CME futures model and causal result catalogs."""

import json

import numpy as np
import polars as pl

from case_studies.cme_futures.research_workflow import (
    ALL_LABELS,
    CASE_STUDY,
    MODEL_POPULATION_NAMES,
    official_prediction_catalog,
    open_study,
    product_universe_table,
)
from case_studies.research import CausalResult, require_declared_menu_coverage
from utils.paths import get_case_study_dir

# %% tags=["parameters"]
EXECUTION_TIER = "canonical"
WORKSPACE: str | None = None

# %% [markdown]
# ## Complete prediction catalog
#
# The six official population snapshots were created before their model runs. Opening all six and
# calling `require_complete` means a failed configuration or checkpoint cannot disappear from this
# analysis because another row happened to finish.

# %%
if EXECUTION_TIER == "preview" and WORKSPACE is None:
    raise ValueError("preview execution requires WORKSPACE")
study = open_study(execution_tier=EXECUTION_TIER, workspace=WORKSPACE)
universe = product_universe_table()
universe

# %% [markdown]
# Canonical analysis reads the six published population snapshots, which is the whole point of
# freezing them before their runs. A preview has no published population to read: it is a reduced
# re-execution whose rows exist only in its own workspace and which is deliberately excluded from
# every official population. It reads its own complete validation predictions instead, and the
# comparison against the declared menus below is skipped with them, because a preview fits a named
# subset by design and would fail that comparison on every configuration it left out.

# %%
if EXECUTION_TIER == "canonical":
    catalog = official_prediction_catalog(study, MODEL_POPULATION_NAMES)
else:
    catalog = (
        study.predictions.table(include_preview=True)
        .filter(
            (pl.col("execution_tier") == "preview")
            & (pl.col("split") == "validation")
            & pl.col("complete")
        )
        .sort("label", "family", "config_name", "checkpoint_kind", "checkpoint_value")
    )
    if catalog.is_empty():
        raise RuntimeError("preview execution registered no complete validation predictions")


def _feature_count(spec_json: str) -> int:
    spec = json.loads(spec_json)
    computation = spec.get("computation", spec)
    return len(computation.get("feature_names") or [])


analysis = catalog.with_columns(
    pl.col("spec_json").map_elements(_feature_count, return_dtype=pl.Int64).alias("feature_count")
).select(
    "family",
    "config_name",
    "label",
    "checkpoint_kind",
    "checkpoint_value",
    "feature_count",
    "ic_mean",
    "ic_t",
    "ic_n_days",
    "n_folds",
    "training_hash",
    "prediction_hash",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ### Every declared model is here
#
# Each execution notebook checks that it produced everything **it** requested, so none of them can
# see a configuration that no notebook requests at all - a menu entry nobody claimed publishes
# nothing and every completeness check still passes. This is the one place the families reassemble,
# so it is the only place that check can be made. `require_declared_menu_coverage` compares
# `(family, label, config_name)` against the training menus and raises on either direction: a
# declared model the population omits, or a model in the population that no menu declares.
#
# It returns the rows knowingly excluded, so what this notebook is missing is displayed rather than
# taken on trust. `causal_dml` is not in the comparison - it is not a predictive family and the
# adapter registry, not a list here, is what decides that.

# %%
if EXECUTION_TIER == "canonical":
    excluded = require_declared_menu_coverage(analysis, case_study=CASE_STUDY)
else:
    excluded = analysis.clear()
excluded

# %% tags=["results"]
analysis.sort("label", "family", "config_name", "checkpoint_value")

# %% [markdown]
# ## Interpretation boundaries
#
# The table compares ranking diagnostics under the declared walk-forward protocol. The backtest
# engine supplies portfolio returns, transaction costs, contract sizing, and roll execution before
# selection.
#
# The distinction is worth stating as a rule rather than as a caveat: **every quantity in this
# notebook is a property of the predictions, and every quantity that decides anything is a
# property of a portfolio.** A prediction has no size, no holding period, no financing and no
# execution price. Those enter in `13_backtest`, and they are capable of reordering the table
# below completely - which is why a leaderboard here is a hypothesis about the backtest rather
# than a preview of it.
#
# Conformal weighting, when used later as an allocator, calibrates chronologically from prior
# validation observations. It uses the calibration-window scale and the finite-sample higher order
# statistic. It does not fit a scale on the evaluation fold or pool all folds before calibration.

# %% [markdown]
# ## Causal diagnostics
#
# Double machine learning answers a different question from prediction. The treatment effect is
# conditioned on the configured confounders, and HAC uncertainty follows the decision-time order.
# A covariance-estimator failure is not relabeled as HAC. The shared runner must return a finite HAC
# standard error for a result to be complete.
#
# **The `refutation_p` column below is not evidence that these effects survived a placebo test.**
# The refutation permutes contiguous blocks within each product, and the shared runner sizes those
# blocks as `max(label_buffer, treatment_window)`. `causal.treatment_window` is 1 here, so the label
# buffer binds and the registered rows carry a 21-period block for `fwd_ret_21d` and a 5-period
# block for `fwd_ret_5d`. Neither length is a property of `carry_pct`, whose own persistence the
# cell below measures on this case study's feature panel: the autocorrelation is pooled within
# product, each product demeaned before pooling so a level difference between products cannot
# stand in for persistence within one, and on one row per product-session, because the block
# counts sessions.
#
# **The two blocks sit at very different points on that profile, so the concern bears much more
# on one label than the other.** Read the block lengths against the autocorrelation at those
# lags rather than against the half-life: the decay is slower than the AR(1) half-life implies -
# an AR(1) with this lag-1 value would sit at 0.38 by lag 5 and 0.02 by lag 21, where the panel
# is at 0.52 and 0.14 - so the half-life is a lower bound on persistence, not the yardstick for
# the block. At the 5-session block used for `fwd_ret_5d` the autocorrelation is still 0.52, so that
# block leaves real dependence unpreserved; the placebo is a weaker opponent than the truth and
# `fwd_ret_5d`'s empirical p-value is biased toward zero by some amount this notebook does not
# quantify. At the 21-session block used for `fwd_ret_21d` it is 0.14, and indistinguishable
# from zero by lag 63, so that block spans most of the dependence and the concern is
# correspondingly weaker there.
#
# **That is no longer what the column reports, and the reason is worth following.** `fwd_ret_5d`
# used to sit at 0.0396 and `fwd_ret_21d` at 0.0099, which is 1/101 and the floor 100 draws can
# report. The refutation now compares HAC t-statistics rather than raw effects, because a permuted
# treatment is not predictable from the controls, its residual keeps nearly all its variance, and
# that variance is the denominator of the second-stage effect - so every placebo effect was divided
# by a larger number than the observed one. Correcting that moved `fwd_ret_5d` to 0.5545 and
# `fwd_ret_21d` to 0.2673, both `Fails`, on an identical fit. The block-length argument above is a
# separate, uncorrected narrowing and it bears mainly on `fwd_ret_5d`; either way it is no longer
# visible in these two numbers. Read the DML point estimate and its HAC standard error. The
# refutation column is recorded for completeness and carries no evidence here.

# %%
# The panel carries one row per contract position, so a product-session appears up to three
# times with the same carry_pct. Lagging without de-duplicating steps ~2.78 rows per session
# and reports a persistence profile stretched by that factor. The block the refutation permutes
# counts sessions - run_dml_analysis requires strictly increasing timestamps within a product -
# so sessions are the scale the two have to be compared on.
carry = (
    pl.read_parquet(get_case_study_dir(CASE_STUDY) / "features" / "financial.parquet")
    .select(["product", "timestamp", "carry_pct"])
    .drop_nulls()
    .unique(subset=["product", "timestamp"])
    .sort(["product", "timestamp"])
)
autocorr = []
for lag in (1, 5, 21, 63):
    paired = (
        carry.with_columns(pl.col("carry_pct").shift(lag).over("product").alias("lagged"))
        .drop_nulls()
        .with_columns(
            (pl.col("carry_pct") - pl.col("carry_pct").mean().over("product")).alias("x"),
            (pl.col("lagged") - pl.col("lagged").mean().over("product")).alias("y"),
        )
    )
    rho = (paired["x"] * paired["y"]).sum() / (
        ((paired["x"] ** 2).sum() * (paired["y"] ** 2).sum()) ** 0.5
    )
    autocorr.append({"lag": lag, "autocorrelation": rho, "n_pairs": paired.height})
carry_persistence = pl.DataFrame(autocorr)
half_life = np.log(0.5) / np.log(carry_persistence["autocorrelation"][0])
print(
    f"carry_pct within-product pooled autocorrelation, "
    f"AR(1) half-life {half_life:.1f} sessions from lag 1"
)
carry_persistence

# %%
causal_rows = []
for label in ALL_LABELS:
    result = CausalResult.one(study, label=label, execution_tier=EXECUTION_TIER)
    if not result.complete:
        raise RuntimeError(f"causal result for {label} is incomplete")
    causal_rows.append({"label": label, "causal_hash": result.hash, **result.metrics})
causal = pl.DataFrame(causal_rows).sort("label")

# %% tags=["results"]
causal

# %% [markdown]
# ## What proceeds to backtesting
#
# All complete prediction rows proceed. The next notebook passes the selected Polars rows directly
# to the shared backtest call, publishes product-keyed decisions, and records contract, roll, price,
# and prediction lineage. Validation backtest Sharpe, with the prediction checkpoint included in the
# configuration identity, is the selection statistic.

```