רשתות עצביות טבלאיות עם אנסמבלים בעלי בסיס משותף לדירוג ETF

# 08_tabular_dl.py


```py
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# %% [markdown]
# # ETFs: a neural network on the same flat table, and what an ensemble of them costs
#
# [`06_linear`](06_linear.ipynb) and [`07_gbm`](07_gbm.ipynb) read the same design matrix: one row
# per fund per decision date, one column per feature, no notion that the rows are ordered in time.
# They differ in what they can represent. A penalized linear model gives each feature one
# coefficient and can spread weight across a group of near-duplicate columns. A tree ensemble can
# express an interaction - a condition on one feature evaluated inside a region defined by
# others - but it reaches an interaction by choosing one column at each split, and the feature set
# here is **collinear**: several columns carry almost the same information, so which one gets
# chosen is close to arbitrary.
#
# A neural network on the same table is a third answer to the same question. Its first layer is a
# weighted sum of every feature, so like a linear model it never has to choose among correlated
# columns; the nonlinearity after it means the sums can be combined into interactions the linear
# model cannot write down. That is the reason to try one here rather than a general preference for
# neural networks: the two properties that pulled against each other in the previous two notebooks
# are not obviously in conflict in this architecture.
#
# **TabM is an ensemble, and the ensemble is the point.** Averaging several independently
# initialized networks is a standard way to make a neural fit on a small table less erratic, and
# the cost is that you train several networks. TabM trains most of one. A two-layer network - the
# backbone - is shared by every member. Each member then owns two small things of its own: a
# vector carrying one number per hidden unit, which multiplies the backbone's output element by
# element, and its own final linear layer turning that scaled output into a prediction. The
# members' predictions are averaged. So what differs between members is one vector and one output
# layer each, set against a backbone whose two layers are as wide as the hidden size - which is
# why adding members grows the model far more slowly than training that many separate networks
# would. The grid here varies two dials together: the width of the shared backbone and the number
# of members.
#
# **A neural fit has a meaningful state at every epoch**, in the way a boosted model has one at
# every iteration and a linear fit does not. An **epoch** is one pass over the training rows. The
# configurations here train for 200 of them and save the weights every 25, so each configuration
# produces eight scoreable models rather than one, and each is registered separately. The count
# that matters downstream is configurations times checkpoints, not configurations.
#
# **Learning objectives.** By the end of this notebook you will be able to:
#
# - Describe what a weight-sharing ensemble holds in common between its members and what it keeps
#   separate, and say why that makes *k* members cost far less than *k* networks.
# - Read the epoch schedule out of a declared configuration and say how many scoreable models the
#   run will publish for it.
# - Read a curve of out-of-sample ranking accuracy against training epoch, and tell apart a model
#   still learning from one that has started fitting the training window.
# - Say why comparing configurations at their own individual best epochs is a choice made after
#   seeing the answer, and where in this case study that choice is legitimately made instead.
# - Recognise when a model has predicted nearly the same value for every fund on a date, why that
#   date then contributes nothing to the ranking measure, and how to keep such a configuration out
#   of a comparison.
#
# **Book reference**: Chapter 12, Section 12.3 (Deep Learning Alternatives). Chapter 6, Section 6.7
# (Search accounting and run logging) introduces the run log this notebook writes to.
#
# **Prerequisites**: [`03_financial_features`](03_financial_features.ipynb) and
# [`04_model_based_features`](04_model_based_features.ipynb) have written the feature matrices,
# [`05_evaluation`](05_evaluation.ipynb) has established the walk-forward folds, and
# [`06_linear`](06_linear.ipynb) and [`07_gbm`](07_gbm.ipynb) fitted the two populations this one
# sits beside.
#
# **What it writes**: one training run per configuration and one complete validation prediction set
# per configuration and epoch checkpoint, in `run_log/registry.db` and under `run_log/training/`
# and `run_log/predictions/`, grouped under a named population.
# [`13_model_analysis`](13_model_analysis.ipynb) compares that population against the other
# families, and [`14_backtest`](14_backtest.ipynb) backtests every member and selects on validation
# backtest Sharpe. **Selection happens there, not here.** The ranking below shows what capacity and
# training length do to a ranking measure; it decides nothing.

# %%
"""Fit the declared ETF tabular neural-network population on the walk-forward folds."""

import plotly.graph_objects as go
import polars as pl
from plotly.subplots import make_subplots

from case_studies.research import (
    declared_labels,
    load_model_configs,
    model_requests,
    narrows_declared_catalog,
    open_study,
    primary_label,
    resolved_model_plan,
    run_model_population,
)
from utils.style import COLORS, show_plotly_with_alt

# %% tags=["parameters"]
LABELS: list[str] = []
EXECUTION_TIER = "canonical"
WORKSPACE: str = ""
PREVIEW_REDUCTIONS: dict = {}
CONFIG_NAMES: list[str] = []
POPULATION_NAME = ""
SUPERSEDES_POPULATION: str = ""
DEVICE: str = ""

# %%
study = open_study("etfs", execution_tier=EXECUTION_TIER, workspace=WORKSPACE or None)

# %% [markdown]
# ## 1. Which labels, and which models
#
# The labels are the two the previous notebooks fitted: `fwd_ret_21d`, the total return over the 21
# trading days after the decision date, and the five-day variant `fwd_ret_5d`. Each carries its own
# training menu at `config/training/{label}.yaml`, and this notebook fits the union of them, so the
# family covers the same horizons the linear and boosted families do and nothing downstream has to
# work around a horizon that was never fitted. `LABELS` restricts the run to a subset when you want
# one.

# %%
declared_labels(study, "tabular_dl")

# %% [markdown]
# The menu names three configurations, and each resolves to a preset in
# `case_studies/config/tabm/`. `hidden_dim` is the width of the shared network - how many units
# each of its layers has - and `n_members` is how many rescaled views of that network are averaged
# together. The three step both dials at once, from 64 units and 4 members to 256 and 16, so the
# grid asks whether a bigger and more heavily averaged model does better on a cross-section of
# fewer than a hundred funds; it does not separate width from ensemble size. `dropout` is the
# fraction of units switched off at random on each training pass, which stops the network leaning
# on any one of them.
#
# `n_epochs` and `checkpoint_interval` are declared alongside the architecture rather than passed
# in here, because they decide how many prediction sets each configuration owes: 200 epochs saved
# every 25 is eight, and a run that quietly trained for fewer would publish a different population
# under the same name.

# %%
configs = load_model_configs(
    study,
    "tabular_dl",
    labels=LABELS or None,
    config_names=CONFIG_NAMES or None,
)
# Every row of this family is the same network, so the estimator column the linear and boosted
# menus vary is dropped here and the declared parameters carry the whole difference.
configs.select("label", "config_name", "params")

# %% [markdown]
# `LABELS` and `CONFIG_NAMES` both narrow what is fitted, and a narrowed run declares a different
# set of members than the canonical population does. A population is immutable once written, so
# such a run must publish under its own name. Comparing the loaded rows against the complete
# declared catalog catches either knob, and says so here rather than several cells later in a
# message about hashes.
#
# The device is checked in the same cell. A network trained on a GPU and the same network trained on
# a CPU accumulate their sums in different orders and reach different weights, so the device is
# part of what the fitted model is and is recorded inside the computation's identity rather than
# beside it. `PUBLISHED_DEVICE` is the device this population was fitted on. The runner refuses to
# substitute a CPU for a requested GPU rather than publishing a different model under the published
# name, so on a machine with no NVIDIA card this notebook stops at the next cell; set
# `DEVICE="cpu"` and pass a `POPULATION_NAME` to fit the same grid there.

# %%
PUBLISHED_DEVICE = "cuda"
device = DEVICE or PUBLISHED_DEVICE
print(f"training device: {device}")

if (
    narrows_declared_catalog(study, "tabular_dl", configs) or device != PUBLISHED_DEVICE
) and not POPULATION_NAME:
    raise ValueError(
        f"this run declares {configs.height} label-configuration pairs on device {device!r}, "
        f"which is not the complete declared catalog on {PUBLISHED_DEVICE!r}, so it cannot "
        f"publish the canonical population; pass POPULATION_NAME to give it its own"
    )

# %% [markdown]
# ## 2. Binding the declarations to the data
#
# A menu entry says which network to fit. It does not say which feature columns exist today, where
# the walk-forward folds fall, or which fund-date pairs have both a feature row and a label.
# **Resolving** a request goes and finds all of that: it reads the label and feature files,
# computes the fold boundaries from the walk-forward parameters in `config/setup.yaml`, and works
# out the exact set of rows each fit is expected to predict.
#
# Resolving reads the inputs and fits nothing, so the plan can be inspected before any training
# starts. Four things to check in it:
#
# - **`feature_count`, `eligible_entities` and `eligible_rows` agree across every row of a label.**
#   They are the width of the design matrix, the number of ETFs, and the number of fund-date pairs
#   to be predicted. A row that differs is a configuration being measured on a different sample
#   from its neighbours, and its results are not comparable with theirs.
# - **`folds` is the same everywhere**, and equals the number of walk-forward splits
#   `05_evaluation` established.
# - **`validation_start` and `validation_end` bracket the development sample.** The held-out tail
#   must not appear here: it is scored once, at the end of the case study, and any of it visible in
#   this window would mean it had been used to choose something.
# - **`checkpoints` is 8**, the epoch schedule declared above. Multiply it by the number of rows to
#   get the number of candidate models this notebook is about to create.
#
# Each row also carries a `training_hash`: the identity of that computation, derived from
# everything that can change its result. [`RUN_LOG.md`](../RUN_LOG.md#identity) sets out what goes
# into one and what follows from it.

# %%
requests = model_requests(
    study,
    configs,
    execution_tier=EXECUTION_TIER,
    overrides={"device": device},
    preview_reductions=PREVIEW_REDUCTIONS,
)
resolved = tuple(request.resolve() for request in requests)

plan = resolved_model_plan(resolved)
plan.select(
    "config_name",
    "feature_count",
    "eligible_entities",
    "eligible_rows",
    "folds",
    "checkpoints",
    "validation_start",
    "validation_end",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ## 3. Fitting the population
#
# `run_model_population` fits every resolved request. For one request it walks the folds, and on
# each one:
#
# 1. takes the rows inside that fold's training window,
# 2. fills missing feature values with the training window's median for that column, then
#    standardizes each column to zero mean and unit variance - both fitted on the training rows
#    only and then applied to the validation rows, so nothing from the validation window reaches
#    the fit. A network needs this where a tree does not: gradient descent on inputs whose scales
#    differ by orders of magnitude takes steps that are far too large in one direction and far too
#    small in another,
# 3. trains for the declared number of epochs, writing the weights to disk every 25,
# 4. predicts the fold's validation rows from each saved set of weights.
#
# Step 4 is what makes one training run produce eight results. The fold predictions are
# concatenated into one series per checkpoint covering the whole validation period, and each
# becomes its own registered prediction set with its own identity. Preparing a fold - slicing the
# window, imputing, standardizing - depends on the data and not on the network, so it is work
# several configurations could share. They share it when the requests are handed to the runner
# unresolved, because that path walks folds on the outside and configurations on the inside.
# Resolved first, as they are here so that the plan above can be shown against the real data,
# each configuration prepares its own folds. That costs seconds on a cross-section this size and
# buys a plan that can be read before anything is fitted.
#
# **What the call publishes is a population**: a named, immutable list of the prediction sets it is
# going to produce. The list is computed from the resolved specifications before the first fit and
# written down, and afterwards every member must exist and be complete. That is what makes the
# downstream comparison well defined - `14_backtest` backtests this population, not whatever
# predictions happen to be in the registry - and it is why a configuration that raises fails the
# whole call rather than publishing a population one member short. Everything that finished stays
# registered, and re-running trains only what is missing.
#
# `SUPERSEDES_POPULATION` names the population hash this run replaces, and is empty because this is
# the first generation to be published under this name. A population is the set of prediction
# identities, so anything that moves a training identity - a changed epoch schedule as much as a
# changed configuration menu - produces a different population under the same name, and the
# registry refuses to write it without being told which snapshot it supersedes. That lineage is the
# only record of which generation is which, and the hash is part of what a snapshot is hashed over,
# so a later run that changed something must carry the value it replaced rather than an empty one.
# A reduced-scale run passes it empty whatever the default is: a population produced under a
# reduction is thrown away with the workspace it was written to, so it has no lineage to extend.
#
# The default name is the contract with the notebooks downstream - `13_model_analysis` and
# `14_backtest` resolve this population by name - rather than a label of convenience, which is why
# a run that narrows the member set has to pass its own.

# %%
population_name = POPULATION_NAME or "etfs-tabular_dl-validation-v1"
execution, population = run_model_population(
    study,
    resolved,
    population_name=population_name,
    supersedes=SUPERSEDES_POPULATION or None,
)

reused = sum(1 for item in execution.diagnostics if item.get("reused"))
print(
    f"{len(execution.runs)} configurations: {len(execution.runs) - reused} trained, {reused} read"
)
print(f"population {population.name}: {len(population.members)} prediction sets")

# %% [markdown]
# `reused` is not zero on a second run. Every identity is re-derived from the inputs, the registry
# already holds the matching rows and the saved weights, and the runner returns the stored result
# rather than training again - so re-running this notebook unchanged costs the time it takes to
# read the data.
#
# ### Running configurations of your own
#
# The published run log is read-only. To add runs, open the study against a workspace, which holds
# its own registry and artifacts and reads the same labels and features:
#
# ```python
# study = open_study("etfs", workspace="~/ml4t-experiments")
# configs = load_model_configs(
#     study, "tabular_dl", labels=["fwd_ret_21d"], config_names=["tabm_s", "tabm_xl"]
# )
# requests = model_requests(study, configs, overrides={"device": "cuda"})
# resolved = tuple(request.resolve() for request in requests)
# execution, population = run_model_population(study, resolved, population_name="my-tabm-v1")
# ```
#
# `CONFIG_NAMES` fits a subset of what the menu already declares; a name the menu does not declare
# raises rather than quietly fitting fewer models than you asked for. To fit something new, add a
# preset at `case_studies/config/tabm/tabm_xl.yaml` and list `tabm_xl` under `tabular_dl:` in the
# label's menu. Editing an existing preset changes that configuration's identity, so its result
# registers as a new row beside the old one instead of replacing it - and that includes `n_epochs`
# and `checkpoint_interval`, which decide how many members the population has.
#
# Give the run its own `population_name`: a name refers to one set of members permanently, and
# reusing it for a different set raises. Everything downstream reads the registry rather than the
# notebook, so predictions produced this way are selected and backtested on the same footing as the
# ones shipped here, inside your workspace.
# [`RUN_LOG.md`](../RUN_LOG.md#running-your-own-configurations) covers the rest, including how to
# rehearse on a reduced universe first.

# %% [markdown]
# ## 4. What came out
#
# One row per configuration and epoch checkpoint, read back from the registry. `ic_mean` is the
# **information coefficient**: on each validation date, rank the funds by the model's prediction,
# rank them by the return they went on to earn, correlate the two rankings, and average that daily
# correlation over the validation period. It measures whether the model orders the cross-section
# correctly, on a scale where zero is no relationship.
#
# `ic_n_days` is how many validation dates produced a defined correlation, and it decides which
# rows below are comparable with each other. A network that has settled into predicting nearly the
# same value for every fund on a date gives that date no spread to rank, a constant has no rank
# correlation with anything, and the date drops out of the average. Such a configuration's
# `ic_mean` is then an average over the dates where it happened to stay non-degenerate, which is a
# different sample from its neighbours'. `full_coverage` marks the rows measured on every date
# their own label offers, and everything charted below is restricted to those.
#
# **Coverage is judged within a label, not across them.** A 21-day label runs out of forward window
# earlier than a five-day label does, so it has fewer scoreable dates before any model is fitted,
# and one global maximum would mark the whole 21-day grid incomplete for a reason that has nothing
# to do with the models.

# %% tags=["results"]
catalog = (
    execution.catalog_rows.select(
        "config_name",
        "label",
        "complete",
        "checkpoint_value",
        "ic_mean",
        "ic_std",
        "ic_n_days",
        "n_folds",
        "training_hash",
        "prediction_hash",
    )
    .sort(["label", "ic_mean"], descending=[False, True])
    .join(
        configs.select("config_name", "label", "params"),
        on=["config_name", "label"],
        how="left",
    )
)

if catalog.filter(~pl.col("complete")).height:
    raise RuntimeError("tabular_dl execution returned a partial prediction set")

catalog = catalog.with_columns(
    full_coverage=pl.col("ic_n_days") == pl.col("ic_n_days").max().over("label")
)

primary = primary_label(study)
present = sorted(set(catalog.get_column("label")))
# The primary label leads when it was fitted. A subset run that leaves it out orders the panels by
# whichever label it did fit rather than by one that is not there.
panel_labels = [label for label in [primary] if label in present] + [
    label for label in present if label != primary
]
order_label = panel_labels[0]
print(f"{catalog.height} candidate models: {catalog.n_unique('config_name')} configurations")
print(f"at {catalog.n_unique('checkpoint_value')} checkpoints each, on {len(panel_labels)} labels")
catalog.select(
    "label",
    "config_name",
    "params",
    "checkpoint_value",
    "ic_mean",
    "ic_std",
    "ic_n_days",
    "full_coverage",
).head(12)

# %% [markdown]
# ### What more training does
#
# Each line traces one configuration's out-of-sample IC as epochs are added to it. This is the
# figure the checkpoint dimension exists to produce, and it separates two things a single
# end-of-training number cannot.
#
# A line that rises and then falls has an interior optimum: the network was still learning, then
# began fitting the training window at the expense of the validation folds. A line that wanders
# around zero without trend never had anything to learn in the first place, and its highest point
# is wherever the noise happened to peak. Both produce a respectable-looking maximum, which is why
# the maximum is not what a configuration is judged on.
#
# One panel per label, each with its own vertical scale, because a horizon that has something to
# learn and one that does not would be averaged into a single indistinct band if they shared axes.

# %%
curves = catalog.filter("full_coverage").sort("label", "config_name", "checkpoint_value")
charted = set(curves.get_column("config_name"))
# Menu order, which is the order the frame in section 1 showed and the order the presets step
# capacity in. Sorting on the formatted parameter string instead would order 128 before 64.
config_order = [
    name
    for name in configs.get_column("config_name").unique(maintain_order=True)
    if name in charted
]
# One colour per configuration, so the same configuration keeps its colour in both figures. Three
# configurations against three distinct line colours; a fourth would need a fourth colour rather
# than a wrapped palette that gives two configurations the same swatch.
line_colors = [COLORS["blue"], COLORS["copper"], COLORS["amber"], COLORS["positive"]]
if len(config_order) > len(line_colors):
    raise ValueError(
        f"{len(config_order)} configurations against {len(line_colors)} distinct line colours; "
        "add colours rather than letting two configurations share one"
    )
color_of = dict(zip(config_order, line_colors, strict=False))

fig_curves = make_subplots(
    rows=len(panel_labels),
    cols=1,
    shared_xaxes=True,
    vertical_spacing=0.06,
    subplot_titles=[
        f"{label} ({'primary' if label == primary else 'variant'})" for label in panel_labels
    ],
)
for row, label in enumerate(panel_labels, start=1):
    panel = curves.filter(pl.col("label") == label)
    for config_name in config_order:
        series = panel.filter(pl.col("config_name") == config_name).sort("checkpoint_value")
        if not series.height:
            continue
        fig_curves.add_trace(
            go.Scatter(
                x=series.get_column("checkpoint_value").to_list(),
                y=series.get_column("ic_mean").to_list(),
                mode="lines+markers",
                name=config_name,
                legendgroup=config_name,
                showlegend=row == 1,
                line=dict(color=color_of[config_name], width=2),
                marker=dict(size=6, color=color_of[config_name]),
            ),
            row=row,
            col=1,
        )
    fig_curves.add_hline(
        y=0, line_width=1, line_dash="dash", line_color=COLORS["neutral"], row=row, col=1
    )
    fig_curves.update_yaxes(title_text="Mean IC (validation)", row=row, col=1)
fig_curves.update_xaxes(title_text="Training epochs completed", row=len(panel_labels), col=1)
fig_curves.update_layout(
    title="Validation IC against training epoch, by configuration and label",
    height=330 * len(panel_labels),
    width=1000,
    margin=dict(t=90),
    legend=dict(title_text="Configuration"),
)
# The span of each panel and how many of its lines cross zero are facts about the frame, so the
# description reads them rather than asserting them.
panel_facts = {
    row["label"]: row
    for row in curves.group_by("label")
    .agg(
        lowest=pl.col("ic_mean").min(),
        highest=pl.col("ic_mean").max(),
        total=pl.col("config_name").n_unique(),
        below=pl.col("config_name").filter(pl.col("ic_mean") < 0).n_unique(),
    )
    .to_dicts()
}
panel_text = ". ".join(
    "The {} panel spans {:+.3f} to {:+.3f}, with {} of its {} lines dipping below zero at some "
    "checkpoint".format(
        label,
        panel_facts[label]["lowest"],
        panel_facts[label]["highest"],
        panel_facts[label]["below"],
        panel_facts[label]["total"],
    )
    for label in panel_labels
)
show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig_curves,
    "Line charts of mean validation information coefficient against the number of training epochs "
    "completed, one line per configuration in dark navy, copper and gold, with a marker at each "
    "saved checkpoint. One panel per label, each with its own vertical scale and a dashed zero "
    f"line. {panel_text}.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ### Comparing the three at the same training length
#
# The chart below drops the checkpoint dimension by taking each configuration's final state, so all
# three are compared at the same amount of training. That is the comparison that requires choosing
# nothing after the fact. The configurations are in the same order in both panels, the order the
# menu declares them in, which steps the width and the member count up together - so a panel
# that slopes in one direction is a horizon where capacity moved the ranking measure, and a
# panel that does not is one where it did not.

# %%
final = (
    catalog.filter(pl.col("checkpoint_value") == pl.col("checkpoint_value").max().over("label"))
    .filter("full_coverage")
    .sort("label", "config_name")
)

fig_capacity = make_subplots(
    rows=len(panel_labels),
    cols=1,
    shared_xaxes=True,
    vertical_spacing=0.09,
    subplot_titles=[
        f"{label} ({'primary' if label == primary else 'variant'})" for label in panel_labels
    ],
)
for row, label in enumerate(panel_labels, start=1):
    panel = final.filter(pl.col("label") == label)
    fig_capacity.add_trace(
        go.Bar(
            x=panel.get_column("config_name").to_list(),
            y=panel.get_column("ic_mean").to_list(),
            marker_color=[color_of[name] for name in panel.get_column("config_name")],
        ),
        row=row,
        col=1,
    )
    fig_capacity.add_hline(
        y=0, line_width=1, line_dash="dash", line_color=COLORS["neutral"], row=row, col=1
    )
    fig_capacity.update_yaxes(title_text="Mean IC (validation)", row=row, col=1)
fig_capacity.update_xaxes(
    categoryorder="array",
    categoryarray=config_order,
    title_text="Configuration (in the order the training menu declares them)",
    row=len(panel_labels),
    col=1,
)
fig_capacity.update_layout(
    title="Validation IC at the final epoch, by capacity and label",
    height=300 * len(panel_labels),
    width=900,
    showlegend=False,
    margin=dict(t=90),
)
capacity_text = ". ".join(
    "The {} panel runs from {:+.3f} to {:+.3f} with {} of {} bars above zero".format(
        label,
        final.filter(pl.col("label") == label).get_column("ic_mean").min(),
        final.filter(pl.col("label") == label).get_column("ic_mean").max(),
        final.filter((pl.col("label") == label) & (pl.col("ic_mean") > 0)).height,
        final.filter(pl.col("label") == label).height,
    )
    for label in panel_labels
)
show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig_capacity,
    "Bar charts of mean validation information coefficient at the final training epoch, one bar "
    "per configuration in menu order and coloured as in the previous figure. One panel per "
    f"label, each with its own vertical scale and a dashed zero line. {capacity_text}.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ### How far the epoch count moves a configuration
#
# The two figures above measure two different things, and this frame puts them on one scale.
# `across_configs` is the IC range over the three configurations at the final epoch, which is what
# the capacity chart shows. `median_within_config` is the median range a single configuration
# covers over its own eight checkpoints, which is what the curves show. When the second is the
# larger, the stopping point moves the ranking measure further than the architecture does, and
# reporting each configuration's own best checkpoint would be reporting the maximum of eight draws
# as though it were one.

# %% tags=["results"]
spread = (
    curves.group_by("label", "config_name")
    .agg(
        ic_min=pl.col("ic_mean").min(),
        ic_max=pl.col("ic_mean").max(),
        ic_final=pl.col("ic_mean").sort_by("checkpoint_value").last(),
        peak_checkpoint=pl.col("checkpoint_value").sort_by("ic_mean", descending=True).first(),
    )
    .with_columns(checkpoint_range=pl.col("ic_max") - pl.col("ic_min"))
    .sort(["label", "config_name"])
)
epoch_against_capacity = (
    spread.group_by("label")
    .agg(
        configurations=pl.len(),
        across_configs=pl.col("ic_final").max() - pl.col("ic_final").min(),
        median_within_config=pl.col("checkpoint_range").median(),
    )
    .with_columns(checkpoint_dominates=pl.col("median_within_config") > pl.col("across_configs"))
    .sort("label")
)
epoch_against_capacity

# %% [markdown]
# One row per configuration behind that comparison: the lowest and highest IC it reached across its
# own checkpoints, where its highest fell, and where it finished. A peak at the first or last
# checkpoint is at the edge of the schedule, which is a different situation from a peak in the
# middle - it says the useful training length may lie outside the range that was searched.

# %% tags=["results"]
spread

# %% [markdown]
# ## 5. What to notice
#
# **An epoch checkpoint is part of the configuration, not a detail of how it was fitted.** Three
# declared configurations at eight checkpoints each are 24 candidate models per label, and the
# `epoch_against_capacity` frame is how you tell whether that distinction is doing work: compare
# the spread a single configuration covers over its own training run against the spread across the
# configurations at a fixed training length. Where the first is comparable to the second, a
# stopping point chosen after seeing the curves would be doing about as much of the ranking as the
# choice of architecture. That is why every checkpoint is registered as its own prediction set
# rather than each configuration reporting its own best one.
#
# **Read the ranking with the coverage column or it will mislead you.** A network that has settled
# into predicting nearly the same value for every fund contributes no rank correlation on those
# dates, and its IC is then an average over the dates where it stayed non-degenerate. `ic_n_days`
# is what makes that visible, and it is the same failure mode the most aggressive L1 settings
# produced in [`06_linear`](06_linear.ipynb) by a different mechanism. A metric averaged over a set
# the model itself selected is not a metric.
#
# **Capacity is not a dial you turn up.** The grid steps width and ensemble size together across a
# factor of four, on a cross-section of fewer than a hundred funds and a few hundred features. A
# larger network has more ways to describe the training window exactly, and on a panel this small
# there is not much more structure for it to find, so the useful thing to read from the capacity
# chart is whether the ranking measure moves at all rather than which end wins. On a wider panel -
# thousands of names rather than dozens - the same grid usually behaves differently, and that is
# the comparison to make on your own data before spending a sweep on the largest configuration.
#
# **The ensemble is what makes this cheap enough to sweep.** Averaging *k* independently trained
# networks costs *k* training runs. Sharing the backbone and giving each member only its own
# scaling vector and output layer costs close to one, and the parameter count grows with
# `n_members` far more slowly than a separate network per member would. That is a design choice
# worth recognising in other architectures: where an ensemble helps because it averages away
# initialization noise rather than because its members are genuinely different models, most of the
# benefit is still there once the bulk of the parameters are shared.
#
# **None of this selects anything.** IC measures whether predictions order the cross-section
# correctly, not whether a strategy trading them makes money after costs and turnover. Those are
# different questions and a configuration can win the first while losing the second. Selection is
# on validation backtest Sharpe over the population this notebook just published, and it happens in
# [`14_backtest`](14_backtest.ipynb), where the checkpoint is part of what is selected.
#
# **Known limitations.** The IC is an average of daily rank correlations with no adjustment for the
# serial dependence that overlapping 21-day returns create, so it is a ranking diagnostic rather
# than a test, and it carries no interval that would say whether these configurations differ from
# each other or from the linear and boosted ones. The grid moves width and ensemble size together
# at a fixed dropout, learning rate and batch size, so it cannot attribute a difference to either
# dial alone. The checkpoint schedule searches training lengths in steps of 25 epochs up to 200,
# and says nothing about what happens outside that range. And every number here is measured on the
# validation folds, which have been read many times over by the time a case study reaches this
# notebook.
#
# **Next**: [`09_dl_lstm`](09_dl_lstm.ipynb) stops treating each decision date as an independent
# row and feeds the network the recent history of each fund as a sequence, which is the one thing
# none of the three families so far can see.

```