आर्थिक परिकल्पनाओं और डेटा समय के आधार पर वित्तीय विशेषताएँ बनाना
सारांश
यह अध्याय ट्रेडिंग विचार को दस्तावेज़ीकृत विशेषता विनिर्देश में बदलने का ढाँचा प्रस्तुत करता है। यह शोधकर्ताओं से विशेषता की अवधि को इच्छित निर्णय के अनुरूप रखने, प्रेरक परिकल्पना बताने और पूर्वानुमान संकेतों को संदर्भगत स्थिति चरों से अलग पहचानने को कहता है। संदर्भ ढाँचे, निरूपण और एकत्रीकरण के विकल्प आर्थिक दावे के अनुरूप होने चाहिए; परिकल्पना बदलने वाले रूपांतरणों को उन रूपांतरणों से अलग समझना चाहिए जो मुख्यतः शोर नियंत्रित करते हैं। अध्याय कीमत और वॉल्यूम की विशेषताओं, माइक्रोस्ट्रक्चर, साधनों के बीच संबंधों, डेरिवेटिव से निकले मापों, फ़ंडामेंटल, मैक्रोइकॉनॉमिक डेटा और कैलेंडर चरों का सर्वेक्षण करता है।
यह तेज़ संकेतों को धीमी स्थिति चरों के साथ गेटिंग, स्केलिंग या सशर्त विकल्पों के ज़रिए जोड़ने पर ज़ोर देता है और जाँचता है कि परस्पर प्रभाव अतिरिक्त जानकारी देते हैं या नहीं। फ़ंडामेंटल और मैक्रो डेटा की समय-बिंदु पर उपलब्धता ज़रूरी है, क्योंकि रिपोर्ट में देरी और संशोधन झूठे प्रमाण बना सकते हैं। विशेषता खोज में नियंत्रित बदलाव, एक ही परिवार के भीतर डुप्लिकेट हटाना और मजबूती जाँच जैसी सावधानी भी चाहिए। अध्याय विधियों और विफलता के तरीकों की रूपरेखा देता है; यह कोई एक रणनीति या एक प्रदर्शन नतीजा प्रस्तुत नहीं करता। इसके विशेषता परिवारों के लिए भी उपयुक्त डेटा, समय संबंधी मान्यताएँ, वैलिडेशन और लागत को ध्यान में रखने वाला आकलन ज़रूरी है।
मुख्य विचार
- विशेषता डिज़ाइन की शुरुआत अवधि के संरेखण, प्रेरक परिकल्पना और विशेषता की स्पष्ट भूमिका से होनी चाहिए।
- संदर्भ ढाँचे, निरूपण और एकत्रीकरण के विकल्प विशेषता का आर्थिक अर्थ बदल सकते हैं।
- धीमी गति से बदलने वाले फ़ंडामेंटल और मैक्रो चरों को प्रकाशन में देरी तथा संशोधनों के अनुरूप समय-बिंदु पर संरेखित करना चाहिए।
- सिग्नल और स्थिति के परस्पर प्रभाव सशर्त जानकारी जोड़ सकते हैं, लेकिन जाँचे जा रहे विकल्पों की संख्या बढ़ाते हैं।
- डुप्लिकेट हटाना, नियंत्रित बदलाव, घटना अध्ययन और मजबूती जाँच विशेषता चयन को विश्वसनीय बनाए रखने में मदद करते हैं।
टैग
पूरा पाठ
# artifact_audit.py
```py
#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""Report registered fits whose named feature artifact is not on disk.
A training identity carries ``computation.feature_artifacts.<role>.sha256``, the hash of
the artifact the fit read. Nothing else checks the file is still there, so a fit whose
input is gone resolves, reads as healthy, and is a record of a result rather than a
reproducible one.
**The scope this walks is printed, and that is not decoration.** An earlier run of an
uncommitted version of this audit reported ``crypto_perps_funding/financial`` as missing
for 144 fits while the file sat at the canonical path under its registered hash, untouched
for two months (ml4t/agent-workspace#1176). A case study's ``features/`` is a symlink into
the artifacts root in every checkout that has one, so an audit run from a throwaway
worktree - or one that does not resolve the link - hashes a different tree than the fits
read and reports absence with full confidence. Every path below is resolved and printed,
and a resolved path outside the artifacts root is a hard error rather than a quiet
mis-scope.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import hashlib
import json
import sqlite3
import sys
from collections import Counter
from pathlib import Path
REPO_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
sys.path.insert(0, str(REPO_ROOT))
from utils.paths import get_case_study_dir # noqa: E402
CASE_STUDIES = (
"cme_futures",
"crypto_perps_funding",
"etfs",
"fx_pairs",
"nasdaq100_microstructure",
"sp500_equity_option_analytics",
"sp500_options",
"us_equities_panel",
"us_firm_characteristics",
)
ARTIFACT_DIRS = ("features", "labels")
def sha256_of(path: Path) -> str:
digest = hashlib.sha256()
with path.open("rb") as handle:
for block in iter(lambda: handle.read(1 << 20), b""):
digest.update(block)
return digest.hexdigest()
def registered_artifacts(spec_json: str) -> list[tuple[str, str, int | None]]:
"""``(role, sha256, size)`` for one spec, across both shapes the registry holds.
A dict keyed by role, and a list of ``{role, sha256}`` whose hashes may carry a
``sha256:`` prefix. Matching on the hash alone reaches both, but the role and size are
what make a report readable, so both shapes are parsed rather than regex-scraped.
"""
artifacts = json.loads(spec_json).get("computation", {}).get("feature_artifacts")
out: list[tuple[str, str, int | None]] = []
if isinstance(artifacts, dict):
for role, entry in artifacts.items():
if isinstance(entry, dict) and entry.get("sha256"):
out.append((role, str(entry["sha256"]).removeprefix("sha256:"), entry.get("size")))
elif isinstance(artifacts, list):
for entry in artifacts:
if isinstance(entry, dict) and entry.get("sha256"):
out.append(
(
str(entry.get("role", "?")),
str(entry["sha256"]).removeprefix("sha256:"),
entry.get("size"),
)
)
return out
def walk(
case_study: str, artifacts_root: Path | None
) -> tuple[dict[str, Path], list[str], list[str]]:
"""Hash every parquet the case study's artifact directories hold, after resolving them.
The third return is the directories that were not there. An absent one is not a small
gap in an otherwise good answer: every hash it would have contributed is absent from
``on_disk``, so every fit that read it is counted as naming a missing artifact. The
caller has to know, because the two readings are opposite and the output is identical.
"""
case_dir = get_case_study_dir(case_study)
on_disk: dict[str, Path] = {}
scope: list[str] = []
absent: list[str] = []
for name in ARTIFACT_DIRS:
declared = case_dir / name
if not declared.exists():
scope.append(f" {name}/ ABSENT at {declared}")
absent.append(f"{case_study}/{name} at {declared}")
continue
resolved = declared.resolve()
scope.append(f" {name}/ -> {resolved}")
if artifacts_root is not None and artifacts_root not in resolved.parents:
raise SystemExit(
f"{case_study}/{name} resolves to {resolved}, which is not under "
f"{artifacts_root}. Hashing it would compare the registry's fits against a "
f"tree they never read. Run from a checkout whose artifact directories link "
f"into the artifacts root, or pass --artifacts-root to name the tree you mean."
)
for parquet in sorted(resolved.rglob("*.parquet")):
on_disk.setdefault(sha256_of(parquet), parquet)
return on_disk, scope, absent
def default_artifacts_root(case_studies: tuple[str, ...]) -> Path | None:
"""The tree the artifact directories actually live in, taken from the first that exists.
Derived from a RESOLVED artifact directory, never from the case-study directory: in a
checkout those are two different trees, because ``case_studies/<cs>/features`` is a
symlink into the artifacts root and its unresolved parent is the repository.
"""
for case_study in case_studies:
case_dir = get_case_study_dir(case_study)
for name in ARTIFACT_DIRS:
declared = case_dir / name
if declared.exists():
# <root>/<case study>/<features|labels>
return declared.resolve().parents[1]
return None
def audit(
case_studies: tuple[str, ...], artifacts_root: Path | None
) -> tuple[int, list[str], list[str]]:
"""Returns the missing-fit count, the case studies skipped, and the directories unseen.
The second and third are not details. A partial audit that prints "0 fits name an
artifact that is not on disk" is indistinguishable from a clean one, and a checkout is
missing a registry whenever its gitignored ``run_log`` symlink was never created -
which is the normal state of most worktrees, not an exception.
The third exists because the second was not enough. An absent *artifact directory*
inside an audited case study used to print one ABSENT line in the middle of the scope
block and then contribute every one of that case study's fits to a confident total.
Measured 2026-09-14 on a checkout whose ``us_equities_panel`` had ``run_log`` but no
``features/``: the audit reported 393 fits naming missing artifacts and exited 1, with
no PARTIAL, while ``financial.parquet`` sat on disk at exactly the 4,478,156,899 bytes
the MISSING line quoted. A case study that could not be fully seen is now not counted
at all, because there is no way to tell its real findings from its blind ones.
"""
total_missing = 0
unaudited: list[str] = []
unseen: list[str] = []
for case_study in case_studies:
db = get_case_study_dir(case_study) / "run_log" / "registry.db"
print(f"\n{case_study}")
if not db.exists():
print(f" NOT AUDITED: no registry at {db}")
unaudited.append(case_study)
continue
on_disk, scope, absent = walk(case_study, artifacts_root)
for line in scope:
print(line)
if absent:
print(
f" NOT AUDITED: {len(absent)} artifact directory(ies) absent, so every "
f"fit here would read as missing. Nothing from this case study is counted."
)
unseen.extend(absent)
continue
print(f" {len(on_disk)} distinct parquet hashed")
connection = sqlite3.connect(f"file:{db}?mode=ro", uri=True)
try:
rows = connection.execute("SELECT training_hash, spec_json FROM training_runs")
missing: Counter[tuple[str, str, int | None]] = Counter()
fits = 0
for _, spec_json in rows:
fits += 1
for role, sha, size in registered_artifacts(spec_json):
if sha not in on_disk:
missing[(role, sha, size)] += 1
finally:
connection.close()
if not missing:
print(f" {fits} fits, every named artifact present")
continue
for (role, sha, size), count in sorted(missing.items(), key=lambda kv: -kv[1]):
size_text = f"{size:,} bytes" if size else "size not recorded"
print(f" MISSING {role:<14} {sha[:16]}… {size_text} named by {count} fits")
total_missing += count
return total_missing, unaudited, unseen
def main() -> int:
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
parser.add_argument("--case-study", action="append", choices=CASE_STUDIES)
parser.add_argument(
"--artifacts-root",
type=Path,
help=(
"Tree every artifact directory must resolve under. Defaults to the parent of the "
"first case study's resolved directory. Pass 'none' to disable the check, which "
"is how you audit a deliberately isolated tree."
),
)
args = parser.parse_args()
selected = tuple(args.case_study) if args.case_study else CASE_STUDIES
if args.artifacts_root is not None and str(args.artifacts_root) == "none":
artifacts_root = None
elif args.artifacts_root is not None:
artifacts_root = args.artifacts_root.resolve()
else:
artifacts_root = default_artifacts_root(selected)
if artifacts_root is None:
raise SystemExit(
"no case study has a features/ or labels/ directory, so there is no tree to "
"audit. Pass --artifacts-root to name one explicitly."
)
print(f"artifacts root: {artifacts_root if artifacts_root else 'UNCHECKED'}")
total, unaudited, unseen = audit(selected, artifacts_root)
if unaudited or unseen:
# Deliberately no total. A number printed here is read as the answer however it is
# qualified, and over an incomplete scope it is not one.
print("\nPARTIAL: this audit did not see the whole tree, so it reports no count.")
if unaudited:
print(
f" {len(unaudited)} of {len(selected)} case studies had no registry: "
f"{', '.join(unaudited)}"
)
if unseen:
print(f" {len(unseen)} artifact directory(ies) absent:")
for line in unseen:
print(f" {line}")
print(" Run from a checkout where every case study links into the artifacts root.")
return 2
print(f"\n{total} fits name an artifact that is not on disk")
return 1 if total else 0
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(main())
```स्रोत के लाइसेंस के तहत श्रेय सहित पूरा पाठ दिखाया गया है। लाइसेंस: MIT
यह सारांश मूल स्रोत के आधार पर Stratmill के शोध एजेंट ने लिखा है; यह स्रोत की प्रति नहीं है।