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PatchTST: टाइम-सीरीज़ पूर्वानुमान के लिए पैच-आधारित Transformer

कोड Machine Learning for Trading

सारांश

यह दस्तावेज़ बहुचर टाइम-सीरीज़ का पूर्वानुमान करने के लिए PatchTST न्यूरल-नेटवर्क आधार प्रस्तुत करता है। यह हर इनपुट श्रृंखला को ओवरलैप होते पैच में बाँटता है, हर पैच को सीखे गए फ़ीचर स्पेस में प्रोजेक्ट करता है, स्थितीय एन्कोडिंग जोड़ता है और बनी श्रृंखला को Transformer एनकोडर की परतों से प्रोसेस करता है। एनकोडर अटेंशन स्टैक में हर इनपुट चर को स्वतंत्र रूप से संभालता है; फिर पूर्वानुमान हेड एनकोड किए गए पैच को लक्ष्य क्षितिज में मैप करता है।

आर्किटेक्चर में रिवर्सिबल इंस्टेंस नॉर्मलाइज़ेशन, वैकल्पिक अंतिम पैडिंग, ड्रॉपआउट, रेज़िडुअल अटेंशन और साझा पूर्वानुमान हेड या हर चर के लिए अलग हेड का समर्थन भी है। इन डिज़ाइन विकल्पों से सामान्यीकरण, पैच कवरेज, मॉडल क्षमता और चरों के पार पैरामीटर साझा करने को नियंत्रित किया जा सकता है। दी गई सामग्री कार्यान्वयन कोड है, ट्रेडिंग प्रयोग नहीं: इसमें एसेट यूनिवर्स, मूल्यांकन विधि या पूर्वानुमान परिणाम नहीं बताए गए।

मात्रात्मक उपयोग में यह आधार मॉडलिंग घटक है, पूर्वानुमान बढ़त का साक्ष्य नहीं। इसका प्रदर्शन डेटा तैयारी, पैच लंबाई और स्ट्राइड, मॉडल कॉन्फ़िगरेशन, प्रशिक्षण प्रक्रिया तथा आउट-ऑफ़-सैंपल सत्यापन पर निर्भर करेगा। दिए गए अंश में लेन-देन लागत या पोर्टफ़ोलियो निर्माण के बारे में मार्गदर्शन नहीं है।

मुख्य विचार

  • PatchTST टाइम-सीरीज़ को पैच में बदलता है और Transformer अटेंशन लगाने से पहले हर पैच का एम्बेडिंग बनाता है।
  • एनकोडर चरों को स्वतंत्र रूप से प्रोसेस करता है; पूर्वानुमान हेड पैरामीटर साझा कर सकता है या हर चर के लिए अलग हेड रख सकता है।
  • रिवर्सिबल इंस्टेंस नॉर्मलाइज़ेशन एनकोडिंग से पहले इनपुट सामान्यीकृत कर सकता है और बाद में पूर्वानुमान का पैमाना बहाल कर सकता है।
  • पैच लंबाई, स्ट्राइड, पैडिंग और मॉडल आयाम श्रृंखला निरूपण तथा पूर्वानुमान आर्किटेक्चर तय करते हैं।
  • केवल यह कार्यान्वयन ट्रेडिंग में पूर्वानुमान की सटीकता या लाभप्रदता का कोई साक्ष्य नहीं देता।

टैग

पूरा पाठ
# backbone.py


```py
"""PatchTST backbone — verbatim from yuqinie98/PatchTST (MIT License).

Only modification: import paths rewritten to this package.
"""

__all__ = ["PatchTST_backbone"]

# Cell
from collections.abc import Callable
from typing import Optional

import numpy as np
import torch
import torch.nn.functional as F
from torch import Tensor, nn

# from collections import OrderedDict
from case_studies.config.patchtst._reference.layers import (
    Transpose,
    get_activation_fn,
    positional_encoding,
)
from case_studies.config.patchtst._reference.revin import RevIN


# Cell
class PatchTST_backbone(nn.Module):
    def __init__(
        self,
        c_in: int,
        context_window: int,
        target_window: int,
        patch_len: int,
        stride: int,
        max_seq_len: int | None = 1024,
        n_layers: int = 3,
        d_model=128,
        n_heads=16,
        d_k: int | None = None,
        d_v: int | None = None,
        d_ff: int = 256,
        norm: str = "BatchNorm",
        attn_dropout: float = 0.0,
        dropout: float = 0.0,
        act: str = "gelu",
        key_padding_mask: bool = "auto",
        padding_var: int | None = None,
        attn_mask: Tensor | None = None,
        res_attention: bool = True,
        pre_norm: bool = False,
        store_attn: bool = False,
        pe: str = "zeros",
        learn_pe: bool = True,
        fc_dropout: float = 0.0,
        head_dropout=0,
        padding_patch=None,
        pretrain_head: bool = False,
        head_type="flatten",
        individual=False,
        revin=True,
        affine=True,
        subtract_last=False,
        verbose: bool = False,
        **kwargs,
    ):

        super().__init__()

        # RevIn
        self.revin = revin
        if self.revin:
            self.revin_layer = RevIN(c_in, affine=affine, subtract_last=subtract_last)

        # Patching
        self.patch_len = patch_len
        self.stride = stride
        self.padding_patch = padding_patch
        patch_num = int((context_window - patch_len) / stride + 1)
        if padding_patch == "end":  # can be modified to general case
            self.padding_patch_layer = nn.ReplicationPad1d((0, stride))
            patch_num += 1

        # Backbone
        self.backbone = TSTiEncoder(
            c_in,
            patch_num=patch_num,
            patch_len=patch_len,
            max_seq_len=max_seq_len,
            n_layers=n_layers,
            d_model=d_model,
            n_heads=n_heads,
            d_k=d_k,
            d_v=d_v,
            d_ff=d_ff,
            attn_dropout=attn_dropout,
            dropout=dropout,
            act=act,
            key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask,
            padding_var=padding_var,
            attn_mask=attn_mask,
            res_attention=res_attention,
            pre_norm=pre_norm,
            store_attn=store_attn,
            pe=pe,
            learn_pe=learn_pe,
            verbose=verbose,
            **kwargs,
        )

        # Head
        self.head_nf = d_model * patch_num
        self.n_vars = c_in
        self.pretrain_head = pretrain_head
        self.head_type = head_type
        self.individual = individual

        if self.pretrain_head:
            self.head = self.create_pretrain_head(
                self.head_nf, c_in, fc_dropout
            )  # custom head passed as a partial func with all its kwargs
        elif head_type == "flatten":
            self.head = Flatten_Head(
                self.individual, self.n_vars, self.head_nf, target_window, head_dropout=head_dropout
            )

    def forward(self, z):  # z: [bs x nvars x seq_len]
        # norm
        if self.revin:
            z = z.permute(0, 2, 1)
            z = self.revin_layer(z, "norm")
            z = z.permute(0, 2, 1)

        # do patching
        if self.padding_patch == "end":
            z = self.padding_patch_layer(z)
        z = z.unfold(
            dimension=-1, size=self.patch_len, step=self.stride
        )  # z: [bs x nvars x patch_num x patch_len]
        z = z.permute(0, 1, 3, 2)  # z: [bs x nvars x patch_len x patch_num]

        # model
        z = self.backbone(z)  # z: [bs x nvars x d_model x patch_num]
        z = self.head(z)  # z: [bs x nvars x target_window]

        # denorm
        if self.revin:
            z = z.permute(0, 2, 1)
            z = self.revin_layer(z, "denorm")
            z = z.permute(0, 2, 1)
        return z

    def create_pretrain_head(self, head_nf, vars, dropout):
        return nn.Sequential(nn.Dropout(dropout), nn.Conv1d(head_nf, vars, 1))


class Flatten_Head(nn.Module):
    def __init__(self, individual, n_vars, nf, target_window, head_dropout=0):
        super().__init__()

        self.individual = individual
        self.n_vars = n_vars

        if self.individual:
            self.linears = nn.ModuleList()
            self.dropouts = nn.ModuleList()
            self.flattens = nn.ModuleList()
            for i in range(self.n_vars):
                self.flattens.append(nn.Flatten(start_dim=-2))
                self.linears.append(nn.Linear(nf, target_window))
                self.dropouts.append(nn.Dropout(head_dropout))
        else:
            self.flatten = nn.Flatten(start_dim=-2)
            self.linear = nn.Linear(nf, target_window)
            self.dropout = nn.Dropout(head_dropout)

    def forward(self, x):  # x: [bs x nvars x d_model x patch_num]
        if self.individual:
            x_out = []
            for i in range(self.n_vars):
                z = self.flattens[i](x[:, i, :, :])  # z: [bs x d_model * patch_num]
                z = self.linears[i](z)  # z: [bs x target_window]
                z = self.dropouts[i](z)
                x_out.append(z)
            x = torch.stack(x_out, dim=1)  # x: [bs x nvars x target_window]
        else:
            x = self.flatten(x)
            x = self.linear(x)
            x = self.dropout(x)
        return x


class TSTiEncoder(nn.Module):  # i means channel-independent
    def __init__(
        self,
        c_in,
        patch_num,
        patch_len,
        max_seq_len=1024,
        n_layers=3,
        d_model=128,
        n_heads=16,
        d_k=None,
        d_v=None,
        d_ff=256,
        norm="BatchNorm",
        attn_dropout=0.0,
        dropout=0.0,
        act="gelu",
        store_attn=False,
        key_padding_mask="auto",
        padding_var=None,
        attn_mask=None,
        res_attention=True,
        pre_norm=False,
        pe="zeros",
        learn_pe=True,
        verbose=False,
        **kwargs,
    ):

        super().__init__()

        self.patch_num = patch_num
        self.patch_len = patch_len

        # Input encoding
        q_len = patch_num
        self.W_P = nn.Linear(
            patch_len, d_model
        )  # Eq 1: projection of feature vectors onto a d-dim vector space
        self.seq_len = q_len

        # Positional encoding
        self.W_pos = positional_encoding(pe, learn_pe, q_len, d_model)

        # Residual dropout
        self.dropout = nn.Dropout(dropout)

        # Encoder
        self.encoder = TSTEncoder(
            q_len,
            d_model,
            n_heads,
            d_k=d_k,
            d_v=d_v,
            d_ff=d_ff,
            norm=norm,
            attn_dropout=attn_dropout,
            dropout=dropout,
            pre_norm=pre_norm,
            activation=act,
            res_attention=res_attention,
            n_layers=n_layers,
            store_attn=store_attn,
        )

    def forward(self, x) -> Tensor:  # x: [bs x nvars x patch_len x patch_num]

        n_vars = x.shape[1]
        # Input encoding
        x = x.permute(0, 1, 3, 2)  # x: [bs x nvars x patch_num x patch_len]
        x = self.W_P(x)  # x: [bs x nvars x patch_num x d_model]

        u = torch.reshape(
            x, (x.shape[0] * x.shape[1], x.shape[2], x.shape[3])
        )  # u: [bs * nvars x patch_num x d_model]
        u = self.dropout(u + self.W_pos)  # u: [bs * nvars x patch_num x d_model]

        # Encoder
        z = self.encoder(u)  # z: [bs * nvars x patch_num x d_model]
        z = torch.reshape(
            z, (-1, n_vars, z.shape[-2], z.shape[-1])
        )  # z: [bs x nvars x patch_num x d_model]
        z = z.permute(0, 1, 3, 2)  # z: [bs x nvars x d_model x patch_num]

        return z


# Cell
class TSTEncoder(nn.Module):
    def __init__(
        self,
        q_len,
        d_model,
        n_heads,
        d_k=None,
        d_v=None,
        d_ff=None,
        norm="BatchNorm",
        attn_dropout=0.0,
        dropout=0.0,
        activation="gelu",
        res_attention=False,
        n_layers=1,
        pre_norm=False,
        store_attn=False,
    ):
        super().__init__()

        self.layers = nn.ModuleList(
            [
                TSTEncoderLayer(
                    q_len,
                    d_model,
                    n_heads=n_heads,
                    d_k=d_k,
                    d_v=d_v,
                    d_ff=d_ff,
                    norm=norm,
                    attn_dropout=attn_dropout,
                    dropout=dropout,
                    activation=activation,
                    res_attention=res_attention,
                    pre_norm=pre_norm,
                    store_attn=store_attn,
                )
                for i in range(n_layers)
            ]
        )
        self.res_attention = res_attention

    def forward(
        self,
        src: Tensor,
        key_padding_mask: Tensor | None = None,
        attn_mask: Tensor | None = None,
    ):
        output = src
        scores = None
        if self.res_attention:
            for mod in self.layers:
                output, scores = mod(
                    output, prev=scores, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask
                )
            return output
        else:
            for mod in self.layers:
                output = mod(output, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask)
            return output


class TSTEncoderLayer(nn.Module):
    def __init__(
        self,
        q_len,
        d_model,
        n_heads,
        d_k=None,
        d_v=None,
        d_ff=256,
        store_attn=False,
        norm="BatchNorm",
        attn_dropout=0,
        dropout=0.0,
        bias=True,
        activation="gelu",
        res_attention=False,
        pre_norm=False,
    ):
        super().__init__()
        assert not d_model % n_heads, (
            f"d_model ({d_model}) must be divisible by n_heads ({n_heads})"
        )
        d_k = d_model // n_heads if d_k is None else d_k
        d_v = d_model // n_heads if d_v is None else d_v

        # Multi-Head attention
        self.res_attention = res_attention
        self.self_attn = _MultiheadAttention(
            d_model,
            n_heads,
            d_k,
            d_v,
            attn_dropout=attn_dropout,
            proj_dropout=dropout,
            res_attention=res_attention,
        )

        # Add & Norm
        self.dropout_attn = nn.Dropout(dropout)
        if "batch" in norm.lower():
            self.norm_attn = nn.Sequential(
                Transpose(1, 2), nn.BatchNorm1d(d_model), Transpose(1, 2)
            )
        else:
            self.norm_attn = nn.LayerNorm(d_model)

        # Position-wise Feed-Forward
        self.ff = nn.Sequential(
            nn.Linear(d_model, d_ff, bias=bias),
            get_activation_fn(activation),
            nn.Dropout(dropout),
            nn.Linear(d_ff, d_model, bias=bias),
        )

        # Add & Norm
        self.dropout_ffn = nn.Dropout(dropout)
        if "batch" in norm.lower():
            self.norm_ffn = nn.Sequential(Transpose(1, 2), nn.BatchNorm1d(d_model), Transpose(1, 2))
        else:
            self.norm_ffn = nn.LayerNorm(d_model)

        self.pre_norm = pre_norm
        self.store_attn = store_attn

    def forward(
        self,
        src: Tensor,
        prev: Tensor | None = None,
        key_padding_mask: Tensor | None = None,
        attn_mask: Tensor | None = None,
    ) -> Tensor:

        # Multi-Head attention sublayer
        if self.pre_norm:
            src = self.norm_attn(src)
        ## Multi-Head attention
        if self.res_attention:
            src2, attn, scores = self.self_attn(
                src, src, src, prev, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask
            )
        else:
            src2, attn = self.self_attn(
                src, src, src, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask
            )
        if self.store_attn:
            self.attn = attn
        ## Add & Norm
        src = src + self.dropout_attn(src2)  # Add: residual connection with residual dropout
        if not self.pre_norm:
            src = self.norm_attn(src)

        # Feed-forward sublayer
        if self.pre_norm:
            src = self.norm_ffn(src)
        ## Position-wise Feed-Forward
        src2 = self.ff(src)
        ## Add & Norm
        src = src + self.dropout_ffn(src2)  # Add: residual connection with residual dropout
        if not self.pre_norm:
            src = self.norm_ffn(src)

        if self.res_attention:
            return src, scores
        else:
            return src


class _MultiheadAttention(nn.Module):
    def __init__(
        self,
        d_model,
        n_heads,
        d_k=None,
        d_v=None,
        res_attention=False,
        attn_dropout=0.0,
        proj_dropout=0.0,
        qkv_bias=True,
        lsa=False,
    ):
        """Multi Head Attention Layer
        Input shape:
            Q:       [batch_size (bs) x max_q_len x d_model]
            K, V:    [batch_size (bs) x q_len x d_model]
            mask:    [q_len x q_len]
        """
        super().__init__()
        d_k = d_model // n_heads if d_k is None else d_k
        d_v = d_model // n_heads if d_v is None else d_v

        self.n_heads, self.d_k, self.d_v = n_heads, d_k, d_v

        self.W_Q = nn.Linear(d_model, d_k * n_heads, bias=qkv_bias)
        self.W_K = nn.Linear(d_model, d_k * n_heads, bias=qkv_bias)
        self.W_V = nn.Linear(d_model, d_v * n_heads, bias=qkv_bias)

        # Scaled Dot-Product Attention (multiple heads)
        self.res_attention = res_attention
        self.sdp_attn = _ScaledDotProductAttention(
            d_model, n_heads, attn_dropout=attn_dropout, res_attention=self.res_attention, lsa=lsa
        )

        # Poject output
        self.to_out = nn.Sequential(nn.Linear(n_heads * d_v, d_model), nn.Dropout(proj_dropout))

    def forward(
        self,
        Q: Tensor,
        K: Tensor | None = None,
        V: Tensor | None = None,
        prev: Tensor | None = None,
        key_padding_mask: Tensor | None = None,
        attn_mask: Tensor | None = None,
    ):

        bs = Q.size(0)
        if K is None:
            K = Q
        if V is None:
            V = Q

        # Linear (+ split in multiple heads)
        q_s = (
            self.W_Q(Q).view(bs, -1, self.n_heads, self.d_k).transpose(1, 2)
        )  # q_s    : [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x d_k]
        k_s = (
            self.W_K(K).view(bs, -1, self.n_heads, self.d_k).permute(0, 2, 3, 1)
        )  # k_s    : [bs x n_heads x d_k x q_len] - transpose(1,2) + transpose(2,3)
        v_s = (
            self.W_V(V).view(bs, -1, self.n_heads, self.d_v).transpose(1, 2)
        )  # v_s    : [bs x n_heads x q_len x d_v]

        # Apply Scaled Dot-Product Attention (multiple heads)
        if self.res_attention:
            output, attn_weights, attn_scores = self.sdp_attn(
                q_s, k_s, v_s, prev=prev, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask
            )
        else:
            output, attn_weights = self.sdp_attn(
                q_s, k_s, v_s, key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask, attn_mask=attn_mask
            )
        # output: [bs x n_heads x q_len x d_v], attn: [bs x n_heads x q_len x q_len], scores: [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x q_len]

        # back to the original inputs dimensions
        output = (
            output.transpose(1, 2).contiguous().view(bs, -1, self.n_heads * self.d_v)
        )  # output: [bs x q_len x n_heads * d_v]
        output = self.to_out(output)

        if self.res_attention:
            return output, attn_weights, attn_scores
        else:
            return output, attn_weights


class _ScaledDotProductAttention(nn.Module):
    r"""Scaled Dot-Product Attention module (Attention is all you need by Vaswani et al., 2017) with optional residual attention from previous layer
    (Realformer: Transformer likes residual attention by He et al, 2020) and locality self sttention (Vision Transformer for Small-Size Datasets
    by Lee et al, 2021)"""

    def __init__(self, d_model, n_heads, attn_dropout=0.0, res_attention=False, lsa=False):
        super().__init__()
        self.attn_dropout = nn.Dropout(attn_dropout)
        self.res_attention = res_attention
        head_dim = d_model // n_heads
        self.scale = nn.Parameter(torch.tensor(head_dim**-0.5), requires_grad=lsa)
        self.lsa = lsa

    def forward(
        self,
        q: Tensor,
        k: Tensor,
        v: Tensor,
        prev: Tensor | None = None,
        key_padding_mask: Tensor | None = None,
        attn_mask: Tensor | None = None,
    ):
        """
        Input shape:
            q               : [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x d_k]
            k               : [bs x n_heads x d_k x seq_len]
            v               : [bs x n_heads x seq_len x d_v]
            prev            : [bs x n_heads x q_len x seq_len]
            key_padding_mask: [bs x seq_len]
            attn_mask       : [1 x seq_len x seq_len]
        Output shape:
            output:  [bs x n_heads x q_len x d_v]
            attn   : [bs x n_heads x q_len x seq_len]
            scores : [bs x n_heads x q_len x seq_len]
        """

        # Scaled MatMul (q, k) - similarity scores for all pairs of positions in an input sequence
        attn_scores = (
            torch.matmul(q, k) * self.scale
        )  # attn_scores : [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x q_len]

        # Add pre-softmax attention scores from the previous layer (optional)
        if prev is not None:
            attn_scores = attn_scores + prev

        # Attention mask (optional)
        if (
            attn_mask is not None
        ):  # attn_mask with shape [q_len x seq_len] - only used when q_len == seq_len
            if attn_mask.dtype == torch.bool:
                attn_scores.masked_fill_(attn_mask, -np.inf)
            else:
                attn_scores += attn_mask

        # Key padding mask (optional)
        if (
            key_padding_mask is not None
        ):  # mask with shape [bs x q_len] (only when max_w_len == q_len)
            attn_scores.masked_fill_(key_padding_mask.unsqueeze(1).unsqueeze(2), -np.inf)

        # normalize the attention weights
        attn_weights = F.softmax(
            attn_scores, dim=-1
        )  # attn_weights   : [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x q_len]
        attn_weights = self.attn_dropout(attn_weights)

        # compute the new values given the attention weights
        output = torch.matmul(attn_weights, v)  # output: [bs x n_heads x max_q_len x d_v]

        if self.res_attention:
            return output, attn_weights, attn_scores
        else:
            return output, attn_weights

```

स्रोत के लाइसेंस के तहत श्रेय सहित पूरा पाठ दिखाया गया है। लाइसेंस: MIT

यह सारांश मूल स्रोत के आधार पर Stratmill के शोध एजेंट ने लिखा है; यह स्रोत की प्रति नहीं है।