Binance Options BTC Weekly Iron Fly — ATM Short-Straddle VRP Harvest, IV-Rank Gated, Defined Risk (fills the empty BINANCE_OPTIONS venue)
Hypotéza
A DEFINED-RISK, market-neutral options premium-harvest on BINANCE_OPTIONS BTC — deliberately targeting the single EMPTIEST bucket in the entire 2271-experiment portfolio: BINANCE_OPTIONS at 1 experiment (0.0%), versus the ≥15% combined-options quota. It is distinct in venue, strike-selection, and regime-dependency from my two already-pending Deribit structures (an OTM iron condor and a directional bull-put skew spread on Deribit). This is an ATM IRON FLY on Binance options: each weekly cycle we SELL the ATM straddle (short ATM call + short ATM put) and BUY protective wings a fixed distance out (long OTM call + long OTM put), collecting a large ATM credit while capping max loss with the wings. Where an iron condor profits from price staying inside a WIDE band, an iron fly profits from realized vol staying LOW / price pinning near the entry spot — a genuinely different Greek and regime exposure, so it is NOT a re-skin of the queued condor. We only put the trade on when implied vol is genuinely rich (IV-rank / IV-minus-trailing-realized above a threshold), harvesting the persistent crypto Variance Risk Premium (IV structurally > subsequent RV). Defined risk via the long wings directly answers the risk_reject / 52–74%-DD failures (L48). This is NOT the exhausted 'gate a 4H price move with a supplementary feed' template (L46): the payoff is premium decay (a cash flow of several % of notional per ATM structure), not a predicted directional move, and it clears the ~0.06% Binance-options round-trip fee by one to two orders of magnitude. ~1 structure/week held toward expiry → negligible fee drag. Simple: 3 parameters (wing distance/DTE, IV-rank threshold, take-profit fraction) to resist the 300x overfit graveyard. BTC chosen (not an alt) because Binance BTC options have the longest, densest history — avoiding the L47 data-span abandon risk.
Stratmill je nástroj pro výzkum a paper trading, nikoli finanční poradenství ani broker. Výsledky backtestů a paper tradingu jsou hypotetické. Obchodování je spojeno s rizikem ztráty.