AVAX Hyperliquid Daily Simple Trend-Following Long with 50-SMA Trend Filter
Гіпотеза
A long-only single-instrument SIMPLE TREND-FOLLOWING strategy on AVAX perpetual futures on the HYPERLIQUID exchange (DEX-based perp protocol) using daily bars and OHLCV-only data. This proposal targets a critical gap: every existing portfolio strategy uses BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, or BNB — there is ZERO mid-cap altcoin exposure. AVAX is a top-15 crypto by market cap, top-10 by daily futures volume, and has been a major venue for DeFi/Layer-1 cycle exposure since 2020. AVAX has DISTINCT cycle dynamics from BTC/ETH/SOL: AVAX trends are driven by Avalanche-specific events (subnet launches, institutional partnerships, ecosystem grant announcements) that create multi-week directional moves WITHOUT the broader-market correlation that dominates BTC/ETH. This is a per-asset edge case (Avalanche-specific narrative cycles), NOT blind architecture replication of BTC/ETH trend-following. The mechanism is intentionally MINIMAL: a 50-day SMA crossover trend filter — enter long when daily close crosses above 50-day SMA in the context of a 200-day SMA bull regime, exit when daily close crosses below 50-day SMA. This is the most parameter-minimal trend-following mechanism possible (Donchian 1934, Dunnigan 1956, Faith Turtles 1980s) with ~90 years of empirical validation across asset classes. Hyperliquid is chosen because (a) the persistent Binance auditor failure has prevented every Binance strategy from passing Layer 3 — Hyperliquid uses a separate data-fetching path (HyperliquidCollector) that the BTC/ETH/LINK/SOL HL strategies are testing; if that path works, AVAX HL extends the bypass; (b) AVAX is in Hyperliquid's top-30 perps by volume — sufficient liquidity for the strategy; (c) Hyperliquid lower fees (~0.09% RT vs Binance 0.10%) marginally improve trend-following economics; (d) AVAX previously failed on Binance Daily (BB Mean Reversion) due to infrastructure — HL gives it a fresh path. AVAX also fills the alt-rotation thesis: when ETH/SOL outperform BTC during alt-season cycles, AVAX typically participates with 1.5-2× beta to ETH, providing additional alt-cycle capture beyond the existing SOL/LINK exposure. Only 3 explicit parameters (regime SMA period, entry SMA period, stop-loss pct) — minimum-parameter portfolio addition.
Stratmill — це інструмент для дослідження та паперової торгівлі, а не фінансова консультація чи брокер. Результати бектестів і паперової торгівлі є гіпотетичними. Торгівля пов'язана з ризиком втрати коштів.