주식·옵션 수익률 예측을 위한 패치 트랜스포머

# 10_dl_patchtst.py


```py
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# %% [markdown]
# # S&P 500 Equity+Options: Patched Attention
#
# [`09_dl_lstm`](09_dl_lstm.ipynb) fitted the two sequence architectures that read a window one
# observation at a time: a linear map with no memory, and gated memory carried along the window.
# This notebook fits the third the menu declares, which reads the same window a different way.
#
# **A patched transformer cuts the window into contiguous blocks and treats each block as one
# token.** Sixty observations become a handful of patches, and attention runs over those patches
# rather than over the sixty steps. Two things follow. Attention compares every patch with every
# other directly, so a relationship between the start of the window and its end does not have to
# survive being carried step by step the way it does in a recurrent model. And the sequence the
# attention layers see is short, which is what makes attention affordable on a window of this length
# at all.
#
# **The patch size is the modelling choice, and it is a coarseness decision.** Observations inside
# one patch are summarized together before attention ever sees them, so structure finer than a patch
# has to survive that summary. A larger patch buys a shorter sequence and loses resolution; a
# smaller one keeps resolution and gives attention more to compare.
#
# **This architecture is declared on one label, and that limits what the notebook can say.** The
# menu declares `patchtst` for the primary label alone, so unlike its siblings this population has
# no companion rows on the other two targets, and nothing here separates what the architecture does
# from what this particular target rewards. Section 1 reports what the menu declares rather than
# assuming it.
#
# **Learning objectives.** By the end of this notebook you will be able to:
#
# - Say what patching does to a window before attention sees it, and what a larger patch trades
#   away.
# - Explain why attention over patches is affordable where attention over raw steps would not be.
# - Read a curve of out-of-sample ranking accuracy against training epoch and tell a model still
#   learning apart from one fitting its training window.
# - Say what a single-label population cannot establish, and where the comparison that needs more
#   than one label is made instead.
#
# **Book reference**: Chapter 13, Section 13.6 (attention and transformer architectures for time
# series), and Chapter 6, Section 6.7 (Search accounting and run logging) for the run log this
# notebook writes into.
#
# **Prerequisites**: [`05_evaluation`](05_evaluation.ipynb) established the walk-forward folds, and
# [`09_dl_lstm`](09_dl_lstm.ipynb) fitted the rest of the declared `deep_learning` family, whose
# lookback and epoch schedule this configuration shares.
#
# **What it writes**: one training run and one complete validation prediction set per epoch
# checkpoint, in `run_log/registry.db` and under `run_log/training/` and `run_log/predictions/`,
# grouped under a named population. Together with `09_dl_lstm`'s population it covers the declared
# family. **Selection happens in [`14_backtest`](14_backtest.ipynb), not here.**

# %%
"""Fit the declared option-analytics patched-transformer population on the walk-forward folds."""

import plotly.graph_objects as go
import polars as pl

from case_studies.research import (
    declared_labels,
    load_model_configs,
    model_requests,
    open_study,
    population_supersedes,
    primary_label,
    resolved_model_plan,
    run_model_population,
)
from utils.style import COLORS, show_plotly_with_alt

# %% tags=["parameters"]
LABELS: list[str] = []
EXECUTION_TIER = "canonical"
WORKSPACE: str = ""
PREVIEW_REDUCTIONS: dict = {}
POPULATION_NAME = ""
SUPERSEDES_POPULATION: str = "af58ce93d6d2"
DEVICE: str = ""

# %%
study = open_study(
    "sp500_equity_option_analytics",
    execution_tier=EXECUTION_TIER,
    workspace=WORKSPACE or None,
    entry_point="10_dl_patchtst",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ## 1. Which labels, and which model
#
# `declared_labels` reports every label whose training menu declares `deep_learning`. The
# configuration frame below is the subset of that menu naming `patchtst`, and the gap between the
# two is the fact this notebook has to live with: the other architectures in the family are declared
# on all three regression labels and this one is not.
#
# `patch_size` is how many consecutive observations become one token, `d_model` the width of the
# representation each token is embedded into, `n_heads` how many attention comparisons run in
# parallel, and `n_layers` how many times the sequence is passed through the block. `lookback`
# matches the rest of the family, so the input window is the same one `09_dl_lstm` read and a
# difference between the populations is a difference between architectures rather than samples.
#
# `n_epochs` and `checkpoint_interval` come from the preset rather than from here, because they
# decide how many prediction sets the configuration owes: 100 epochs saved every 5 is 20, and a run
# that quietly trained for fewer would publish a different population under the same name.

# %%
declared_labels(study, "deep_learning")

# %%
configs = load_model_configs(
    study,
    "deep_learning",
    labels=LABELS or None,
    config_names=["patchtst"],
)
declared = load_model_configs(study, "deep_learning", config_names=["patchtst"])
if not configs.height:
    raise RuntimeError("no declared label names patchtst under deep_learning")
configs

# %% [markdown]
# `LABELS` narrows the run below what the menu declares, and a narrowed run declares a different set
# of members than the published population does. A population is immutable once written, so such a
# run must publish under its own name rather than registering an incomplete snapshot under the
# published one.
#
# The device is checked in the same cell. A network trained on a GPU and the same network trained on
# a CPU accumulate their sums in different orders and reach different weights, so the device is part
# of what the fitted model is and is recorded inside the computation's identity rather than beside
# it. The runner refuses to substitute a CPU for a requested GPU rather than publishing a different
# model under the published name, so on a machine with no NVIDIA card this notebook stops at the
# next cell; set `DEVICE="cpu"` and pass a `POPULATION_NAME` to fit the same configuration there.

# %%
PUBLISHED_DEVICE = "cuda"
device = DEVICE or PUBLISHED_DEVICE
print(f"training device: {device}")

narrows = set(zip(configs["label"], configs["config_name"], strict=True)) != set(
    zip(declared["label"], declared["config_name"], strict=True)
)
if (narrows or device != PUBLISHED_DEVICE) and not POPULATION_NAME:
    raise ValueError(
        f"this run declares {configs.height} label-configuration pairs on device {device!r}, "
        f"which is not the declared patchtst catalog on {PUBLISHED_DEVICE!r}, so it cannot "
        f"publish the patched-attention population; pass POPULATION_NAME to give it its own"
    )

# %% [markdown]
# ## 2. Binding the declaration to the data
#
# A menu entry says which network to fit. It does not say which feature columns exist today, where
# the walk-forward folds fall, or which symbol-date pairs have both a feature row and a label - nor,
# for a sequence model, which of those pairs have a full lookback behind them. **Resolving** a
# request goes and finds all of that, and fits nothing, so the plan can be inspected before any
# training starts.
#
# - **`eligible_rows` is below what a tabular family reports on the same label.** A prediction needs
#   a full, gap-free window of prior observations behind it, so what drops out is a stock too new to
#   have accumulated one, or a stretch where the calendar has a hole inside the window. It should
#   match what `09_dl_lstm` reported for this label, because the two share a lookback - a difference
#   would mean the two populations are measured on different samples and their results are not
#   directly comparable.
# - **`folds` equals the number of walk-forward splits** `05_evaluation` established.
# - **`validation_start` and `validation_end` bracket the development sample.** The held-out tail
#   must not appear here: it is scored once, at the end of the case study.
# - **`checkpoints` is the epoch schedule**, and multiplying it by the number of rows gives the
#   number of candidate models this notebook is about to create.
#
# The `training_hash` on each row is the identity of that computation, derived from everything that
# can change its result - the device, the lookback and the patch size included.
# [`RUN_LOG.md`](../RUN_LOG.md#identity) sets out what goes into one.

# %%
requests = model_requests(
    study,
    configs,
    execution_tier=EXECUTION_TIER,
    overrides={"device": device},
    preview_reductions=PREVIEW_REDUCTIONS,
)
resolved = tuple(request.resolve() for request in requests)

plan = resolved_model_plan(resolved)
plan.select(
    "label",
    "config_name",
    "feature_count",
    "eligible_entities",
    "eligible_rows",
    "folds",
    "checkpoints",
    "validation_start",
    "validation_end",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ## 3. Fitting the population
#
# `run_model_population` walks the folds. On each one it cuts the training rows into overlapping
# windows belonging to one stock and ending before the timestamp they predict, replaces missing
# feature values with zero and standardizes each column - the mean and scale measured on the
# training rows and applied unchanged to validation - then trains for the declared epochs, writing
# weights every fifth, and predicts that fold's validation rows from each saved set.
#
# **A window never crosses a stock, and it reads only what was observable.** The observations behind
# a prediction are always that stock's own. They are not confined to the training window: each
# stock's validation history is primed with the rows immediately preceding it, and later validation
# dates read earlier validation rows - feature values already on the table at the timestamp being
# predicted, never a label from the interval that prediction covers. The purge gap the folds impose
# on labels is not crossed.
#
# What the call publishes is a **population**: a named, immutable list of the prediction sets it is
# going to produce, computed from the resolved specification before the first fit. Afterwards every
# member must exist and be complete, which is why a failure fails the whole call rather than
# publishing a population one member short. Everything that finished stays registered, and
# re-running trains only what is missing.
#
# `SUPERSEDES_POPULATION` names the population hash this run replaces, and is empty because this is
# the first generation under this name. Anything that moves a training identity - a changed epoch
# schedule, lookback, patch size or device - produces a different population under the same name,
# and the registry refuses to write it without being told which snapshot it supersedes.

# %%
population_name = POPULATION_NAME or "sp500_equity_option_analytics-patchtst-validation-v1"
execution, population = run_model_population(
    study,
    resolved,
    population_name=population_name,
    supersedes=population_supersedes(study, name=population_name, declared=SUPERSEDES_POPULATION),
)

reused = sum(1 for item in execution.diagnostics if item.get("reused"))
print(
    f"{len(execution.runs)} configurations: {len(execution.runs) - reused} trained, {reused} read"
)
print(f"population {population.name}: {len(population.members)} prediction sets")

# %% [markdown]
# ## 4. What came out
#
# One row per epoch checkpoint. `ic_mean` is the **information coefficient**: on each validation
# date, rank the stocks by the model's prediction, rank them by the return they went on to earn,
# correlate the two rankings, and average that daily correlation over the validation period. Zero is
# no relationship.
#
# `ic_n_days` is how many validation dates produced a defined correlation. A network that has
# settled into predicting nearly the same value for every stock on a date gives that date no spread
# to rank, and the date drops out of the average - so a checkpoint with fewer scored dates has its
# `ic_mean` taken over a different sample from its neighbours', and `full_coverage` marks the rows
# measured on every date this label offers.

# %% tags=["results"]
catalog = (
    execution.catalog_rows.select(
        "config_name",
        "label",
        "task",
        "complete",
        "checkpoint_value",
        "ic_mean",
        "ic_std",
        "ic_n_days",
        "auc_mean_daily",
        "direction_label",
        "n_folds",
        "training_hash",
        "prediction_hash",
    )
    .sort("label", "checkpoint_value")
    .join(configs.select("config_name", "label", "params"), on=["config_name", "label"], how="left")
)

if catalog.filter(~pl.col("complete")).height:
    raise RuntimeError("patched-attention execution returned a partial prediction set")
if set(catalog.get_column("prediction_hash")) != set(population.members):
    raise RuntimeError("the published catalog differs from the population declared before fitting")

catalog = catalog.with_columns(
    full_coverage=pl.col("ic_n_days") == pl.col("ic_n_days").max().over("label")
)

primary = primary_label(study)
present = sorted(set(catalog.get_column("label")))
print(f"{catalog.height} candidate models across {len(present)} label(s)")
print(f"primary label fitted here: {primary in present}")
catalog.select(
    "label",
    "params",
    "checkpoint_value",
    "ic_mean",
    "ic_std",
    "ic_n_days",
    "auc_mean_daily",
    "full_coverage",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ### What more training does
#
# The line traces out-of-sample IC as epochs are added. It separates two things a single
# end-of-training number cannot.
#
# A line that rises and then falls has an interior optimum: the network was still learning, then
# began fitting the training window at the expense of the validation folds. A line that wanders
# around zero without trend never had anything to learn in the first place, and its highest point is
# wherever the noise happened to peak. Both produce a respectable-looking maximum, which is why the
# maximum is not what a configuration is judged on, and why every checkpoint is registered rather
# than only the strongest.

# %%
curve = catalog.filter("full_coverage").sort("label", "checkpoint_value")
fig = go.Figure()
for label in sorted(set(curve.get_column("label"))):
    rows = curve.filter(pl.col("label") == label).sort("checkpoint_value")
    fig.add_trace(
        go.Scatter(
            x=rows.get_column("checkpoint_value").to_list(),
            y=rows.get_column("ic_mean").to_list(),
            mode="lines+markers",
            name=label,
            line=dict(color=COLORS["blue"] if label == primary else COLORS["recede"], width=2),
            marker=dict(size=5),
        )
    )
fig.add_hline(y=0, line_width=1, line_dash="dash", line_color=COLORS["neutral"])
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Mean IC (validation)")
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Training epochs completed")
fig.update_layout(
    title="Validation IC against training epoch",
    height=460,
    width=880,
    margin=dict(t=90),
)
# The span of the line and where it sits relative to zero are facts about the frame, so the
# description counts them rather than asserting a shape the next run may not reproduce.
spans = "; ".join(
    "{} spans {:+.4f} to {:+.4f} with {} of {} checkpoints above zero".format(
        row["label"], row["lo"], row["hi"], row["above"], row["total"]
    )
    for row in curve.group_by("label")
    .agg(
        lo=pl.col("ic_mean").min(),
        hi=pl.col("ic_mean").max(),
        above=(pl.col("ic_mean") > 0).sum(),
        total=pl.len(),
    )
    .sort("label")
    .iter_rows(named=True)
)
show_plotly_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Line chart of mean validation information coefficient against training epochs completed, one "
    f"line per fitted label with a dashed zero line. Counted from the frame: {spans}.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ## 5. What to notice
#
# **A single-label population cannot separate the architecture from the target.** The rest of the
# family is fitted on three labels, so a pattern that holds across all three there is evidence about
# the architecture. Here there is one, and whatever this curve does is a statement about this
# architecture on this target, jointly. Reading it as a statement about patched attention in
# general takes more than one label's worth of evidence out of one label.
#
# **The patch size is not searched.** One value is declared and one is fitted, so nothing here says
# whether a coarser or finer patch reads this surface better. Adding a second preset and listing it
# under the label's `deep_learning` menu is what would make that a question this notebook answers;
# as it stands the patch size is a fixed assumption rather than a tested one.
#
# **Nothing here is selected.** Every checkpoint is registered, and what advances is decided in
# [`14_backtest`](14_backtest.ipynb) on validation backtest Sharpe after costs.
#
# **Next**: [`11_latent_factors`](11_latent_factors.ipynb) turns to the latent-factor families, and
# [`13_model_analysis`](13_model_analysis.ipynb) compares every family fitted so far.

```