2026 연준 금리 인상에 대한 멀티에이전트 예측
코드 Machine Learning for Trading
요약
이 기록은 연방준비제도가 2026에 목표 금리를 올릴지에 관한 LangGraph 예측 실행 한 건을 담고 있습니다. 세 에이전트가 확률을 제시한 뒤 토론과 감독자 업데이트가 이어졌습니다. 기록된 결과에는 종합 확률, 토론 중간값, 감독자가 수정한 추정치와 인플레이션, 경제 전망, 정책 기대에 관한 검색어 및 발췌문이 포함됩니다. 에이전트들은 인플레이션 전망, 지정학적 갈등의 영향, 연준의 예상 대응을 두고 의견이 달랐습니다.
이 기록은 멀티에이전트 워크플로가 개별 예측을 토론과 감독 검토로 결합하는 사례를 보여줍니다. 다만 근거는 제한적입니다. 에이전트와 감독자는 서로 다른 가정을 인용하고, 수집된 검색 자료도 일부에 그칩니다. 결과가 확정된 기록, 보정 이력, 다른 체계와의 비교, 최종 확률이 시장 내재 확률보다 정확했다는 근거가 없습니다. 따라서 예측 과정과 의견이 갈리는 지점을 보여줄 뿐, 이 과정이 트레이딩 의사결정을 개선한다고 입증할 수는 없습니다.
핵심 아이디어
- 이 실행은 세 에이전트의 확률을 토론 중간값 및 감독자가 수정한 예측과 결합합니다.
- 에이전트들은 인플레이션, 지정학적 영향, 연방준비제도 정책의 예상 방향에 대해 의견이 다릅니다.
- 검색 발췌문과 인용된 전망이 토론에 참고되지만 수집된 근거는 불완전합니다.
- 결과가 확정된 기록이나 과거 보정 데이터가 없으므로 이 한 번의 실행으로 예측 정확도를 입증할 수 없습니다.
태그
전문
# 10_framework_comparison_20260609T151202Z_c8cba3007562.json
```json
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"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
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"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
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"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rate projections 2025 2026 economic outlook inflation\"}"
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{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Fed Projections: Solid Growth, Higher Short-Term Inflation - Statista\n URL: https://www.statista.com/chart/31437/fed-projections-of-inflation-interest-rates-gdp-growth-and-unemployment\n As your partner for data-driven success, we combine expertise in research, strategy, and marketing communications. See why Statista is the trusted choice for reliable data and insights. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment and a high degree of uncertainty regarding the impact of the Iran war on the U.S. economy, the Fed remains cautiously optimistic in its latest economic outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee's median growth projection for 2026 is now 2.4 percent, up from 2.3 percent in December and just 1.8 percent in September. For 2027, the FOMC is now predicting\u2026"
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"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
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"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Fed Projections: Solid Growth, Higher Short-Term Inflation - Statista\n URL: https://www.statista.com/chart/31437/fed-projections-of-inflation-interest-rates-gdp-growth-and-unemployment\n As your partner for data-driven success, we combine expertise in research, strategy, and marketing communications. See why Statista is the trusted choice for reliable data and insights. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment and a high degree of uncertainty regarding the impact of the Iran war on the U.S. economy, the Fed remains cautiously optimistic in its latest economic outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee's median growth projection for 2026 is now 2.4 percent, up from 2.3 percent in December and just 1.8 percent in September. For 2027, the FOMC is now predicting\u2026"
},
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"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2026 rate hike probability inflation expectations economic conditions\"}"
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{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Markets raise chances for a Fed rate hike following hot inflation report\n URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/markets-raise-chances-for-a-fed-rate-hike-following-hot-inflation-report.html\n Traders moved further away Tuesday from expecting any [Federal Reserve](https://www.cnbc.com/federal-reserve/) interest rate cuts and in fact began anticipating a higher probability that the next move would be a hike. Following a [hotter-than-expected inflation report](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html), market pricing took virtually any chance of a cut off the table between now and the end of 2027, according to the CME Group's [FedWatch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-t\u2026"
}
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"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
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{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rate projections 2025 2026 economic outlook inflation\"}"
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{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Fed Projections: Solid Growth, Higher Short-Term Inflation - Statista\n URL: https://www.statista.com/chart/31437/fed-projections-of-inflation-interest-rates-gdp-growth-and-unemployment\n As your partner for data-driven success, we combine expertise in research, strategy, and marketing communications. See why Statista is the trusted choice for reliable data and insights. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment and a high degree of uncertainty regarding the impact of the Iran war on the U.S. economy, the Fed remains cautiously optimistic in its latest economic outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee's median growth projection for 2026 is now 2.4 percent, up from 2.3 percent in December and just 1.8 percent in September. For 2027, the FOMC is now predicting\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2026 rate hike probability inflation expectations economic conditions\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Markets raise chances for a Fed rate hike following hot inflation report\n URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/markets-raise-chances-for-a-fed-rate-hike-following-hot-inflation-report.html\n Traders moved further away Tuesday from expecting any [Federal Reserve](https://www.cnbc.com/federal-reserve/) interest rate cuts and in fact began anticipating a higher probability that the next move would be a hike. Following a [hotter-than-expected inflation report](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html), market pricing took virtually any chance of a cut off the table between now and the end of 2027, according to the CME Group's [FedWatch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-t\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Kevin Warsh Fed Chair 2026 monetary policy stance inflation Iran war energy prices\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Kevin Warsh is now leading the Fed. His main challenge is a doozy.\n URL: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-inflation-challenges\n New [Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-federal-reserve-chair/) could face a rude awakening this week with the release of key inflation data that economists expect to show consumer prices continuing to surge in April. After being\u00a0[sworn in Friday](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-federal-reserve-chair/) as Fed chair, Warsh's most pressing order of business will be to rein in rising inflation. With [inflation at its highest level](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cpi-report-today-april-2026-inflation-iran-war-trump/)\u00a0in nearly three years, some economists o\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.62,\"rationale\":\"Multiple sources indicate elevated inflation pressures in 2026 due to Iran war driving energy prices higher, with CPI reaching 7.3% annualized in Q2 2026. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces inflation well above the 2% target. Market pricing shows over 50% probability of rate hikes for first time, with traders removing rate cut expectations through 2027. Fed officials discussing 'two-sided' policy approach acknowledging potential need for rate increases if inflation persists above target. While base case was rate cuts, current inflationary environment and hawkish market sentiment suggest meaningful probability of at least one rate hike during 2026.\"}",
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},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
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{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rate outlook 2026 economic forecasts\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Fed Outlook 2026: Rate Forecasts and Fixed Income Strategies\n URL: https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast\n [Skip to content](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#bodyWrapper). * [Our Funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#). [Our Funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#). * [View all funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/etf-investments). * [Compare ETFs](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/compare-funds). * [Discover ETF collections](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/investing-in-etfs-collections). * [Equity](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/etf-investments#/?productView=etf&fac=43535|4\u2026"
}
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"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve dot plot 2026 interest rate projections FOMC members forecast\"}",
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{
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},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rate outlook 2026 economic forecasts\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Fed Outlook 2026: Rate Forecasts and Fixed Income Strategies\n URL: https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast\n [Skip to content](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#bodyWrapper). * [Our Funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#). [Our Funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#). * [View all funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/etf-investments). * [Compare ETFs](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/compare-funds). * [Discover ETF collections](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/investing-in-etfs-collections). * [Equity](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/etf-investments#/?productView=etf&fac=43535|4\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve dot plot 2026 interest rate projections FOMC members forecast\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Dot plot: Fed still expects to cut rates once this year despite spiking oil prices\n URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/dot-plot-fed-still-expects-to-cut-rates-once-this-year-despite-spiking-oil-prices-.html\n # Fed still expects to cut rates once this year despite spiking oil prices. * The Federal Reserve's so-called dot plot showed a median estimate of 3.4% for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026, the same as what it had projected at the end of last year. * However, a closer look at the overall dot plot showed the balance of projections moved toward fewer reductions. The Federal Reserve is still expecting to cut interest rates once this year in spite of a spike in oil prices from the Iran war. The central bank's so-called dot plot, which shows the anonymous e\u2026"
}
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"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rate outlook 2026 economic forecasts\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Fed Outlook 2026: Rate Forecasts and Fixed Income Strategies\n URL: https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast\n [Skip to content](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#bodyWrapper). * [Our Funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#). [Our Funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#). * [View all funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/etf-investments). * [Compare ETFs](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/compare-funds). * [Discover ETF collections](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/investing-in-etfs-collections). * [Equity](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/etf-investments#/?productView=etf&fac=43535|4\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve dot plot 2026 interest rate projections FOMC members forecast\"}"
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{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Dot plot: Fed still expects to cut rates once this year despite spiking oil prices\n URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/dot-plot-fed-still-expects-to-cut-rates-once-this-year-despite-spiking-oil-prices-.html\n # Fed still expects to cut rates once this year despite spiking oil prices. * The Federal Reserve's so-called dot plot showed a median estimate of 3.4% for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026, the same as what it had projected at the end of last year. * However, a closer look at the overall dot plot showed the balance of projections moved toward fewer reductions. The Federal Reserve is still expecting to cut interest rates once this year in spite of a spike in oil prices from the Iran war. The central bank's so-called dot plot, which shows the anonymous e\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve current interest rate 2026 recent FOMC meetings economic conditions inflation\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. United States Fed Funds Interest Rate - Trading Economics\n URL: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate\n inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2%, minutes from the FOMC meeting in April 2026 showed. the 3.5%\u20133.75% target range. The benchmark\n\n2. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260429.htm\n overall inflation had moved. Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent,\n\n3. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm\n Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve inflation data 2026 economic outlook labor market conditions rate hike scenarios\"}",
"input_tokens": 9094,
"output_tokens": 28,
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"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:10:46+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 29,
"label": "langgraph",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rate outlook 2026 economic forecasts\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Fed Outlook 2026: Rate Forecasts and Fixed Income Strategies\n URL: https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast\n [Skip to content](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#bodyWrapper). * [Our Funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#). [Our Funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/fed-outlook-2026-interest-rate-forecast#). * [View all funds](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/etf-investments). * [Compare ETFs](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/compare-funds). * [Discover ETF collections](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/investing-in-etfs-collections). * [Equity](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/etf-investments#/?productView=etf&fac=43535|4\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve dot plot 2026 interest rate projections FOMC members forecast\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Dot plot: Fed still expects to cut rates once this year despite spiking oil prices\n URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/dot-plot-fed-still-expects-to-cut-rates-once-this-year-despite-spiking-oil-prices-.html\n # Fed still expects to cut rates once this year despite spiking oil prices. * The Federal Reserve's so-called dot plot showed a median estimate of 3.4% for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026, the same as what it had projected at the end of last year. * However, a closer look at the overall dot plot showed the balance of projections moved toward fewer reductions. The Federal Reserve is still expecting to cut interest rates once this year in spite of a spike in oil prices from the Iran war. The central bank's so-called dot plot, which shows the anonymous e\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve current interest rate 2026 recent FOMC meetings economic conditions inflation\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. United States Fed Funds Interest Rate - Trading Economics\n URL: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate\n inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2%, minutes from the FOMC meeting in April 2026 showed. the 3.5%\u20133.75% target range. The benchmark\n\n2. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260429.htm\n overall inflation had moved. Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent,\n\n3. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm\n Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve inflation data 2026 economic outlook labor market conditions rate hike scenarios\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. Economic outlook for 2026, focusing on the United States ...\n URL: https://rsmus.com/insights/economics/economic-outlook-for-2026.html\n * [2025 economic and policy updates](https://rsmus.com/insights/inflation.html \"2025 economic and policy updates\"). 3. [Middle market](https://rsmus.com/insights/economics.html). * [First alternative scenario: Stronger growth](https://rsmus.com/insights/economics/economic-outlook-for-2026.html#first-alternative-scenario \"First alternative scenario: Stronger growth\"). * [Ireland: Robust growth, but supply constraints bite](https://rsmus.com/insights/economics/economic-outlook-for-2026.html#ireland). [Canada outlook: A struggle for growth amid trade tensions](https://rsmus.com/insights/economics/economic-outlook-for-2026.html#c\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.35,\"rationale\":\"Based on current evidence, Fed is maintaining rates at 3.5-3.75% range through 2026 with dot plot showing median expectation of 3.4% by end-2026 (indicating rate cuts, not hikes). Inflation remains elevated at 2.7% core PCE but trending toward 2% target. Labor market shows signs of cooling with unemployment around 4.3-4.5%. Energy price spikes from Middle East conflict create upside inflation risks, but Fed's primary stance is dovish with rate cut expectations rather than hike scenarios. Market implies 54.5% chance of hikes, but economic fundamentals and Fed communications suggest continued easing bias unless significant inflation resurgence occurs.\"}",
"input_tokens": 13253,
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"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:10:55+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 30,
"label": "langgraph",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rate projections 2026 economic outlook inflation employment\"}",
"input_tokens": 254,
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"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:10:56+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 31,
"label": "langgraph",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rate projections 2026 economic outlook inflation employment\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. The Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | Goldman Sachs\n URL: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\n * [Global Institute](https://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/goldman-sachs-global-institute). * [Exchanges](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges). * [The Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets). * [Top of Mind](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/top-of-mind). * [Outlooks](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks). * [Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/markets). * [Macroeconomics](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/macroeconomics). * [Alternative and Private Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/alternatives-private-markets). * [E\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve December 2024 interest rate decision inflation unemployment economic conditions\"}",
"input_tokens": 6025,
"output_tokens": 25,
"total_tokens": 6050,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:10:59+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 32,
"label": "langgraph",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rate projections 2026 economic outlook inflation employment\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. The Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | Goldman Sachs\n URL: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\n * [Global Institute](https://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/goldman-sachs-global-institute). * [Exchanges](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges). * [The Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets). * [Top of Mind](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/top-of-mind). * [Outlooks](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks). * [Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/markets). * [Macroeconomics](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/macroeconomics). * [Alternative and Private Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/alternatives-private-markets). * [E\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve December 2024 interest rate decision inflation unemployment economic conditions\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. The Fed - December 18, 2024: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20241218.htm\n In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on December 17\u201318, 2024, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2024 to 2027 and over the longer run. Each participant\u2019s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy\u2014including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value\u2014and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. | PC\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2025 2026 interest rate outlook inflation projections dot plot Trump administration economic policy\"}",
"input_tokens": 8132,
"output_tokens": 32,
"total_tokens": 8164,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:11:02+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 33,
"label": "langgraph",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "system",
"content": "You are a forecasting agent in a multi-agent forecasting system.\n\nYour job:\n1) Gather evidence by issuing web/news search queries when needed.\n2) Then produce a binary probability forecast for the question.\n\nYou must follow the action schema exactly and output valid JSON only.\nYou must not browse prediction market prices unless they are explicitly provided."
},
{
"role": "user",
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nMARKET CONTEXT:\nResolves YES if the upper bound of the federal funds target rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting (scheduled December 8-9, 2026).\n\nMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY (p_yes):\n0.545\n\nNEXT ACTION SCHEMA (output JSON only):\nIf you need more info:\n{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"...\"}\nIf you are ready to forecast:\n{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.XX,\"rationale\":\"short explanation grounded in evidence and base rates\"}\n\nPick exactly one action."
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve interest rate projections 2026 economic outlook inflation employment\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. The Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 | Goldman Sachs\n URL: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\n * [Global Institute](https://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/goldman-sachs-global-institute). * [Exchanges](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges). * [The Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/the-markets). * [Top of Mind](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/top-of-mind). * [Outlooks](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks). * [Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/markets). * [Macroeconomics](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/macroeconomics). * [Alternative and Private Markets](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/alternatives-private-markets). * [E\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve December 2024 interest rate decision inflation unemployment economic conditions\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. The Fed - December 18, 2024: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version\n URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20241218.htm\n In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on December 17\u201318, 2024, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2024 to 2027 and over the longer run. Each participant\u2019s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy\u2014including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value\u2014and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. | PC\u2026"
},
{
"role": "assistant",
"content": "{\"action\":\"search\",\"query\":\"Federal Reserve 2025 2026 interest rate outlook inflation projections dot plot Trump administration economic policy\"}"
},
{
"role": "tool",
"content": "SEARCH RESULTS:\n1. [PDF] The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2025\u20132026 - University of Michigan\n URL: https://lsa.umich.edu/content/dam/econ-assets/Econdocs/RSQE%20PDFs/RSQE_US_Forecast_Feb25.pdf\n We project PCE inflation to hold steady near a 2.2 percent annualized rate from 2025Q4\u20132026Q4 .Even so, we expect two more 25 basis point cuts in 2026, bringing the fed funds rate to 3.25\u20133.5 percent by the end of 2026, the terminal range for this cycle. It is increasingly likely for the 2025 housing market to look a lot like 2024's: mortgage rates remain elevated; housing supply could see a slight improvement with modest growth in new home construction and less restricted existing home inventories; and demand remains tepid with continued strength in rentals. We expect a gradual uptick in new singl\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"action\":\"forecast\",\"p_yes\":0.35,\"rationale\":\"Based on recent Fed communications and economic projections, rate hikes in 2026 appear unlikely. The December 2024 FOMC projections show the Fed expects to continue gradual rate cuts, with the University of Michigan forecast projecting the fed funds rate to reach 3.25-3.5% by end-2026 through additional cuts. Core inflation is projected to remain around 2.2% in 2026, near the Fed's 2% target, reducing pressure for rate increases. The labor market appears stable with unemployment around 4.1%. While Trump administration policies could create some inflationary pressure through tariffs, the overall economic outlook suggests a continued easing cycle rather than tightening. Historical base rates show rate hikes typically occur during periods of acce\u2026",
"input_tokens": 10116,
"output_tokens": 205,
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"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:11:11+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 34,
"label": "langgraph",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "user",
"content": "You are the BULL debater in a structured forecasting debate.\n\nYour role is to argue for a HIGHER probability of YES for the question below.\nYou must present the strongest possible case for YES, backed by evidence.\n\nQUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nAGENT SUMMARIES:\nAgent: agent_0\nProbability (p_yes): 0.62\nConfidence: 0.24\nRationale: Multiple sources indicate elevated inflation pressures in 2026 due to Iran war driving energy prices higher, with CPI reaching 7.3% annualized in Q2 2026. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces inflation wel\n\nAgent: agent_1\nProbability (p_yes): 0.35\nConfidence: 0.30\nRationale: Based on current evidence, Fed is maintaining rates at 3.5-3.75% range through 2026 with dot plot showing median expectation of 3.4% by end-2026 (indicating rate cuts, not\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"argument\": \"The Federal Reserve will likely be forced to hike rates in 2026 due to a perfect storm of inflationary pressures that will overwhelm current dovish expectations. The geopolitical crisis involving Iran is already driving energy prices significantly higher, with CPI reaching 7.3% annualized by Q2 2026 - well above the Fed's 2% target. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance, will prioritize credibility in fighting inflation over maintaining accommodative policy. Current market expectations of continued rate cuts are based on 2024 conditions and fail to account for the emerging inflationary shock from energy disruptions and supply chain impacts. The Fed's dual mandate will force them to prioritize price stability when inflation reaches these elevated levels, maki\u2026",
"input_tokens": 405,
"output_tokens": 281,
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"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:11:19+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 35,
"label": "langgraph",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "user",
"content": "You are the BEAR debater in a structured forecasting debate.\n\nYour role is to argue for a LOWER probability of YES for the question below.\nYou must present the strongest possible case for NO (or lower probability), backed by evidence.\n\nQUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nAGENT SUMMARIES:\nAgent: agent_0\nProbability (p_yes): 0.62\nConfidence: 0.24\nRationale: Multiple sources indicate elevated inflation pressures in 2026 due to Iran war driving energy prices higher, with CPI reaching 7.3% annualized in Q2 2026. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces inflation wel\n\nAgent: agent_1\nProbability (p_yes): 0.35\nConfidence: 0.30\nRationale: Based on current evidence, Fed is maintaining rates at 3.5-3.75% range through 2026 with dot plot showing median expectation of 3.4% by end-2026 (indic\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\n \"argument\": \"The Federal Reserve will not hike rates in 2026 because the economic fundamentals strongly favor continued accommodation. The current Fed dot plot explicitly shows median expectations of 3.4% rates by end-2026, indicating planned cuts from the current 3.5-3.75% range. The Bull's inflation scenario is speculative and ignores several key factors: 1) Energy price spikes are typically temporary and the Fed has historically looked through transitory supply shocks rather than aggressively hiking into them, 2) The U.S. economy in 2026 will still be recovering from previous tightening cycles, making aggressive rate hikes counterproductive and likely to trigger recession, 3) Even if Kevin Warsh becomes Fed Chair, he would face enormous pressure from Congress and markets not to over\u2026",
"input_tokens": 628,
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"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:11:29+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 36,
"label": "langgraph",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "user",
"content": "You are the BULL debater in a structured forecasting debate.\n\nYour role is to argue for a HIGHER probability of YES for the question below.\nYou must present the strongest possible case for YES, backed by evidence.\n\nQUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nAGENT SUMMARIES:\nAgent: agent_0\nProbability (p_yes): 0.62\nConfidence: 0.24\nRationale: Multiple sources indicate elevated inflation pressures in 2026 due to Iran war driving energy prices higher, with CPI reaching 7.3% annualized in Q2 2026. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces inflation wel\n\nAgent: agent_1\nProbability (p_yes): 0.35\nConfidence: 0.30\nRationale: Based on current evidence, Fed is maintaining rates at 3.5-3.75% range through 2026 with dot plot showing median expectation of 3.4% by end-2026 (indicating rate cuts, not\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"argument\": \"The Bear fundamentally underestimates the severity and persistence of the 2026 inflation crisis. Agent_0 correctly identifies that CPI reaches 7.3% annualized in Q2 2026 due to Iran war-driven energy shocks - this is not a temporary blip but a sustained geopolitical crisis that will persist throughout 2026. The Bear's reliance on current dot plots is misguided because these projections were made before the Iran conflict escalated and energy markets destabilized. Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair changes everything - he's historically hawkish and will prioritize price stability over employment concerns. The Bear incorrectly assumes the Fed 'looks through' supply shocks, but 7.3% inflation with energy-driven second-round effects into wages and services requires aggressive action. The 19\u2026",
"input_tokens": 696,
"output_tokens": 349,
"total_tokens": 1045,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:11:39+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 37,
"label": "langgraph",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "user",
"content": "You are the BEAR debater in a structured forecasting debate.\n\nYour role is to argue for a LOWER probability of YES for the question below.\nYou must present the strongest possible case for NO (or lower probability), backed by evidence.\n\nQUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nAGENT SUMMARIES:\nAgent: agent_0\nProbability (p_yes): 0.62\nConfidence: 0.24\nRationale: Multiple sources indicate elevated inflation pressures in 2026 due to Iran war driving energy prices higher, with CPI reaching 7.3% annualized in Q2 2026. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces inflation wel\n\nAgent: agent_1\nProbability (p_yes): 0.35\nConfidence: 0.30\nRationale: Based on current evidence, Fed is maintaining rates at 3.5-3.75% range through 2026 with dot plot showing median expectation of 3.4% by end-2026 (indic\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\n \"argument\": \"The Bull severely overestimates the Fed's willingness and ability to hike rates in 2026. First, the 7.3% inflation figure appears to be a temporary supply shock from geopolitical tensions, not broad-based demand-driven inflation requiring monetary tightening. The Fed has consistently demonstrated it 'looks through' temporary supply shocks, as seen with COVID-era disruptions. Second, by 2026, the economy will likely be in recession or severe slowdown from the energy crisis itself - hiking rates into an already contracting economy would be economically destructive and politically impossible. Third, the current dot plot projections showing continued rate cuts through 2026 reflect the Fed's assessment of underlying economic fundamentals, which remain disinflationary due to dem\u2026",
"input_tokens": 706,
"output_tokens": 378,
"total_tokens": 1084,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:11:50+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 38,
"label": "langgraph",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "user",
"content": "You are the SUPERVISOR agent.\n\nYou receive M agent forecasts and rationales for the same question.\nYour job is NOT to average them directly.\n\nStep 1: Identify key disagreements, ambiguities, missing base rates, or claims that should be fact-checked.\nStep 2: Propose up to 2 clarifying search queries that would resolve these disagreements.\n\nOutput JSON only with:\n{\"disagreements\": [\"...\"], \"queries\": [\"...\"]}\n\nAGENT INPUTS:\nAgent: agent_0\nProbability (p_yes): 0.62\nConfidence: 0.24\nRationale: Multiple sources indicate elevated inflation pressures in 2026 due to Iran war driving energy prices higher, with CPI reaching 7.3% annualized in Q2 2026. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces inflation wel\n\nAgent: agent_1\nProbability (p_yes): 0.35\nConfidence: 0.30\nRationale: Based on current evidence, Fed is\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\n \"disagreements\": [\n \"Agent 0 claims Iran war drives energy prices higher causing 7.3% CPI in Q2 2026, while agents 1-2 see Fed maintaining current dovish stance with continued rate cuts\",\n \"Agent 0 assumes Kevin Warsh becomes Fed Chair facing inflation pressures, while agents 1-2 base analysis on current Fed leadership and December 2024 FOMC projections showing gradual cuts\",\n \"Fundamental disagreement on inflation trajectory: Agent 0 forecasts significant inflation requiring hikes vs agents 1-2 expecting continued disinflation allowing cuts\"\n ],\n \"queries\": [\n \"Federal Reserve December 2024 FOMC meeting projections dot plot interest rates 2026\",\n \"Iran conflict impact oil prices energy inflation forecasts 2025-2026\"\n ]\n}",
"input_tokens": 376,
"output_tokens": 203,
"total_tokens": 579,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:11:55+00:00"
},
{
"seq": 39,
"label": "langgraph",
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
"json_mode": true,
"messages": [
{
"role": "user",
"content": "You are the SUPERVISOR agent.\n\nGiven:\n1) The original question\n2) The set of agent forecasts and rationales\n3) Additional evidence from your follow-up searches\n\nYou must output:\n1) Updated forecast p_yes in [0,1]\n2) Confidence in whether your update direction is correct: \"high\" | \"medium\" | \"low\"\n3) A short rationale\n\nOutput JSON only:\n{\"p_yes\": 0.0, \"confidence\": \"high\", \"rationale\": \"...\"}\n\nQUESTION:\nWill the Federal Reserve hike rates in 2026?\n\nAGENT INPUTS:\nAgent: agent_0\nProbability (p_yes): 0.62\nConfidence: 0.24\nRationale: Multiple sources indicate elevated inflation pressures in 2026 due to Iran war driving energy prices higher, with CPI reaching 7.3% annualized in Q2 2026. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces inflation wel\n\nAgent: agent_1\nProbability (p_yes): 0.35\nConfidence: 0.30\nRatio\u2026"
}
],
"response": "{\"p_yes\": 0.65, \"confidence\": \"medium\", \"rationale\": \"The evidence reveals a critical conflict between pre-war Fed projections showing continued rate cuts through 2026, and the actual inflationary shock from the February 2026 Iran war. Multiple academic sources confirm the conflict has driven oil prices significantly higher, with headline inflation rising 0.6 percentage points and core inflation 0.2 points in 2026. This represents a major shift from the Fed's original dovish stance, likely forcing policy reversal toward rate hikes to combat energy-driven inflation.\"}",
"input_tokens": 9010,
"output_tokens": 132,
"total_tokens": 9142,
"timestamp": "2026-06-09T15:12:02+00:00"
}
],
"notes": "Variant C (LangGraph) \u2014 raw model conversation captured at the client boundary.",
"created_at": "2026-06-09T15:12:02+00:00",
"run_id": "c8cba3007562"
}
```출처의 라이선스에 따라 출처를 표시하고 전문을 공개합니다. 라이선스: MIT
이 요약은 원문을 바탕으로 Stratmill의 리서치 에이전트가 작성했으며, 원문을 복사한 것이 아닙니다.