Метки будущей доходности ETF и диагностика утечек

# 02_labels.py


```py
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# %% [markdown]
# # ETFs: Label Engineering
#
# Every model in this case study is trained to predict the label. An error in it produces no
# warning here and changes every result that follows, so this notebook defines the labels,
# checks the definition, sets the floor a feature must clear, and writes the label files every
# later stage of the case study trains and scores against.
#
# ## Learning objectives
#
# - Write a forward-return label as a formula: from which price at which time, to which
#   price at which time
# - Check that every labelled row has a complete forward window inside one symbol
# - Measure how much independent information an overlapping label carries, and keep a
#   diagnostic clear of the holdout by the date each label resolves rather than the date it
#   is observed
# - Measure what one unengineered signal earns against the label, on the same rows the
#   feature work will be scored on, so later work is compared against a floor fixed first
#
# ## Book reference, prerequisites and artifacts
#
# Chapter 7, Section 7.2. Reads split- and dividend-adjusted daily bars via `load_etfs()`
# (verified in [`01_feasibility_analysis`](01_feasibility_analysis.ipynb)) and
# `config/setup.yaml`, which declares the label set, horizons and holdout boundary. Writes
# `labels/fwd_ret_21d.parquet` and `labels/fwd_ret_5d.parquet`. The first notebook to open
# them is [`05_evaluation`](05_evaluation.ipynb), which scores engineered features against
# the primary label; the model notebooks from `06_linear.py` onward load whichever label they
# train on, and the cross-validation folds are cut from that file's own timeline.

# %%
"""ETFs: Label Engineering."""

import math
from datetime import date

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import polars as pl
import yaml
from ml4t.diagnostic.metrics import compute_ic_hac_stats, cross_sectional_ic_series

from case_studies.utils.artifact_digest import value_digest, write_artifact
from case_studies.utils.artifact_quality import quality_report, render_quality_report
from case_studies.utils.label_diagnostics import effective_sample_size, panel_autocorrelation
from case_studies.utils.warning_policy import apply_notebook_warning_policy
from data import load_etfs
from utils.artifact_specs import resolve_label_horizon
from utils.paths import get_case_study_dir
from utils.style import COLORS, FIGSIZE, add_message_title, show_with_alt

apply_notebook_warning_policy()

CASE_DIR = get_case_study_dir("etfs")
LABELS_DIR = CASE_DIR / "labels"

# %% [markdown]
# `MAX_SYMBOLS` and `START_DATE` cut the universe and the history for a shorter run; both are
# unset here. `MIN_SYMBOLS_FOR_DISPERSION` sets the smallest cross-section Section E will take
# a standard deviation over.

# %% tags=["parameters"]
MAX_SYMBOLS = None
START_DATE = None
MIN_SYMBOLS_FOR_DISPERSION = 10

# %% [markdown]
# ## Configuration
#
# Every value that defines a label comes from `config/setup.yaml`: the label set, the
# horizons and the holdout boundary. `resolve_label_horizon` reads `labels.horizons` where a
# case study declares it and falls back to the cross-validation buffer, which here is the
# same number.

# %%
setup = yaml.safe_load((CASE_DIR / "config" / "setup.yaml").read_text())

PRIMARY_LABEL = setup["labels"]["primary"]
LABEL_NAMES = [PRIMARY_LABEL, *setup["labels"].get("variants", [])]
HORIZONS = {n: int(resolve_label_horizon("etfs", n, setup).rstrip("Dd")) for n in LABEL_NAMES}
HOLDOUT_START = date.fromisoformat(setup["evaluation"]["holdout_start"])
PRIMARY_HORIZON = HORIZONS[PRIMARY_LABEL]
VARIANT_LABEL = LABEL_NAMES[1]

print(
    f"The primary label {PRIMARY_LABEL} is a forward return over {PRIMARY_HORIZON} trading "
    "sessions - the horizon a monthly hold spans, and the one every model here is trained on."
    f"\nThe variant {VARIANT_LABEL} is the same construction over {HORIZONS[VARIANT_LABEL]} "
    "sessions, which is what a weekly hold would need."
    f"\nEverything from {HOLDOUT_START} onward is left for the final test. A row belongs to the "
    "development window only when its forward window closes before that date, not merely when "
    "it is observed before it."
)

# %% [markdown]
# ## A. The learning task
#
# The hypothesis is cross-sectional: among a fixed universe of liquid ETFs, those that rose
# over the past two quarters continue to outrank those that did not over the following month.
# The label itself is each ETF's own forward return over a window a monthly hold spans; what
# makes the statement a relative one is how the label is scored, by rank correlation across
# the ETFs quoted on a date rather than by the level any one of them reached.
# `setup.yaml` sets the decision cadence to a month-end close with execution at the next open,
# which fixes the primary horizon at one trading month. The weekly variant asks whether the
# same hypothesis pays over a shorter hold, which is a question about turnover and cost.
#
# Labels are sampled every session rather than only at month ends. That gives an order of
# magnitude more rows, and consecutive rows then overlap; Section F measures how much
# independent information they carry.

# %% [markdown]
# ## B. Preparation before the label
#
# A forward window is meaningful only on a price series that is adjusted, ordered and
# complete; sorting by `symbol` then `timestamp` is what makes a shift mean "the next session
# for this ETF".
#
# The labels are built on the full price history, and the eligibility rules in
# `eligibility.csv` are applied afterwards - to the Section G baseline, and to the trainable
# panel in `03_financial_features`. The order is what keeps the horizon in trading sessions:
# a shift of $h$ counts $h$ rows of whatever frame it runs on, so it has to run on the frame
# that still has every session in it.
#
# The panel is unbalanced, which matters from Section E onward: several of these ETFs listed
# after the history starts, so the number of symbols quoting on a date is not the size of the
# universe. Every cross-sectional quantity below - the spread within a date, the rank
# correlation - is computed over whatever is quoting that day, and needs a minimum before it
# means anything.
#
# The *digest* printed below is a hash of the price values the labels are built from, taken
# over the symbol, timestamp and close columns the cell reads. Section H writes it beside each
# label file, so a stored label can be traced back to the download it came from.

# %%
prices = load_etfs().select(["symbol", "timestamp", "close"]).sort(["symbol", "timestamp"])

if START_DATE is not None:
    prices = prices.filter(pl.col("timestamp") >= date.fromisoformat(START_DATE))
if MAX_SYMBOLS is not None:
    prices = prices.filter(
        pl.col("symbol").is_in(sorted(prices["symbol"].unique().to_list())[:MAX_SYMBOLS])
    )

MARKET_DATA_DIGEST = value_digest(prices, ["symbol", "timestamp", "close"])

per_session = prices.group_by("timestamp").len().sort("timestamp")

print(
    f"{prices['symbol'].n_unique()} ETFs, {len(prices):,} rows, sessions "
    f"{prices['timestamp'].min()} to {prices['timestamp'].max()}"
    f"\n{per_session['len'].item(0)} of them quote on the first session and "
    f"{per_session['len'].item(-1)} on the last, so the cross-section fills in over the history"
    f"\nmarket_data digest: {MARKET_DATA_DIGEST}"
)

# %% [markdown]
# ## C. Label construction
#
# One execution convention, written once, applied to both horizons:
#
# $$r^{(h)}_{i,t} = \frac{P_{i,t+h}}{P_{i,t}} - 1$$
#
# where $P$ is the adjusted close and $t+h$ counts $h$ **trading sessions** for symbol $i$.
# This is Chapter 7.2's close-to-close convention. The two labels, written to columns
# `fwd_ret_21d` and `fwd_ret_5d`, share the anchor and differ only in $h$.
#
# Two bookkeeping columns are numbered alongside them, on the complete price series before any
# row is dropped: `from_end` counts back from each symbol's last session for Section D, and
# `session` numbers its bars forward for Section F. Neither is written to the label parquet.


# %%
def forward_return(df: pl.DataFrame, horizon: int, name: str) -> pl.DataFrame:
    """Close-to-close forward return over `horizon` trading sessions, per symbol."""
    return df.with_columns(
        (pl.col("close").shift(-horizon).over("symbol") / pl.col("close") - 1).alias(name)
    )


labels_df = prices.with_columns(
    (pl.len().over("symbol") - 1 - pl.int_range(pl.len()).over("symbol")).alias("from_end"),
    pl.int_range(pl.len()).over("symbol").alias("session"),
)
for label_name, horizon in HORIZONS.items():
    labels_df = forward_return(labels_df, horizon, label_name)

print(f"Constructed {', '.join(LABEL_NAMES)}")

# %% [markdown]
# ## D. Window validity
#
# A shift always returns something; the question is whether it is the quantity the label
# claims. Four properties have to hold, and each fails without raising an error, so the cell
# below checks them with `assert`:
#
# 1. A row whose forward window is incomplete carries a null, never a value.
# 2. No labelled window spans a gap in the data. The tolerance is derived rather than tuned:
#    $h$ trading sessions cover about $7h/5$ calendar days on a five-session week, plus a
#    week for exchange holidays.
# 3. No label crosses from one symbol into the next. The labelled row count equals the bar
#    count less $h$ rows per symbol, which holds only if every window closed inside the
#    symbol it opened in.
# 4. No discrete label is derived from a null return. Both labels here are continuous, so
#    this is a check on their dtype.
#
# Property 2 measures the window in calendar days, so it catches a hole of a week or more and
# not a single missing session. An exact session count needs an exchange calendar.

# %%
for label_name, horizon in HORIZONS.items():
    tol = math.ceil(horizon * 7 / 5) + 7
    # How many calendar days the forward window actually spans, for property 2.
    spanned = labels_df.with_columns(
        (pl.col("timestamp").shift(-horizon).over("symbol") - pl.col("timestamp"))
        .dt.total_days()
        .alias("_span")
    )
    tail = spanned.filter(pl.col("from_end") < horizon)
    labelled = spanned.drop_nulls(label_name)

    # 1.
    assert tail[label_name].null_count() == tail.height, f"{label_name}: valued incomplete window"
    # 2.
    assert labelled.filter(pl.col("_span") > tol).height == 0, f"{label_name}: window gap"
    # 3.
    assert labelled.height == len(prices) - horizon * prices["symbol"].n_unique(), (
        f"{label_name}: label crosses a symbol boundary"
    )
    # 4.
    assert labels_df.schema[label_name] == pl.Float64, f"{label_name}: unexpected dtype"

    spans = labelled["_span"]
    print(
        f"{label_name}: {labelled.height:,} labelled rows, spans {spans.min()}-{spans.max()}d "
        f"against a {tol}d tolerance, {tail.height:,} tail rows null"
    )

# %% [markdown]
# The assertions stop the run, but they do not show *where* each label ends. The figure below
# does. Position zero is each symbol's last session, and the share of symbols carrying a label
# falls to zero over exactly the last `horizon` positions and sits flat at one before them.

# %%
profile = (
    labels_df.filter(pl.col("from_end") <= max(HORIZONS.values()) + 3)
    .group_by("from_end")
    .agg([pl.col(n).is_not_null().mean().alias(n) for n in LABEL_NAMES])
    .sort("from_end")
)

fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=FIGSIZE["single"])
for label_name, color in zip(LABEL_NAMES, (COLORS["blue"], COLORS["amber"]), strict=True):
    ax.step(
        profile["from_end"],
        profile[label_name],
        where="mid",
        color=color,
        linewidth=2,
        label=f"{label_name} (h={HORIZONS[label_name]})",
    )
ax.set_xlabel("Sessions from the end of each symbol's series")
ax.set_ylabel("Share of symbols with a non-null label")
ax.set_ylim(-0.05, 1.08)
add_message_title(
    ax,
    "Each label goes null over exactly its own horizon of tail sessions",
    subtitle="Position 0 is each symbol's last session, so time runs right to left",
)
ax.legend(loc="center left", frameon=False)
show_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Two step curves against sessions counted back from the end of each symbol's series. The "
    "share of symbols carrying a non-null label is zero at the tail and jumps to one at "
    "position 5 for the 5-session label and at position 21 for the 21-session label, so each "
    "goes null over exactly as many tail sessions as its own horizon.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# ## E. Distribution and base rate
#
# What scale is the label, and is it stable enough through time that a model fitted on one
# regime measures the same quantity in another? Everything from here through Section G is
# computed on the **development window only**, and the cut is made on the date each label
# resolves rather than the date it is observed. A row observed a week before the holdout
# begins has its forward window closing inside the holdout, so it is a holdout row and a
# filter on the observation date would have left it in. The label files themselves keep every
# row; it is only the diagnostics that are restricted.

# %%
dev = {
    name: labels_df.with_columns(
        pl.col("timestamp").shift(-horizon).over("symbol").alias("_label_end")
    )
    .filter(pl.col("_label_end") < HOLDOUT_START)
    .drop_nulls(name)
    for name, horizon in HORIZONS.items()
}
for label_name, frame in dev.items():
    print(f"{label_name}: {frame.height:,} development rows through {frame['timestamp'].max()}")

# %% [markdown]
# Both labels are drawn on one axis with identical bins, so their shapes can be compared
# directly. What to look for: a label over $h$ sessions should be about $\sqrt{h}$ times as
# wide as a one-session label, and the legend carries each one's standard deviation.

# %%
bins = np.linspace(-0.20, 0.20, 61)
std = {n: dev[n][n].std() for n in LABEL_NAMES}
ratio = std[PRIMARY_LABEL] / std[VARIANT_LABEL]
theory = math.sqrt(PRIMARY_HORIZON / HORIZONS[VARIANT_LABEL])

fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=FIGSIZE["single"])
fills = {VARIANT_LABEL: dict(color=COLORS["amber"], alpha=0.55)}
fills[PRIMARY_LABEL] = dict(color=COLORS["blue"], histtype="step", linewidth=2)
for label_name in (VARIANT_LABEL, PRIMARY_LABEL):
    ax.hist(
        dev[label_name][label_name].to_numpy(),
        bins=bins,
        density=True,
        label=f"{label_name} (std {std[label_name]:.3f})",
        **fills[label_name],
    )
ax.axvline(0, color=COLORS["neutral"], linestyle="--", linewidth=0.8)
ax.set_xlabel("Forward return; the bins span -20% to +20% and a thin tail falls outside")
ax.set_ylabel("Density")
add_message_title(
    ax,
    "Both labels scale with the square root of their horizon",
    subtitle="Identical bins, development window; each label's standard deviation is in the legend",
)
ax.legend(loc="upper left", frameon=False)
show_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Two forward-return distributions on identical bins, centred on zero. The 5-session label "
    "is a tall narrow filled histogram peaking near density 26, and the 21-session label a "
    "lower, much wider outline peaking near 13 and still visible at plus and minus 0.15.",
)

# %% [markdown]
# The second stability question is about the spread the model ranks within. A cross-sectional
# model is scored on how well it orders symbols on a date, so the return that ordering earns
# depends on how far apart the symbols are that day: at twice the spread, the same
# information coefficient returns twice as much.
#
# The spread is measured across symbols within each date, and those daily values are then
# averaged over the year.

# %%
daily_dispersion = (
    dev[PRIMARY_LABEL]
    .group_by("timestamp")
    .agg(pl.col(PRIMARY_LABEL).std().alias("dispersion"), pl.len().alias("n_symbols"))
    .filter(pl.col("n_symbols") >= MIN_SYMBOLS_FOR_DISPERSION)
)
annual = (
    daily_dispersion.with_columns(pl.col("timestamp").dt.year().alias("year"))
    .group_by("year")
    .agg(pl.col("dispersion").mean().alias("dispersion"))
    .sort("year")
)
peak = annual.sort("dispersion", descending=True).row(0, named=True)
median_disp = annual["dispersion"].median()

fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=FIGSIZE["single_wide"])
ax.bar(annual["year"], annual["dispersion"], color=COLORS["blue"], width=0.7)
ax.axhline(median_disp, color=COLORS["copper"], linestyle="--", linewidth=1.2, label="median year")
ax.set_xticks(annual["year"].to_list()[::2])  # integer years, not a float axis
ax.set_xlabel("Year")
ax.set_ylabel("Mean daily cross-sectional std")
add_message_title(
    ax,
    "Cross-sectional dispersion is far from constant",
    subtitle="Spread across symbols within a date, averaged over the year",
)
ax.legend(loc="upper right", frameon=False)
show_with_alt(
    fig,
    "One bar per year of the mean daily cross-sectional standard deviation, against a dashed "
    "line at the median year near 0.039. The bars run from about 0.030 to 0.067, with the two "
    "tallest in 2008 and 2020 and no trend between them.",
)

print(
    f"scale: std ratio {ratio:.2f} against {theory:.2f} under root-horizon scaling; "
    f"dispersion peaks at {peak['dispersion']:.1%} in {peak['year']:.0f} "
    f"against a {median_disp:.1%} median year"
)

# %% [markdown] tags=["results"]
# On the development window the monthly label has a standard deviation of 0.0612 against
# 0.0311 for the weekly label - a ratio of 1.97, close to the 2.05 that
# square-root-of-horizon scaling would give. Cross-sectional dispersion is far from
# constant: it peaks at 6.7% in 2008, against a median year of 3.9%.

# %% [markdown]
# ## F. Overlap and effective sample size
#
# Daily sampling of a multi-session label makes consecutive rows share most of their forward
# window, so the row count overstates how much the sample actually tells us. Two measurements
# follow: how fast the overlap decays, and what the row count is worth once the overlap is
# accounted for. `effective_sample_size` applies Chapter 7.2's average-uniqueness weighting
# one symbol at a time, since it is only one symbol's own windows that overlap each other.
#
# A label over $h$ sessions is built from the $h$ returns realised inside its window, and the
# label one session later shares $h-1$ of them. Average uniqueness therefore approaches $1/h$
# and the effective count approaches $N/h$.
#
# Both measurements count lags on `session`, the grid the label was built on, and not on
# position among the rows that reach `dev`. Where a bar is missing, the surviving rows close
# over the hole, and two windows that share no return get counted as one session apart.

# %% [markdown]
# The figure below shows how fast the overlap decays, pooled across the whole panel so that
# the answer is a property of the label rather than of any one ETF.

# %%
max_lag = PRIMARY_HORIZON + 4
acf = panel_autocorrelation(dev[PRIMARY_LABEL], PRIMARY_LABEL, max_lag=max_lag, bar_col="session")
n_rows, n_eff = effective_sample_size(
    dev[PRIMARY_LABEL], horizon=PRIMARY_HORIZON, bar_col="session"
)

fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=FIGSIZE["single"])
ax.bar(np.arange(1, max_lag + 1), acf, color=COLORS["blue"], width=0.7)
ax.axhline(0, color=COLORS["neutral"], linewidth=0.8)
ax.axvline(
    PRIMARY_HORIZON,
    color=COLORS["copper"],
    linestyle=":",
    linewidth=1.5,
    label=f"lag {PRIMARY_HORIZON} = horizon",
)
ax.set_xlabel("Lag (trading sessions)")
ax.set_ylabel("Panel autocorrelation")
add_message_title(
    ax,
    "Overlap decays to zero by the horizon",
    subtitle=f"{PRIMARY_LABEL} pooled across the panel, development window",
)
ax.legend(loc="upper right", frameon=False)
show_with_alt(
    fig,
    "Bars of panel autocorrelation against lag in trading sessions, falling almost in a "
    "straight line from about 0.94 at lag 1 to zero at lag 21, where a dotted vertical line "
    "marks the label horizon. Beyond that lag the bars sit at zero.",
)

print(
    f"{PRIMARY_LABEL}: N={n_rows:,} N_eff={n_eff:,.0f} ({n_eff / n_rows:.2%} of N, against "
    f"{1 / PRIMARY_HORIZON:.2%} for windows that overlap as fully as this one)"
)
print(f"  autocorrelation at lag one {acf[0]:.3f}, at the horizon {acf[PRIMARY_HORIZON - 1]:.3f}")

# %% [markdown] tags=["results"]
# The monthly label's 418,362 development rows carry 20,017 effective observations, 4.78% of
# the row count against the 4.76% implied by a window this fully overlapped. Panel
# autocorrelation runs from 0.942 at lag one to -0.019 at the horizon.

# %% [markdown]
# ## G. Baseline floor
#
# One signal, against the primary label, on the development window: the raw momentum the
# hypothesis names, with no feature engineering. Measuring it first is what keeps a later
# improvement honest, because every engineered feature is then compared against a number that
# was fixed before the feature existed.
#
# The signal is scored the same way every feature will be. The IC is the cross-sectional rank
# correlation - the correlation between the order momentum puts the ETFs in on a date and the
# order their forward returns turn out in - computed within each date and then averaged over
# dates. The standard error is HAC-adjusted, because the IC series inherits the label's
# overlap and correlated dates are not independent evidence.

# %% [markdown]
# The baseline is measured on the same rows the features will be measured on:
# `03_financial_features` keeps a feature row only where the `(symbol, year)` pair appears in
# `eligibility.csv`, so the same semi-join runs here.

# %%
LOOKBACK = 126  # two quarters, the momentum window the hypothesis names

eligibility = pl.read_csv(CASE_DIR / "eligibility.csv").select(
    "symbol", pl.col("eligible_year").alias("_year")
)
baseline = (
    dev[PRIMARY_LABEL]
    .with_columns(
        (pl.col("close") / pl.col("close").shift(LOOKBACK).over("symbol") - 1).alias("momentum")
    )
    .drop_nulls("momentum")
    .with_columns(pl.col("timestamp").dt.year().alias("_year"))
    .join(eligibility, on=["symbol", "_year"], how="semi")
    .drop("_year")
)

# %% [markdown]
# How many ETFs are eligible on a date decides whether the date can be scored at all: a rank
# correlation across a handful of names is noise, so a date carrying fewer than the minimum
# below contributes nothing to the IC series. The minimum is set at half the median
# cross-section rather than as a fixed count, so it means the same thing on a universe of a
# different size. The figure shows how many ETFs the rule leaves to rank on each date, and
# which dates fall short.

# %%
eligible_per_date = baseline.group_by("timestamp").len().sort("timestamp")
min_obs = int(eligible_per_date["len"].median() // 2)
scored = eligible_per_date.filter(pl.col("len") >= min_obs)

dates = eligible_per_date["timestamp"].to_numpy()
counts = eligible_per_date["len"].to_numpy()

fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=FIGSIZE["single_wide"])
ax.step(dates, counts, where="post", color=COLORS["blue"], linewidth=2, label="eligible ETFs")
ax.axhline(
    min_obs, color=COLORS["copper"], linestyle="--", linewidth=1.2, label=f"minimum, {min_obs}"
)
ax.fill_between(
    dates, 0, min_obs, where=counts < min_obs, color=COLORS["copper"], alpha=0.3, step="post"
)
ax.set_ylim(0, None)
ax.set_xlabel("Date")
ax.set_ylabel("Eligible ETFs quoting")
# Computed rather than asserted: on the corrected eligibility screen no date falls short, and a
# subtitle promising a shaded region the figure does not draw is what this sentence used to be.
_short = int((counts < min_obs).sum())
add_message_title(
    ax,
    "The eligible cross-section more than doubles over the sample",
    subtitle=(
        f"{_short} dates fall below the minimum and contribute nothing to the IC series"
        if _short
        else "Every date carrying an eligible cross-section clears the minimum and is scored"
    ),
)
ax.legend(loc="lower right", frameon=False)
show_with_alt(
    fig,
    "A step line of eligible ETFs quoting on each date, rising from about 47 at the start of "
    "2007 to about 96 by 2018 and flat afterwards, against a dashed line at the minimum of 44. "
    "The line is above the minimum on every date it covers.",
)

print(
    f"{eligible_per_date.height:,} dates carry an eligible cross-section; {scored.height:,} of "
    f"them reach {min_obs} ETFs and are scored, from {scored['timestamp'].min()} to "
    f"{scored['timestamp'].max()}"
)

# %%
ic = cross_sectional_ic_series(
    baseline,
    baseline,
    pred_col="momentum",
    ret_col=PRIMARY_LABEL,
    date_col="timestamp",
    entity_col="symbol",
    min_obs=min_obs,
).sort("timestamp")  # HAC autocovariances are meaningless over a permutation of time
stats = compute_ic_hac_stats(ic, ic_col="ic", label_horizon=PRIMARY_HORIZON)

print(
    f"Baseline: {LOOKBACK}-session momentum vs {PRIMARY_LABEL}, min cross-section {min_obs}, "
    f"eligible panel {baseline.height:,} rows"
)
print(
    f"  mean IC {stats['mean_ic']:.4f} over the {stats['n_periods']:,} scored dates, "
    f"{ic.height - stats['n_periods']:,} of the {ic.height:,} left out as too thin"
)
print(
    f"  HAC t {stats['t_stat']:.2f} (Bartlett, {stats['effective_lags']} lags), "
    f"naive t {stats['naive_t_stat']:.2f}, p {stats['p_value']:.3f}"
)

# %% [markdown] tags=["results"]
# On the point-in-time eligible panel - the one `03_financial_features` builds features over
# and `05_evaluation` scores them on - raw momentum earns a mean IC of 0.0266 against the
# monthly label, averaged over the 4,257 dates that reach the 44-ETF minimum. Every date that
# carries an eligible cross-section now reaches it, so the series is scored from the first date
# momentum can be measured on. The naive standard error puts that IC at a t-statistic of 5.06;
# the HAC standard error puts it at 1.44, with a p-value of 0.150. A feature has to clear the
# second number, and this one does not: the gap between the two t-statistics is the overlap
# between consecutive monthly windows, not evidence.

# %% [markdown]
# ## H. Artifacts and the audit record
#
# Each label goes to `labels/<name>.parquet`, with a small JSON file beside it holding the
# label's *digest* - a hash of its contents - along with the row count, the key columns, and
# the digest of the price data it was built from. Two runs against different downloads write
# the same file name and different digests, so a stored label can be traced to its data.
#
# The cross-validation folds the modelling stages use are derived from this file's timeline,
# so which rows land here also sets where the folds fall.
#
# Section 7.2 closes a label definition with a record of what was decided: the anchor price,
# the horizon, when the outcome resolves, how much of the forward window consecutive rows
# share, and the base rate. The table below carries one row per label, and a last column
# naming the notebook that opens the file first - `05_evaluation` for the monthly label it
# scores features against, and the latent-factor notebooks for the weekly variant, which is
# the second label the models are trained on.

# %%
for label_name in LABEL_NAMES:
    record = write_artifact(
        labels_df.select(["timestamp", "symbol", label_name]).drop_nulls(),
        LABELS_DIR / f"{label_name}.parquet",
        keys=["timestamp", "symbol"],
        written_by="02_labels",
        inputs={"market_data": MARKET_DATA_DIGEST},
    )
    print(f"{label_name}.parquet: {record['n_rows']:,} rows, digest {record['digest']}")

# %%
audit = pl.DataFrame(
    [
        {
            "label": label_name,
            "anchor": "adjusted close at t",
            "horizon": f"{horizon} sessions",
            "resolves": f"close of session t+{horizon}",
            "overlap": f"{horizon - 1} sessions",
            "mean": round(dev[label_name][label_name].mean(), 4),
            "std": round(dev[label_name][label_name].std(), 4),
            "first reader": "05_evaluation" if label_name == PRIMARY_LABEL else "11a_pca",
        }
        for label_name, horizon in HORIZONS.items()
    ]
)
audit

# %% [markdown]
# ## What the labels hold, and what they owe
#
# Two questions about the files this stage just wrote, and neither is answerable from the rows
# that are there. The first is what is in each column - nulls, how much sits at exactly zero, how
# far the extreme values are from the body, whether anything is constant. A threshold crossed
# there asks for a sentence and settles nothing on its own.
#
# The second is coverage, and it needs a denominator that is not the labels themselves. **The
# reference is `prices`** - every session an ETF in the universe actually traded, which is the set
# a forward return could in principle have been computed on. Comparing a label to the other label
# would hide any session where both are absent together; comparing it to the price panel cannot.
#
# A percentage alone decides nothing, so each label declares where it is entitled to be short
# before the number is printed. A forward return owes no value in the last `horizon` sessions of a
# symbol's history, because the price that resolves it is past the end of the sample. That is
# counted per symbol, so a fund that lists late or delists early pays on its own dates. What the
# sign-off then answers for is the residual: keys missing inside a symbol's own span, where no
# horizon explains them.

# %%
expected_keys = prices.select(["symbol", "timestamp"]).unique()
print(
    f"price panel: {expected_keys.height:,} traded (symbol, session) keys across "
    f"{expected_keys['symbol'].n_unique()} funds and "
    f"{expected_keys['timestamp'].n_unique()} sessions\n"
)
for label_name in LABEL_NAMES:
    written = labels_df.select(["symbol", "timestamp", label_name]).drop_nulls()
    render_quality_report(
        quality_report(
            written,
            name=label_name,
            key_columns=["symbol", "timestamp"],
            expected=expected_keys,
            keys=["symbol", "timestamp"],
            entity="symbol",
            session="timestamp",
            expected_missing={
                "trailing": (
                    HORIZONS[label_name],
                    f"{HORIZONS[label_name]}-session forward window past the end of the sample",
                )
            },
        )
    )
    print()

# %% [markdown]
# ### Sign-off
#
# **Both labels are complete, and the shortfall is the horizon and nothing else.** The price
# panel offers 470,662 traded keys across 100 funds and 5,031 sessions. `fwd_ret_21d` reaches
# 99.55% of it and `fwd_ret_5d` 99.89%; every missing key sits after a fund's last session, every
# one of the 100 funds loses exactly its label's horizon - 21 sessions and 5 - and no fund spends
# more. **Nothing is missing that a mechanism does not account for, and nothing is emitted that
# the panel does not have.** The two percentages differ because a longer horizon costs
# proportionally more history at the end of the sample, which is the trade the horizon choice
# makes rather than a property of the data.
#
# **No column crossed a distribution threshold in either label.** Neither is constant, neither
# carries a non-finite value, and neither concentrates at zero - both are flagged unconditionally
# above and neither appears. A forward equity return at daily frequency is almost never exactly
# zero and carries a heavy tail, which is what these two show; nothing is winsorized here, and how
# a model handles the tail is a modelling choice made in the model stages.
#
# %% [markdown]
# ## Key takeaways
#
# 1. **Write the label as a formula over tradable prices:** which price at which time, to
#    which price at which time. Written that way it can be checked against the backtest that
#    has to fill it.
# 2. **Check the forward window with assertions.** Each property in Section D fails without
#    raising an error and leaves plausible numbers behind: a tail filled in where it should
#    be null, a window spanning a data gap, a label built across two symbols.
# 3. **Cut the development window on the label's endpoint.** A row observed before the holdout
#    but resolving inside it is a holdout row; a filter on the observation date leaves it in
#    the development set.
# 4. **Count the information the rows carry.** Overlapping windows make the row count a poor
#    guide to how much evidence there is; the effective count measures what is left. The purge
#    gap between folds is a separate quantity, set by the forward window: $N_{eff}$ moves with
#    sampling density and panel length, the gap stays at the horizon.
# 5. **Establish the floor before building features, on the same rows the features will be
#    scored on.** A baseline measured over a wider universe than the features it gates sets
#    the bar in the wrong place, and a date whose cross-section is too small to rank should
#    count in neither.
#
# **Known limitations.** Close-to-close is not the backtest's next-open execution and nothing
# here measures the gap; the universe is a fixed, backward-looking list carrying the
# survivorship bias `01_feasibility_analysis` documents; the baseline is one signal, one lookback.
#
# **Next**: `03_financial_features.py` builds the feature matrix over the same eligible panel,
# and `05_evaluation.py` is the first notebook to open these label files, scoring those
# features against the primary label.

```