Thursday Pre-Expiry Drift Short

Calendar seasonality strategy exploiting the tendency for crypto to sell off on Thursdays, refined with a structural explanation: Deribit weekly options expire Friday 08:00 UTC, and market makers delta-hedge by selling underlying ahead of expiry. This creates recurring selling pressure Thursday into early Friday. The strategy opens a short position on Thursday open (00:00 UTC) on BTC futures, but ONLY when conditions favor downside: (1) funding rate is positive (longs are crowded/paying shorts), indicating overleveraged long positioning that amplifies any sell pressure, and (2) price is below the 20-period 4H moving average (bearish context filter to avoid shorting into strong uptrends). Exits Friday 08:00 UTC (expiry) or on a 1.5% stop-loss. This combines the user's Thursday seasonality observation with options market structure mechanics and a leverage filter to create a repeatable, fee-viable edge. Holding ~24-32 hours means fee drag is minimal relative to expected move size of 0.5-2%.