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TRX Daily Laddered Long-Term Momentum Long with Regime Filter

Giả thuyết

A long-only single-instrument long-term momentum strategy on TRXUSDT perpetual futures using daily bars and OHLCV-only data. TRX (Tron) is structurally unique among the available crypto majors — its price action is dominated by stablecoin issuance flows on the Tron chain (USDT-Tron is the largest stablecoin venue by transfers globally), which makes its volatility profile materially lower than other L1s and its correlation to BTC noticeably weaker. This delivers genuine portfolio diversification: existing pipeline strategies cover BTC (negative-funding carry + spot drawdown DCA), ETH (golden cross), BNB (volume breakout + weekend reversion), SOL (EMA trend continuation), LINK (multi-week trend), DOT (EMA pullback), AVAX (calm-regime hold) — all symbols with high BTC-beta. TRX's lower-vol smoother uptrend character produces qualitatively different return distributions. The strategy uses LADDERED momentum confirmation (price above its 30-day-ago AND 60-day-ago levels, plus 30-day return > 8%) rather than channel breakouts — explicitly avoiding the channel-position failure pattern that has killed ~6 strategies — and pairs this with the proven daily / long-only / regime-filter / ATR-trailing-stop architecture that has produced Sharpe 4.04 (ETH Golden Cross), 3.33 (BTC Spot Drawdown), and 2.03 (BNB Volume Breakout) successes. Few signals per year (~5-12 entries), keeping fee drag minimal.

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