BTC COIN-M Inverse Perp Volatility-Regime-Gated Donchian Breakout, Long-Short (Single-Instrument BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM, 4h Bars, Trade Channel Breaks ONLY in Expanding-Volatility Regime — Flat in Chop, ATR-Stopped, Pure OHLCV, 3-Parameter)
Giả thuyết
A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument directional strategy on the Binance COIN-M inverse perpetual BTCUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM (BTC-margined, ~0.06% round-trip taker), 4-hour bars, pure OHLCV. It trades classic Donchian channel breakouts BUT gates every entry behind a volatility-regime filter: signals are taken only when the market is in an EXPANDING-volatility state, and the strategy sits flat during low-volatility chop. This is a re-attempt of a previously abandoned hypothesis whose abandon was an ENGINE BUG — a phantom COIN-M liquidation from margining a USDT-only account with qty×price maintenance margin — fixed 2026-07-24 (commit 59c8a73) to coin-funded, face-based margining; the abandoned code re-runs cleanly at 0.5× sizing, 254 trades, no liquidation, and QA credited the code. Mechanism per 4h bar: (1) compute an N-bar Donchian high/low channel (default N=30 ≈ 5 days); (2) compute a volatility-regime flag = ATR(14) is above its own rolling median over the last M bars (default M=60 ≈ 10 days) AND rising vs 6 bars ago; (3) go LONG on a close above the upper channel and SHORT on a close below the lower channel, ONLY if the vol-regime flag is TRUE — otherwise ignore all breakout signals and hold no position. It deliberately fills three under-represented buckets at once — BINANCE_CM venue (3.2% vs ≥5%), long_short direction (14.7% in a long-only-dominated book), and diversification away from the 71.5% USD-M concentration — on a low-fee venue where the fee math is forgiving. It is a single-leg CM strategy on BTC OHLCV only (L20-blessed: no multi-asset CM funding history needed), and it addresses the exact failure mode that killed the SOL 15m opening-range breakout (chop whipsaws, 28% win rate) by refusing to trade in the regime where breakouts fail-and-reverse. Against this session's trend-sleeve deaths (single-regime concentration on daily macro trend), its defense is the 4h frequency (254 trades → return stream not dominated by a handful of monster daily bars) plus a hard ATR stop and time cap so no single position rides a bull spike disproportionately.
Stratmill là công cụ nghiên cứu và giao dịch thử nghiệm (paper trading), không phải lời khuyên tài chính hay một nhà môi giới. Kết quả kiểm thử ngược và giao dịch thử nghiệm chỉ mang tính giả định. Giao dịch tiềm ẩn rủi ro thua lỗ.