DOT 4H Hull Moving Average Slope Trend-Following Long
Giả thuyết
A long-only single-instrument TREND-FOLLOWING strategy on DOTUSDT perpetual futures (Binance USD-M) using the Hull Moving Average (HMA) on 4-hour bars. CRITICAL DESIGN CHOICES locked in by the now-decisive feedback: (a) ZERO supplementary data dependency — 6 consecutive supp-data hypotheses failed (ETH liquidations, BTC taker_ratio, DOGE OI, BTC OI, XRP premium_index, AVAX taker_ratio); this strategy uses ONLY OHLCV. (b) NOT mean reversion (failed on alt perps), NOT contrarian short (failed on BTC funding). (c) 4H + Binance USD-M — the empirically proven verification combination. (d) NEW symbol — DOT (Polkadot) is not in the current portfolio of ADA/AVAX/BNB/BTC/ETH/LINK/LTC/NEAR/SOL. (e) NEW mechanism — Hull MA is structurally distinct from every other in-pipeline indicator: it's NOT a channel (Donchian/Keltner), NOT volume-based, NOT MACD, NOT Supertrend, NOT a basic EMA crossover. Hull MA (Hull 2005) uses a recursive weighted-moving-average construction that reduces lag without sacrificing smoothness — it tracks trend turns ~3-5 bars earlier than a same-period SMA/EMA while suppressing the same intrabar noise. (f) MAXIMALLY SIMPLE — just ONE meaningful parameter (HMA period = 20, canonical default) plus standard fixed exits (4% stop, 10-day time stop).
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