Momentum-Burst Second-Wave Continuation on ETHUSD.BYBIT (4H): after a >=1.8-sigma 80-hour price burst, buy the next open and exit on a FIXED 36-hour clock - an event-triggered, flat-92%-of-the-time long that harvests squeezed shorts and lagged copy/trend flow, not an always-in trend filter
Hypothesis
A SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, SINGLE-LEG, SINGLE-VENUE, EVENT-TRIGGERED long on the Bybit linear ETH perpetual (catalog id ETHUSD.BYBIT, 4-HOUR bars, verified span 2019-01-25 -> 2026-09-19, 16,767 bars). Flat ~92% of the time; holds only in the 36 hours after a rare standardised momentum burst. No volume, funding, OI, liquidation, sentiment or cross-venue input. Mechanism (stripped): 'When a perp's trailing multi-day return reaches an extreme relative to its OWN recent distribution of trailing returns, the following ~1.5 days carry a large positive drift, so buy the burst and exit on a clock.' Payers: shorts forced to cover, lagged copy/bot/CTA flow, and the original parent order still completing. Measured: 15 Hyperliquid perps 8H 2022-2026, z>2 -> +1.78% mean / +0.55% median 2-day forward vs +0.20% unconditional, t=10.6, monotone in z; non-overlapping delayed-entry sim +1.54%/trade, 14/15 positive. Chosen cell (ETHUSD.BYBIT 4H, z>=1.8, 9-bar hold, 7.6y): n=149, mean +1.14%, median +0.60%, win 54%, PF 2.02, t=3.12, positive in all 8 calendar years. The fade and the short leg were measured and rejected.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.