Skip to content

View translation

LTC Binance USD-M Trend-Strength-Gated Directional Trend — Long-Short Dual-EMA Only When ADX Confirms a Strong Trend, Size Scaled by Trend Strength, ATR Trailing Exit (Single-Bar 4H, 3-Parameter)

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, pure-price DIRECTIONAL trend follower on LTCUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual), 4H single-bar construction, whose distinguishing mechanism is an explicit TREND-STRENGTH GATE (ADX) that keeps the book FLAT unless a statistically strong trend is actually present — a deliberate change from the always-on EMA-confluence / regression-slope / pullback variants I have already queued (BTC/ETH/ADA/BNB/XRP/DOGE). The recurring non-outlier failure across my trail is 'no established edge' / whipsaw fee-bleed: the trend signal is right in strong trends but bleeds commissions churning in chop. The ADX gate attacks that directly — it only spends the ~0.10% round-trip when directional strength is high, and it scales position size by trend strength, so capital concentrates in the few genuinely strong LTC trends and stands aside in the range-bound majority. Two prior conclusions are respected: (1) Hyperliquid is now PROVEN unusable for trend significance (even 12H HL data starts 2023-01, ~3.4y single regime — every HL port died 'unestablished edge'), so this uses Binance with ~5–6y of multi-regime LTC history; (2) LTC is chosen as a LOW-KURTOSIS major (steady, non-memecoin distribution) whose edge, when present, is distributed rather than one-day-dominated — the property that passes the deflated-Sharpe / outlier gates that killed the Donchian breakouts. NOT a mean-reversion fade (L53), NOT a squeeze breakout (L54), NOT a channel breakout (outlier class), NOT a cross-sectional basket (L52), NOT a market-neutral ratio (near-zero edge), NOT a NON-PRICE-feed gate (ADX is 100% price-derived, so NOT L46), NOT options/COIN-M (L50/L51). Fills the long-short gap (13.6% vs 86% long-only) with a fresh name and a new gating mechanism. Risk profile: ~1.5% equity risk/trade via ATR stop; size = base_risk * (ADX/ADX_ref) vol-scaled by ATR, hard-capped at 25% of equity*leverage; 2x leverage cap (reads self.config.leverage). Exactly 3 tunable parameters (slow/fast EMA ratio, ADX threshold, ATR trailing multiple); fast EMA and ADX lookback fixed at standard values to resist best-of-N overfit.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.