ATOM 4H Supertrend Trend-Following Long (10, 3.0)
Hypothesis
A long-only single-instrument PATH-DEPENDENT TREND-FOLLOWING strategy on ATOMUSDT perpetual futures (Binance USD-M) using canonical Supertrend (10, 3.0) on 4-hour bars. RATIONALE: this session has now produced ONE approved strategy (DOT Supertrend, Sharpe +1.17, PF 1.21, positive 2025/2026) and 8+ abandonments, with the abandonments forming a tight cluster around three failure modes: (1) supp-data hypotheses with infrastructure coverage gaps (6 strikes), (2) Tier-2 channel/band breakouts that regime-decayed in 2025+ (Donchian/Keltner/WRB, 3 strikes), and (3) Tier-3 oscillator entries that fail regardless of regime (MACD/HMA/Aroon, 3 strikes). The empirical session-wide finding is decisive: 'the indicator choice — not the framing, parameter count, or symbol — accounts for the entire Sharpe gap.' Replicating the validated Supertrend mechanism on additional liquid alt-perps is the highest-confidence available path. ATOM (Cosmos) is the chosen symbol: (a) Binance USD-M perp data since August 2020 (4.7+ years coverage, well above the 2-year minimum from UNI failure feedback), (b) NOT in current portfolio, (c) sector-distinct from DOT/AVAX/MATIC/XRP already covered by Tier 1 — Cosmos is the IBC interchain protocol, a different L0/L1 design philosophy than Polkadot's parachain model, Avalanche's subnets, Polygon's L2, or XRP's payment rails. (d) MAXIMALLY SIMPLE — exact same canonical Supertrend(10, 3.0) parameters as the approved DOT strategy. (e) ZERO supplementary data dependency. (f) NOT mean-reversion, NOT contrarian short, NOT oscillator entry, NOT channel/band breakout — all failure classes explicitly avoided.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.