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AVAX 4H RSI(2) Pullback in Uptrend

Hypothesis

A long-only single-instrument mean-reversion strategy on AVAXUSDT perpetual futures using 4-hour bars. Implements the classic Connors RSI(2) extreme-oversold pullback signal, gated by a long-term trend filter (50-bar SMA). The hypothesis: in established crypto uptrends, sharp short-term pullbacks (RSI(2) below 10) represent profit-taking and weak-hand capitulation rather than trend reversal, and revert to the mean within 1-2 trading days. The 50-SMA trend filter eliminates signals during structural downtrends where mean reversion fails. This is a deliberately minimal strategy — only OHLCV data, only 3 indicators (RSI, SMA, ATR), only 4 parameters — designed to pass verification quickly and be easy to validate. Average expected trade: +2.5% over 8-32 hours, well above the 0.15% fee threshold.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.