Skip to content

View translation

LINK Hyperliquid Daily Deep-Drawdown Accumulation Long with 200-SMA Bull Regime Filter

Hypothesis

A long-only single-instrument LONG-TERM CONTRARIAN ACCUMULATION strategy on LINK perpetual futures on the HYPERLIQUID exchange (DEX-based perp protocol) using daily bars and OHLCV-only data, with a 200-SMA structural trend filter. This proposal targets two portfolio gaps: (1) LINK is the MOST UNDERUTILIZED asset in the portfolio (only LinkDailyMultiWeekTrendContinuationLong remains — 1 strategy vs 2-3 for every other tracked asset); (2) the Binance LINK Daily Drawdown Accumulation strategy I previously proposed FAILED only on Layer 3 INFRASTRUCTURE (auditor heartbeat), not on mechanism — Hyperliquid uses a separate data-fetching path (HyperliquidCollector class) which may BYPASS the Binance auditor failure entirely. CRITICAL clarification: this is NOT cross-asset architecture replication (the analyst's prior auto-replication warnings) — it's the SAME asset (LINK) and SAME mechanism (drawdown accumulation) on a DIFFERENT VENUE (Hyperliquid vs Binance). Cross-venue duplication is structurally different: the underlying LINK spot price drives both venues, but Hyperliquid's microstructure (DEX-driven flow, on-chain settlement, no CEX market makers) produces meaningfully different liquidation cascades and recovery dynamics. The mechanism is well-suited to LINK regardless of venue: LINK has documented multi-cycle drawdown-and-recovery behavior (2018 -93%, 2019 -65%, 2022 -78%, 2023 -50%), each followed by major recoveries (often 200%+). When LINK is more than 25% below its 90-day high while the 200-day SMA is still rising, this typically reflects a transient sentiment/leverage-driven correction rather than a structural breakdown. The 200-SMA filter empirically distinguishes 'cyclic correction within ongoing uptrend' (high recovery probability) from 'terminal trend-break decay' (low recovery probability). Hyperliquid lower fees (~0.09% RT vs Binance 0.10%) provide marginal but real edge — and with target moves of 25-60% per trade, fee impact is negligible regardless. Only 4 explicit parameters (drawdown lookback days, drawdown threshold %, regime SMA period, hard stop pct) — minimum-parameter sparse-trigger strategy.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.