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BTC Weekly Delta-Hedged Short Strangle on Deribit When 7D IV > 7D RV by 8+ Vol Points

Hypothesis

A systematic short-volatility options strategy on Deribit BTC weekly options, delta-hedged via Binance BTCUSDT perpetual futures. Every Friday 08:00 UTC (Deribit's standard weekly-options rotation), the strategy checks the implied volatility on the new weekly ATM options vs trailing 7-day realized volatility. When IV exceeds RV by ≥ 8 vol points (a documented persistent volatility risk premium in crypto options), the strategy SELLS a strangle: short 1 OTM call (~3% above spot) AND short 1 OTM put (~3% below spot) on the same weekly expiry. Net delta near zero at entry. Daily 08:00 UTC re-hedge: trade the BTC perp to flatten accumulated gamma-induced delta as spot moves. Held to expiry (max 7 days) unless emergency stop fires. This fills FOUR critical under-represented buckets: options venue (0% → first slot toward 15% target), cross-venue (1.8% → toward 15%, since options leg is DERIBIT and hedge leg is BINANCE), long-short direction (13.9% → toward 45%, this is short-vol + delta-neutral), and mid-term horizon. Mechanism is COMPLETELY different from every failure this session — does not depend on BTC price patterns, does not rely on directional forecasts, does not have enough parameters for the optimizer to curve-fit. Vol risk premium is a documented academic phenomenon (Bakshi-Kapadia 2003 in equity options; Alexander+ 2020 in crypto) that compensates option sellers for taking convexity risk. Position sizing: 5% of equity AT RISK per strangle (defined as 50% loss of total premium), which translates to ~20% of equity in option-leg notional given typical 25% premium ratios. Risk per trade: 5% of equity capped by the explicit stop-loss rule.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.