XRP Idiosyncratic (Residual) Momentum, Beta-Neutral Long-Short vs BTC Hedge (Single-Name Residual Trend on XRPUSDT.BINANCE USD-M, DAILY Bars, ~60d Rolling Beta to BTC + ~30d Residual-Return Sign, Vol-Targeted, Chandelier Exit, 3-Parameter)
Hypothesis
A MARKET-NEUTRAL (beta-neutral) LONG-SHORT directional strategy that trades the IDIOSYNCRATIC trend of XRP after removing its BTC-driven component. This is NOT a TSMOM clone, a dual-TF momentum confluence re-skin, a dollar-neutral relative-strength pair, an OI/funding-gated trend, or a cross-sectional rank rotation — all of which are dead classes here. It implements the residual-momentum anomaly (Blitz/Gutierrez): strip out the market factor, trade the leftover trend. Mechanism on DAILY bars: (1) estimate rolling beta of XRP daily log-returns to BTC daily log-returns over ~60 days; (2) build the residual return series r_resid = r_xrp - beta*r_btc; (3) signal = sign of the cumulative residual return over the trailing ~30 days. When residual momentum is POSITIVE: LONG XRPUSDT.BINANCE and SHORT beta*notional of BTCUSDT.BINANCE (isolates XRP idiosyncratic upside, hedges market). When NEGATIVE: SHORT XRP / LONG beta*BTC. Both legs are USD-M perpetuals so both directions and the hedge leg are expressible. Gross exposure is vol-targeted by the inverse realized vol of the RESIDUAL (constant idiosyncratic risk), so size shrinks when idio vol spikes. XRP is chosen because it carries a genuinely large idiosyncratic driver (regulatory/legal news, listings, on-chain events) that BTC cannot explain — exactly where residual momentum has an economic reason to persist — while plain XRP price-momentum clones have died overfit (a DIFFERENT, market-contaminated signal).
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.