Volatility-Compression Expansion Breakout, Single-Instrument Long-Short (BTCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M, 1H Bars — Trade the Directional Expansion ONLY After a Genuine Multi-Week Volatility SQUEEZE (Coiled Range at a Realized-Vol Extreme Low); Enter on the First Decisive Range Break, Cut False Breaks Fast, Ride the Expansion with an ATR Trailing Stop, 3-Parameter)
Hypothesis
A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, SINGLE-VENUE volatility-regime strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual (~0.10% RT taker), on 1H bars. It is a DIFFERENT family from the factory's trend-confluence survivor (which does not transfer off BTC — the SOL clone overfit) and from every falsified positioning/flow and reversal family: the signal is the VOLATILITY REGIME, not price direction per se and not any leverage/flow feed. The mechanism is the well-documented volatility cycle: realized volatility mean-reverts, so an unusually TIGHT, coiled range (realized vol at a multi-week extreme low = a 'squeeze') is mechanically followed by an expansion, and the expansion's initial break tends to run because it releases pent-up order flow (stops and breakout entries stacked at the range edges). The strategy does nothing during normal volatility and acts ONLY when a genuine multi-week compression is present, then trades the FIRST decisive break of the compression range in whichever direction it breaks (long or short), cutting false breaks fast and riding true expansions with an ATR trailing stop. BTC is chosen because it is the highest-survival instrument in this factory (2% vs ~1% elsewhere), has the cleanest, most liquid squeezes, and produces expansion moves of 1-3% that clear the fee floor with margin. Firing only on rare true squeezes keeps turnover low despite the shorter timeframe. Deliberately 3 parameters to resist the overfitting that is the factory's #1 killer. It also targets the under-represented short horizon bucket (9.2% vs ≥10%).
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.