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Persistent-Deep-Negative-Funding Long Carry Basket, Single-Leg Long-Only (BINANCE USD-M, 8 Liquid Perps, Go Long a Name ONLY When Its 8h Funding Has Been Deeply Negative for ≥3 CONSECUTIVE Stamps — Sustained Short-Crowding = Carry + Squeeze-Bounce — SINGLE-LEG So One Fee Not Two, Funding-Feed Dependent, Fee-Arithmetic Stated, 2-Parameter)

Hypothesis

A LONG-ONLY, single-leg, funding-driven carry basket that respects the three lessons that just narrowed the viable design space to almost nothing: L30 (pure-OHLCV trend/momentum/reversion = 0/213, so a genuine NON-PRICE data dependency is required — this uses the FUNDING feed, the only deep/backfilled non-price series, NOT the shallow OI/taker/liquidation metrics feeds that data-walled prior attempts), L29 (no options), and L28 (delta-neutral TWO-leg carry fee-dies — so this is SINGLE-LEG, paying one round trip, and states the fee arithmetic). It is the persistence-gated evolution of the deployed negative-funding carry basket (Sharpe 1.97): instead of entering on an INSTANTANEOUS negative funding print, it requires funding to have been deeply negative for ≥3 CONSECUTIVE 8h stamps (24h of sustained short-crowding) before going long a name. That persistence filter is the distinct mechanism — it removes single-print noise entries, confirms a genuine crowded-short/squeeze setup, and guarantees the position is opened into SUSTAINED carry rather than a fleeting blip. FEE ARITHMETIC (per L28): entry requires funding ≤ −0.03%/8h persistent = −0.09%/day of carry COLLECTED while long (shorts pay longs); held ≥3 days that is ≥27bps of carry vs a single-leg USD-M round trip of ~0.09% (9bps) — a ~3× margin BEFORE the contrarian price bounce that typically follows crowded-short capitulation. Universe is 8 deep-history liquid USD-M perps (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, LINK, AVAX, LTC), each gated INDEPENDENTLY, equal-weight, conservatively sized. NOT a two-leg spot-perp carry (single-leg), NOT a funding RANK rotation (independent per-name level+persistence gate, no cross-sectional sort → not the dead top-K funding rotation), NOT pure-OHLCV, NOT options. 2 core parameters (funding magnitude threshold, consecutive-stamp count).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.