Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
682 documents
This tutorial introduces FMZ Quant's Blockly visual programming environment through a simple moving-average strategy. It opens a long position when flat and the close is above a 50-period average, opens short when flat and below it, and closes each position…
The article argues that identifying market turning points consistently is difficult and that missing a small number of the strongest up days can sharply reduce long-term returns. It contrasts steady index exposure with hypothetical timing outcomes in the US…
This document is a broad glossary of machine learning and data mining terms, organized by task. It surveys sampling methods, clustering, classification and regression, model evaluation, probabilistic graphical models, neural networks, deep learning,…
This essay draws on Nassim Taleb’s The Fool’s Random Walk to argue that decisions should account for chance, uncertainty, and the role of luck in apparent success. For traders, its central distinction is between counting probabilities and gambling on…
This Python-style example outlines a state-based trading loop driven by fast and slow exponential moving average crossovers. While flat, it checks an entry crossover and opens a long position for an upward cross or a short position for a downward cross,…
This post describes a live trading issue in a Binance BTC/USDT futures bot that uses two configurable EMAs to generate entries. The code enters long when the faster EMA crosses above the slower one and short when it crosses below, checking the second- and…
This tutorial describes a futures order-following bot that copies changes in a reference account’s long and short positions to additional accounts. It reads the reference account’s positions, tracks long and short quantities separately, and sends…
This essay argues that trend following depends on choosing operational rules rather than discovering one universally correct definition of trend. It gives moving-average alignment and the Turtle system’s breakout rule—an upward break above a 20-day high,…
This tutorial explains how to configure a trading platform’s Mail function to send email alerts, using an account balance change notification as its example. It walks through the SMTP server, sender address, generated SMTP credential, recipient, subject, and…
This article explains a method for increasing the frequency of observed commodity-futures market updates by subscribing to the same contract through multiple futures-company connections. Its premise is that each feed can deliver updates at different times…
This essay outlines common reasons a promising backtest may fail in live trading. It recommends checking calculations when returns look implausibly strong, including comparing the account’s initial and current states to derive profit and loss. It also warns…
The document argues that traders should treat stop losses as a planned risk-control rule rather than an emotional response to a losing position. It uses the “Alligator Principle” to illustrate why delaying an exit after recognizing a trade is wrong can…
The document presents a TradingView Pine strategy that combines a Vegas-style EMA filter with ADX and candle conditions. It enters long or short positions when the corresponding filter conditions are met, the ADX exceeds a threshold, and the candle condition…
The author frames futures prices through two connected forces: the underlying spot market and the behavior of market participants. Spot supply and demand are proposed as the main influence on longer-term direction, while collective impulses, herding, fear,…
This overview introduces regression as a way to model relationships between predictors and outcomes, then compares seven techniques: linear, logistic, polynomial, stepwise, ridge, lasso, and ElasticNet regression. It describes common use cases and…
A wedge forms when successive price swings fit between converging trendlines that slope upward or downward. The article describes wedges as potential reversal patterns: a falling wedge may break upward, while a rising wedge may break downward. Traders can…
This guide organizes U.S. equity research inputs into five source groups: company filings, investor relations materials, government macroeconomic releases, trading calendars and halt notices, and public checks on brokers or advisers. It treats regulatory…
The article explains trading as the transfer of risk between participants. It distinguishes investors, who buy underlying businesses or assets for long-term value, from traders who trade financial contracts and focus on price. It describes hedging as a way…
This beginner-oriented guide distinguishes algorithmic trading from quantitative, automated, and high-frequency trading. It describes algorithmic trading as expressing a trading idea in an algorithm that can be tested and then executed manually or…
This Pine Script example combines Bollinger Band %B signals with a martingale-style position increase. It calculates %B from a moving average and standard deviation bands, enters long when %B crosses above zero, and enters short when it crosses below one.…
This short note raises a basic question about what a probability estimated by logistic regression represents. It contrasts interpreting a prediction as the chance that one particular person succeeds with interpreting it as the expected success rate among…
This article explains triangular arbitrage using three currencies and temporarily inconsistent exchange rates. It first illustrates how to compare a directly quoted cross rate with a synthetic rate derived through two other currency pairs. If the three…
This article explains how commissions, fees, taxes, slippage, latency, spreads, liquidity, and market impact can alter a strategy’s backtest results. It contrasts fixed transaction-cost assumptions with linear, piecewise linear, and quadratic models. Fixed…
This article explains why parameter optimization should favor a broad, stable region of good performance over a narrow peak. A broad region suggests the model can tolerate small parameter changes; a sharp isolated peak may reflect a fit to quirks in…