Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
337 documents
This market commentary reviews crypto volatility conditions and options positioning in September 2023. It notes subdued equity volatility and low realized volatility in crypto, while describing rising put-wing implied volatility for a near-term Bitcoin…
This market commentary connects Federal Reserve expectations and stablecoin policy news with volatility in crypto and crypto-linked equities. It focuses on Circle’s post-IPO shares, noting a sharp rise in implied volatility and short-dated call skew, then…
The recap compares Bitcoin and Ethereum options markets through realized and implied volatility, term structures, skew, and relative gamma pricing. It describes BTC shifting into contango as front-end implied volatility falls more sharply than longer-dated…
The newsletter assesses a sharp rise in Bitcoin volatility alongside macroeconomic catalysts and crypto market positioning. It uses options implied volatility and term-structure richness as indicators of stress, noting that a high backwardation reading has…
This weekly note reviews Bitcoin and Ether options conditions around March 5, 2023. It links falling spot prices to softening implied volatility, describes a contango term structure, and points to the largest roll-down between short dated maturities and the…
This midweek derivatives recap describes a subdued Bitcoin market and summarizes changes in implied and realized volatility, term structure, skew, options activity, and dealer gamma. It reports that Bitcoin’s realized volatility fell by about 10 points while…
The newsletter links weaker U.S. payroll data and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts with diverging moves in gold and crypto. It interprets low VIX readings, short VIX futures positioning, and differences between September and October VIX futures as…
Gamma exposure (GEX) describes how an option’s delta changes as the underlying asset moves. The document explains why this matters in crypto options: as delta shifts, market makers may adjust their hedges, creating flows that can affect volatility and…
This market recap describes a week of softer realized and implied volatility in Bitcoin and Ether options as spot prices drifted within recent ranges without a major macro catalyst. It notes that Bitcoin’s term structure shifted lower, especially at the…
This podcast account follows Michael Dunn’s move from fixed-income and equity trading into crypto derivatives and Bitnomial’s effort to build a regulated U.S. exchange and clearing infrastructure. It describes exchange components such as matching engines,…
This weekly market recap reviews Bitcoin and Ether derivatives conditions, including realized volatility, implied-volatility term structure, skew, option flows, and dealer gamma. It describes weak spot prices alongside subdued realized volatility, while…
This market recap describes how a sharp crypto decline affected BTC and ETH options. It reports rising realized volatility, a larger response in short-dated implied volatility than in longer maturities, and an inverted term structure after spot fell. The…
This Q2 2023 report teaser examines Bitcoin and Ethereum options activity, volatility behavior, and the DVOL index. It describes a rules-based method for estimating trade aggressor direction using weighted heuristics, then discusses differences in spot and…
This market note reviews Bitcoin and Ether options around a period of banking stress and major US economic releases. It describes Bitcoin’s term structure moving into backwardation, with near-dated implied volatility elevated relative to longer maturities,…
This market commentary examines crypto options positioning in December 2023 as traders anticipated a US spot Bitcoin ETF decision. It discusses a sharp Bitcoin pullback and a rise in realized volatility, alongside a decline in short-dated implied volatility…
This market commentary links changing Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations with risk-asset performance, then examines relative strength and options conditions in Bitcoin and Ether. It discusses how realized volatility and the ETH/BTC ratio may reflect…
This market commentary interprets crypto option-implied distributions and volatility around the 2024 US election. It uses calibrated BTC options distributions to compare the market-implied chance of prices above $72,000 at the November 8 and December 27…
This mid-week recap summarizes derivatives conditions in Bitcoin and Ether as of April 21, 2023. It reports stable Bitcoin 10-day realized volatility in the low 30s while attention shifted toward Ether, and describes term structures for both assets as moving…
This guide explains how to run a Python trading strategy backtest with LumiBot, choose a historical data provider, configure dates and sources, and review generated output. It describes ThetaData, Yahoo Finance, Polygon, custom Pandas data, and Polymarket…
The document reviews crypto market conditions ahead of the Bitcoin halving and discusses how macroeconomic pressure may affect sentiment and options pricing. It points to higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar as headwinds while noting that implied…
The webinar summary addresses how to estimate option values in newer crypto markets where liquid options data may be sparse or absent. It describes Amberdata’s approach as using liquid equity options as a reference for generating implied volatility surfaces,…
This podcast recap discusses Bitcoin’s volatility and derivatives market conditions around a sharp price decline and subsequent stabilization. It introduces implied volatility and volatility compression, and describes a reported contrast between elevated…
This market commentary interprets crypto options conditions ahead of the U.S. election, focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum realized volatility, implied volatility, skew, term structure, and relative performance. It describes realized volatility as stable while…
This market commentary reviews Bitcoin and Ethereum options conditions, covering realized and implied volatility, carry, skew term structures, and relative value. It reports that realized volatility rose, implied volatility did not keep pace in Bitcoin as…