Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
166 documents
The article presents five principles for short-term stock trading: prominent stocks may attract liquidity despite looking expensive; near-term prices reflect the balance of buying and selling shaped by expectations and sentiment; traders should seek gaps…
This research outline proposes allocating among equity industries by tracking the behavior of different market participants. It motivates industry rotation with the observation that returns can diverge substantially across sectors and styles, so broad asset…
The document describes a commodity futures strategy that ranks 28 markets by changes in Twitter-derived sentiment. It calculates daily sentiment from keyword-matched posts using a financial sentiment dictionary, then forms equal-weighted long and short…
The document summarizes CapTE, a model for predicting stock movements from social media text. A Transformer encoder extracts semantic features from posts, while a capsule network is used to represent structural relationships in the text. The approach is…
This document summarizes a research approach that uses Google Trends search activity to inform equity portfolio weights. It treats search volume as a measure of how popular a stock is and assumes that popularity is related to risk. The portfolio therefore…
The document summarizes a 2020 study on whether investor attention measured through Baidu search activity can help forecast volatility in Chinese equities. The researchers compare a baseline GARCH model with an expanded version that includes search volumes…
This research summary examines how sell-side analyst reports may inform stock selection. It argues that report counts and recommendation strength alone provide limited differentiation, while target-price upside and changes in analyst views may be more…
This research summary describes a method for predicting which stocks will attract institutional attention when other firms make scheduled announcements or when macroeconomic news arrives. It measures past attention spikes using news searches and reading…
This Chinese-language conference excerpt introduces how artificial intelligence is being adopted by global asset managers. It frames technology as one response to falling margins per unit of managed assets, alongside efforts to grow assets under management.…
This Chinese-language post describes a stock selection screen combining three conditions: RSI below 65, the day’s volume above 1.05 times the prior day’s volume, and the absolute move from the previous close to the opening price below 6%. It frames the…
This weekly market note links macro conditions, Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows, spot momentum, and options positioning. It reports that diminishing outflows from one fund and inflows to other funds accompanied a rise in Bitcoin, and discusses the…
This study examines whether investors chasing Morningstar mutual fund ratings can move stock prices through fund flows. Before Morningstar’s June 2002 methodology change, ratings were closely tied to broad fund performance and therefore favored some…
This market-monitoring report summarizes Chinese trading conditions for July 13, 2022. It reviews broad index and sector performance, then gauges equity sentiment using limit-up and limit-down counts, next-day returns for stocks that had hit either limit,…
The article evaluates whether a stock’s overnight return, measured from the prior close to the next open, can proxy for firm-level investor sentiment. The rationale is that retail investors may place orders outside regular market hours, concentrating demand…
This research roundup summarizes three studies. The first examines whether unexpected US monetary policy announcements affected hedge fund alpha after the financial crisis, using event studies, structural-break tests, and Markov-switching models. It reports…
This brief market note reviews Chinese 50ETF options conditions for the week ending November 2. It reports that the ETF closed at 2.594 after gaining 3.1% for the week, while the trading-value put-call ratio fell from 0.754 on October 26 to 0.575. The note…
The article summarizes research using Forcerank, a platform where participants rank stocks by expected performance over roughly a week. Regressions of consensus ranks on past returns show that participants extrapolate recent performance, with more weight on…
This research summary examines whether hedge funds’ exposure to changes in investor sentiment predicts subsequent performance. It estimates each fund’s sentiment beta with a rolling 36-month window, forms equal-weighted portfolios by beta, and uses…
This post summarizes a 2017 J.P. Morgan report on using large and alternative datasets in investment research. It groups alternative data into information generated by individuals, business processes, and sensors, with examples such as social media,…
This document describes a Chinese equity screening rule that combines a price-movement threshold, an outstanding convertible-bond name field, and an indicator of recent large-investor activity. It initially presents yesterday’s control by major funds as a…
The article examines whether the rise of the Chinese A-share market from 3,000 to 4,000 points marks a peak or the beginning of a larger bull market. It attributes the 2025 advance mainly to technology stocks and proposes looking beyond price charts to…
This study examines whether sell-side analysts use peer forecasts on other companies in their own coverage portfolios to inform estimates for a target company. Using quarterly earnings forecasts and actual results, it measures optimism through forecast…
This forum post argues that AI should be treated as a tool rather than an autonomous source of trading intelligence. It emphasizes the difficulty of learning financial patterns from noisy data, the challenge of achieving stable profits even with…
This weekly report assesses Chinese equity-market sentiment after a sharp March decline and a subsequent rebound. Its composite sentiment score rose from 38 to 51, while the authors judged that near-term further weakness had become less likely, despite…