Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
1,232 documents
This market commentary links a hawkish shift in central bank guidance to lower crypto volatility and describes a long-volatility view, with a preference for longer-dated Ether call options. It highlights a mismatch between the Fed’s projected rates and the…
This essay explains how prediction markets translate traders’ beliefs about real-world events into contract prices, and why those prices can aggregate dispersed information. It distinguishes the value of predictions to observers from the incentives that…
This September 2023 review compares Bitcoin and Ether implied and realised volatility, their volatility premia, and the shape of their options smiles. It reports that ATM implied volatility stayed within a range while realised volatility fell to historically…
The article reviews Bitcoin and Ethereum market conditions and options positioning, arguing that subdued realized volatility and median volatility carry can support gamma selling while markets remain range bound. It describes falling front-end implied…
The article explains how a short squeeze develops and why it creates unusual risks for equity options market makers. Short sellers may be forced to buy shares to meet margin requirements or return recalled stock, adding buying pressure as prices rise. Market…
This analysis combines Bitcoin address activity, holder duration, cross-market correlations, spot order flow, and derivatives open interest to describe conditions during a volatile period. It treats addresses with balances as an imperfect proxy for network…
This podcast description outlines a discussion of a Bitcoin price decline and the factors that may have influenced it. The speakers consider investor hedging, interest-rate markets, and the wider macroeconomic setting, framing these as inputs to both…
The commentary reviews an unusually volatile week in crypto, contrasting Bitcoin’s relatively small net decline after a wide trading range with larger losses among Ether and many altcoins. It connects altcoin weakness to the year’s concentration of…
This analysis examines Bitcoin options metrics during a period when spot traded mostly between $38,000 and $48,000 in 2022. It compares implied volatility with realised volatility and describes how their relationship changed: implied volatility fell toward…
This weekly crypto derivatives recap compares BTC and ETH conditions using implied volatility, option skew, and a Risk Appetite Index. BTC is described as consolidating above $80,000 while its options skew remains short of a bullish tilt. Seven-day BTC…
This note explains a defined-risk bullish BTC options trade for a market in which a short-term low may have formed. A bull call spread buys a call at a lower strike and sells a call at a higher strike, using the same underlying and expiration. The example…
This trade note proposes a BTC call ratio spread based on a bullish market view and the possibility of a rally toward resistance near $74,000. The structure buys one May 31 call at a $72,000 strike and sells two calls at $74,000, for a stated net debit of…
This weekly BTC and ETH derivatives report surveys futures-implied spot yields, perpetual swap funding, at-the-money implied volatility, volatility surfaces, and 25-delta put-call skew. It reports that futures yields remained positive but moved toward zero,…
The commentary interprets recent BTC options positioning as a shift from heavy call overwriting toward persistent put demand. It describes a large call seller becoming less visible, while other participants continued to sell calls on short rallies or use…
This weekly report reviews BTC and ETH derivatives using at-the-money implied volatility, realized volatility, 25-delta risk reversals, and fitted volatility surfaces. It describes a summer lull in volatility, with short-dated BTC implied volatility reaching…
The document applies the bus factor—the number of contributors whose loss could stall a project—to cryptocurrency investing. It argues that open-source practices such as public discussion, documentation, and broad contribution can build redundancy, while…
This weekly recap summarizes BTC and ETH derivatives conditions, combining perpetual swap funding, futures implied yields, and options indicators. It describes BTC and ETH spot prices as rangebound for the week after a large liquidation earlier in the month,…
This lesson explains how to calculate profit and loss for BTC options on Deribit, with the same approach stated to apply to ETH. For a position closed before expiry, subtract the opening premium from the closing trade price; the option’s strike and…
The document outlines a long call butterfly on Bitcoin for traders expecting a modest short-term rise. The structure buys one call at a lower strike, sells two calls at the middle strike, and buys one call at a higher strike. In the cited example, the…
This market commentary reviews conditions in early 2023 across macro markets, crypto lending, derivatives, options flows, and DeFi. It links the FTX and BlockFi failures to a sharp slowdown in unsecured lending, then considers how rising traditional interest…
This podcast description outlines a discussion of rising crypto prices ahead of the April Bitcoin halving. The speakers consider profit-taking risk, persistent demand and supply dynamics, continued corporate BTC purchases, possible additions of Bitcoin to…
This market commentary examines crypto price resilience, volatility, and options positioning during a period of global uncertainty. It reports Bitcoin holding near $74,000 while equities and gold struggled, citing stablecoin growth, ETF inflows,…
This weekly recap describes how military escalation involving Iran, Israel, and the United States affected BTC and ETH spot prices and derivatives positioning. The report tracks implied volatility term structures, perpetual funding, futures-implied yields,…
This educational article introduces calls, puts, option premiums, and implied volatility before outlining a butterfly strategy for a market expected to consolidate. Its example assumes BTC remains within a stated price channel through expiration, with a…