Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
1,232 documents
This weekly flow note interprets Bitcoin options activity around US inflation data and a market rally. It describes traders selling exposure in near-dated calls, then shifting from a February ratio strangle into a larger March ratio strangle. The described…
This lesson explains cryptocurrency call options using Bitcoin examples. It defines the underlying, option type, expiry, strike, and premium, then describes calls as rights to buy at the strike. The examples focus on European-style, cash-settled options:…
This weekly market review compares Bitcoin and Ether derivatives conditions through futures yields, perpetual swap funding, implied volatility, and options smile skew. It describes a divergence between the two assets: Ether options carried a volatility…
This note presents a bullish Bitcoin options trade for a market where a rally is possible but resistance near $66,000 may limit gains. It pairs one July 12 call at a $64,000 strike with two calls at $66,000, collecting premium on the higher-strike options to…
This market note reviews Bitcoin options positioning ahead of FOMC and CPI announcements. It describes quiet overall flows alongside gradual accumulation of longer-dated downside puts, sales of March calls, and mixed December activity near the money. The…
This podcast episode description frames a discussion of Bitcoin’s behavior during a tariff-driven equity selloff and a period of rising equity volatility. The hosts and guest consider whether Bitcoin may be acting more like a safe haven, how spot price…
The document compares how large traders execute Bitcoin spot trades through exchanges and institutional over-the-counter brokers. Exchange users must first transfer dollars or Bitcoin, wait for funds to clear, and then place orders; delays can leave the…
This weekly report examines Bitcoin and Ether derivatives around the January 2025 presidential inauguration. It describes how expectations for executive actions, including a possible strategic Bitcoin reserve, coincided with elevated short-dated futures…
This market note interprets Bitcoin and Ether option activity during a period of heavy downward selling pressure. It lists several possible sources of pressure, including uncertainty around ETF flows and the CME basis trade, miner distributions,…
This podcast episode brings together a market commentator, a derivatives analyst, and a crypto journalist to discuss a sharp rebound in Bitcoin and Ether after a turbulent week. Its agenda spans the outlook for a possible recession and Federal Reserve cuts,…
This weekly report reviews Bitcoin and Ether derivatives during a strong spot-price rally. It tracks futures-implied yields, perpetual swap funding, at-the-money implied volatility, 25-delta risk reversals, and volatility surfaces. The analysis describes how…
This announcement introduces DVOL, an index intended to summarize Bitcoin options market expectations of volatility. Its construction uses the implied volatility smile across relevant expiries to produce a single measure of annualized implied volatility over…
This exchange reserve disclosure explains a method for letting customers and other observers compare customer liabilities with assets held on-chain. It describes a privacy-oriented modification of a Merkle-tree proof: account balances are split and…
This weekly review considers how the large year-end delivery of crypto options and futures could affect prices, volatility, and positioning. It describes a calm holiday period in which Bitcoin and Ether recovered important price levels, realized volatility…
This weekly market review tracks Bitcoin and Ether derivatives using implied volatility, options skew, risk appetite measures, and volatility surfaces. It describes how a rebound in spot prices coincided with options pricing becoming less bearish: seven-day…
This market commentary weighs conflicting U.S. inflation and labor signals against a recent rally in risk assets ahead of CPI and an FOMC decision. It notes earlier softer inflation readings that encouraged expectations of a policy pivot, followed by…
This article explains a proposed U.S. tax on energy used for digital asset mining and considers its possible effects on crypto businesses and markets. The plan described would have started at 10% in 2024 and risen by 10 percentage points annually to 30%. It…
This weekly market note examines Bitcoin and Ether options positioning ahead of an FOMC meeting. It describes a sharp but quickly reversed weekend Bitcoin move toward $24,000, elevated implied volatility in expiries spanning the meeting, and the possibility…
This podcast overview links crypto’s relative weakness against equities and gold to macroeconomic expectations and options positioning. It cites weak U.S. jobs data and a September rate cut priced by markets, alongside falling yields, lower oil prices, and…
This weekly market report reviews BTC and ETH derivatives during a rally associated with strong spot ETF inflows. It summarizes changes in perpetual swap funding, futures implied yields, at-the-money implied volatility, and 25-delta risk reversals. The…
This primer explains expiration payoffs for common BTC option positions, including naked calls, synthetic futures, vertical spreads, straddles, strangles, and butterflies. It uses payoff diagrams and position combinations to show how the strategies change…
The commentary examines changes in ETH options implied volatility smiles after the FTX collapse, focusing on how skew toward out-of-the-money puts differs across maturities. It uses SABR-calibrated smiles and the SABR rho parameter to describe the direction…
This podcast overview describes a discussion of crypto volatility trends and institutional trading. Topics include relative value between Bitcoin and Ethereum, whether ETH might outperform BTC, option skew, recent ETH option flows, and systematic trading. It…
This podcast description outlines an interview about the institutional crypto landscape. Matt Hougan presents a valuation argument in which Bitcoin could reach one million dollars if it captures 17% of a growing global store-of-value market. The episode also…