Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
610 documents
The article walks through a bitcoin cash-and-carry trade: buy BTC in the spot market, short a similarly sized futures position, then close the futures short and sell the BTC when the futures premium has narrowed. The paired positions are intended to reduce…
This article defines contango as futures trading above spot and backwardation as futures trading below spot, then discusses how these conditions may reflect the balance of demand among leveraged bullish investors, BTC borrowers, hedgers, miners, and…
This market commentary examines how BTC and ETH options pricing changed as spot prices stayed within ranges. It reports lower realized and implied volatility, a wider volatility risk premium, and a BTC term structure returning to contango. The analysis also…
The article explains a futures spread as a paired position in futures contracts on the same asset with different expiries. A spread order book lets a trader buy one expiry and sell another in a single order, trading the price difference between the…
The article explains why crypto option prices can be shown using either spot or forward values. It describes the cash-and-carry basis as a delta-neutral position whose returns reflect stablecoin financing yields, and argues that these yields influence the…
The commentary describes a crypto market with range-bound prices, stable realized volatility, and implied volatility still above realized volatility. That relationship leaves positive volatility carry, though the spread is compressing. The author interprets…
This document explains a Bitcoin cash and carry trade: buy spot BTC and sell a same-sized futures contract priced above spot. The paired positions are intended to hedge directional exposure and earn the futures premium as it converges toward the index…
This market commentary links the yen carry trade to liquidity available for risk assets, including bitcoin. Investors borrowing yen at low rates to buy higher-return assets may reduce that activity as Japanese bond yields rise and the rate gap with the…
The commentary links February 2025’s Bitcoin decline to compressed futures basis, ETF withdrawals, and a broader retreat from risk. It reports that CME basis stayed below 10% annualized for most of the month and reached 4.08%, while ETF outflows persisted…
The report frames lending yields on stablecoins in Compound, Aave, and Yearn as an emerging DeFi benchmark rate. It explains how that rate can affect both sides of adoption: higher deposit yields may attract savers but make borrowing costly, while lower…
This market commentary connects a sharp crypto rally with higher futures basis, on-chain borrowing rates, and perpetual futures funding. It describes a delta-neutral basis trade: buying spot BTC or ETH while selling front-month CME futures to capture the…
This market commentary explains how perpetual futures funding rates and the Bitcoin futures basis can indicate the cost of leverage and short-term capital in crypto markets. It describes the basis trade as buying spot Bitcoin while selling a nearby futures…
The commentary reviews Bitcoin’s response to April 2025 tariff news and describes activity in crypto credit markets. Bitcoin fell after tariff announcements and recovered as trade tensions eased. The report also notes positive futures basis, institutional…
This report reviews crypto lending and market conditions from March through May 2026. It connects macro uncertainty, Bitcoin’s recovery and pullbacks, and a sharp DeFi TVL decline after the rsETH/KelpDAO bridge exploit with changes in borrowing demand and…
This commentary explains why crypto borrowing costs may move differently from conventional loan rates when central banks cut policy rates. It argues that rates for assets such as bitcoin are driven substantially by demand for leverage and the basis trade,…
This market update links crypto lending activity to token events, derivatives basis changes, and the supply of available collateral. It describes increased USDe borrowing around ENA-related yield strategies and higher WLFI borrowing tied to anticipated token…
The report reviews crypto market and lending conditions in July, highlighting institutional ETH basis trades, a rise in borrowing demand, and stress in liquid staking. It explains how leveraged staking loops become uneconomic when borrowing costs exceed…
This market update explains how optimism around a July 2024 event coincided with a sharp increase in Bitcoin's front-month futures basis. The basis compares futures prices with spot and can support a delta-neutral cash-and-carry position: buy BTC in the spot…
This report explains how high staking participation can limit the supply of liquid, high-quality collateral available to decentralized lending markets. Staking competes with DeFi for native tokens; liquid staking tokens and other synthetic assets can make…
A forex carry trade seeks to earn the interest-rate difference between currencies by holding a position that receives the higher rate and pays the lower one. The document explains how that return depends on the position and notional, and introduces covered…
The article shows how an MQL5 expert advisor can incorporate overnight swap estimates into trade management. It describes reading long and short swap rates and the broker’s swap mode, converting supported modes into an estimated daily amount per lot in…
The dashboard reviews Bitcoin’s 2025 market through six regimes, tracking price, futures basis, open interest, and spot ETF flows. It argues that an annual return alone obscures large differences between phases, and describes a carry trade that pairs ETF…
The report interprets a 57-day crypto market selloff as a derivatives deleveraging event rather than clear evidence that bullish sentiment had ended. It describes how falling prices can trigger maintenance-margin liquidations, whose market orders push prices…
This market commentary reviews Bitcoin and Ethereum options after a rally and a major political event. It reports that realized volatility rose ahead of the event, while front-end implied volatility later fell as the event passed without major crypto policy…