Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
8,116 documents
This market note interprets Bitcoin and Ether option activity during a period of heavy downward selling pressure. It lists several possible sources of pressure, including uncertainty around ETF flows and the CME basis trade, miner distributions,…
This podcast episode brings together a market commentator, a derivatives analyst, and a crypto journalist to discuss a sharp rebound in Bitcoin and Ether after a turbulent week. Its agenda spans the outlook for a possible recession and Federal Reserve cuts,…
This weekly report reviews Bitcoin and Ether derivatives during a strong spot-price rally. It tracks futures-implied yields, perpetual swap funding, at-the-money implied volatility, 25-delta risk reversals, and volatility surfaces. The analysis describes how…
This announcement introduces DVOL, an index intended to summarize Bitcoin options market expectations of volatility. Its construction uses the implied volatility smile across relevant expiries to produce a single measure of annualized implied volatility over…
This weekly review considers how the large year-end delivery of crypto options and futures could affect prices, volatility, and positioning. It describes a calm holiday period in which Bitcoin and Ether recovered important price levels, realized volatility…
This weekly market review tracks Bitcoin and Ether derivatives using implied volatility, options skew, risk appetite measures, and volatility surfaces. It describes how a rebound in spot prices coincided with options pricing becoming less bearish: seven-day…
This market commentary weighs conflicting U.S. inflation and labor signals against a recent rally in risk assets ahead of CPI and an FOMC decision. It notes earlier softer inflation readings that encouraged expectations of a policy pivot, followed by…
This weekly market note examines Bitcoin and Ether options positioning ahead of an FOMC meeting. It describes a sharp but quickly reversed weekend Bitcoin move toward $24,000, elevated implied volatility in expiries spanning the meeting, and the possibility…
This podcast overview links crypto’s relative weakness against equities and gold to macroeconomic expectations and options positioning. It cites weak U.S. jobs data and a September rate cut priced by markets, alongside falling yields, lower oil prices, and…
This weekly market report reviews BTC and ETH derivatives during a rally associated with strong spot ETF inflows. It summarizes changes in perpetual swap funding, futures implied yields, at-the-money implied volatility, and 25-delta risk reversals. The…
This primer explains expiration payoffs for common BTC option positions, including naked calls, synthetic futures, vertical spreads, straddles, strangles, and butterflies. It uses payoff diagrams and position combinations to show how the strategies change…
The commentary examines changes in ETH options implied volatility smiles after the FTX collapse, focusing on how skew toward out-of-the-money puts differs across maturities. It uses SABR-calibrated smiles and the SABR rho parameter to describe the direction…
This podcast overview describes a discussion of crypto volatility trends and institutional trading. Topics include relative value between Bitcoin and Ethereum, whether ETH might outperform BTC, option skew, recent ETH option flows, and systematic trading. It…
This weekly report reviews crypto derivatives after a sharp Bitcoin spot decline. It connects the selloff with a weaker risk appetite reading, a renewed run of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, and defensive positioning in options and perpetual futures. It also…
This weekly report summarizes BTC and ETH derivatives conditions across futures yields, perpetual funding, implied volatility, volatility surfaces, and put-call skew. It describes positive implied spot yields in both assets, quieter funding, and declining…
The article presents a bearish conditional case for Ether while remaining more constructive on Bitcoin. It argues that a break of ETH’s cited support could expose lower technical levels and trigger liquidations. The author points to ETH’s recent…
This market note reviews subdued BTC and ETH prices ahead of an anticipated spot Ether ETF launch. It relates price weakness to macro signals, BTC miner and holder selling, and uncertainty about ETF inflows. The options discussion describes softer implied…
The document explains how an options chain can display an expected price range for each expiry, using the underlying price and at-the-money implied volatility. It interprets the range as an estimated one-standard-deviation move: under the assumed model, the…
This commentary explains a rapid flattening in Bitcoin option volatility smiles at the one-month and two-week tenors. It interprets the SABR VolVol parameter as a measure of smile steepness and compares snapshots across expiries. At the shorter tenors,…
The article argues that US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs could increase institutional participation and put downward pressure on implied volatility. It connects that forecast to a gap between realized and implied volatility, the distribution of outstanding puts…
This commentary compares short-dated Bitcoin and Ether option volatility smiles after two weekend rallies. It uses 25-delta put-call skew and SABR smile snapshots to describe how implied volatility differs across out-of-the-money puts, at-the-money options,…
This weekly derivatives report summarizes BTC and ETH futures, perpetual funding, and options markets. Its central observation is that implied volatility beyond the end of January is elevated relative to shorter expiries, while longer-dated option skews…
This market commentary combines macro context with crypto options indicators to argue that Bitcoin may outperform Ether in a broader-market rally. It discusses realized and implied volatility, the volatility risk premium, term structure, risk reversals,…
The document connects optimism around spot Ether ETF approval with a directional options trade. It describes buying a call at a lower strike and selling a call at a higher strike with the same expiry, creating a net-debit bull call spread. The example uses…