Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
12,303 documents
This podcast episode weighs macroeconomic expectations, Bitcoin ETF inflows, and options positioning in assessing Bitcoin and Ether. The hosts connect Bitcoin’s recent rebound to continued ETF inflows and discuss the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts.…
This podcast discussion examines Bitcoin’s recent strength, institutional interest, crypto regulation, and the possible effects of listing options on the IBIT exchange-traded fund. The guests describe a demand shock and gains holding above the 90,000 level,…
This podcast description previews a discussion of Bitcoin and broader risk markets during a period of tight crypto trading ranges and declining volatility. The hosts consider how political tensions between Donald Trump and Elon Musk coincided with brief…
The article compares Bitcoin’s realized volatility with VIX, using their ratio to argue that Bitcoin options were expensive relative to broader equity market volatility. It reports a current ratio of 3.4 times against a 2023 average of 2.4 times, and notes…
The note describes Bitcoin and Ether option activity ahead of an expected ETF decision, against a backdrop of a strong rally followed by quieter spot, volatility, and funding conditions. It reports that traders had been buying calls and call spreads, while…
This commentary interprets crypto options pricing through three SABR volatility-smile parameters: at-the-money implied volatility, volatility of volatility, and rho. It describes a market state in which at-the-money volatility had fallen near historical lows…
This weekly report summarizes market conditions in Bitcoin and Ether derivatives. It describes futures-implied yields as broadly flat in a low range across maturities, while short-lived realised volatility led at-the-money implied volatility to rise and then…
The article introduces DVOL futures, contracts tied to an index derived from options and intended to reflect expected volatility over the coming 30 days. It distinguishes implied volatility, which looks ahead through option prices, from historical…
This commentary tracks a crypto market correction through realized and implied volatility, term structure, skew, options flows, and dealer gamma. It describes short-dated put premiums rising in BTC and ETH while longer expiries retain call premiums, a…
This market commentary examines Bitcoin and Ether options after a stalled crypto rally. It reports lower realized and front-end implied volatility, positive volatility carry, and a shift in short-dated skew from call premium toward put premium. The author…
The note interprets recent Bitcoin and Ether options trading amid disappointment over Hong Kong ETF activity and weak sentiment. It describes continued selling of higher-strike ETH calls, followed by purchases of near-dated puts as spot approached $3,000.…
The commentary links abrupt crypto price moves to a thinner and more concentrated exchange market. It argues that exchange volumes have weakened relative to crypto market capitalization as activity shifts toward a smaller number of venues, custody concerns…
The article examines whether ETH’s rapid rise during a bearish, low-liquidity market was driven by a gamma squeeze. It describes a proposed chain: traders bought short-dated out-of-the-money calls, option sellers hedged by buying spot or perpetual contracts,…
This weekly recap describes how a weekend selloff and subsequent rally appeared in BTC and ETH derivatives. It follows futures-implied yields and perpetual swap funding rates, reporting that yields became strongly negative before recovering, while BTC…
This commentary examines BTC and ETH options around a Federal Reserve rate announcement. It describes implied volatility falling sharply after the rate decision, alongside a decline in realized BTC volatility. The observations suggest that volatility…
This podcast overview previews a discussion of Bitcoin and crypto markets ahead of a halving, combining macro commentary with options-market analysis. The hosts and guest cover institutional demand, crypto options and hedging, relative performance of Ether…
This market note examines crypto options after enthusiasm around spot Bitcoin ETFs faded. It links weaker prices and ETF flows to a volatility reset, then compares Bitcoin and Ether term structures, skew, realized volatility, trading volumes, and dealer…
This weekly market commentary tracks Bitcoin options activity during a volatile stretch in January 2021. It describes large positions shifting from near-the-money calls into downside puts, followed by aggressive buying of far out-of-the-money calls around…
This trade note proposes a Bitcoin call ratio spread for traders expecting sideways to moderately higher prices. The example buys one out-of-the-money call at a lower strike and sells two calls at a higher strike with the same expiry. It frames the position…
This market commentary reviews a surge in Ethereum realized volatility alongside Bitcoin's comparatively stable realized volatility. It connects the ETH move to renewed speculation about a spot ETF, while also noting macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin ETF…
This commentary describes a relative-value volatility view based on the ratio of Bitcoin to Ethereum implied volatility. The author considered the ratio unusually high against its stated historical range and relative to realized volatility, reasoning that…
This commentary examines a sharp shift in short-tenor BTC options toward out-of-the-money puts. It uses SABR-calibrated volatility smile skew and compares seven-day 25-delta call and put implied volatility with at-the-money volatility. The observations…
This market note interprets Bitcoin and Ether options conditions alongside spot-market context. It reports that implied volatility remains above realized volatility, which the author reads as evidence that traders are pricing movement or carrying short-gamma…
The commentary reviews crypto market moves after Bitcoin’s mid-March pullback, describing it as a reduction in leverage after a rapid rally. It compares relative performance across major assets and highlights strength in several layer-one tokens and…