Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
12,303 documents
This commentary reads BTC and ETH option transactions as clues about changing positioning. It describes earlier purchases of September BTC calls and ETH calls, a fund taking profit on ETH calls near the day’s high, and later purchases of October puts in both…
This weekly market recap interprets BTC and ETH derivatives indicators, including perpetual swap funding, futures yields, at-the-money implied volatility, and 25-delta risk reversals. It reports that BTC futures yields have fallen from earlier in the month…
This market note interprets Bitcoin and Ether options activity alongside a reported reduction in selling from a Bitcoin trust. The author says that reduced outflows coincided with fund demand for calls, including apparent covering of out-of-the-money March…
The article analyzes a Bitcoin pullback ahead of the holidays through positioning, futures premiums, technical signals, and market segmentation. It argues that stretched leveraged longs, bullish CME futures positioning at a premium to spot, and weakening…
This weekly commentary links crypto price action to macroeconomic conditions, adoption headlines, and derivatives positioning. It discusses how tokens reacted to platform and payment announcements, while cautioning that crypto remained exposed to broader…
This overview explains a Python tool for calculating and charting historical volatility from daily price data. It describes two estimators: close-to-close volatility, which uses successive closing prices, and the Parkinson method, which uses each day’s high…
This weekly market review tracks BTC and ETH options conditions after a quiet holiday period. It compares at-the-money implied volatility with realized volatility, describes changes in 25-delta call-put skew, and examines how short- and longer-dated implied…
This market review links a sharp crypto selloff to changes in realized volatility, implied volatility, options skew, and trading flow. It reports elevated realized volatility in BTC and ETH alongside a deeply negative volatility risk premium, meaning the…
This market recap analyzes Ethereum’s post-Shapella move relative to Bitcoin, focusing on price action, options pricing, and derivatives flows. The author reports ETH outperformance and short liquidations after a delayed rally, while noting that the initial…
This report reviews BTC and ETH derivatives during a period when spot prices moved toward the bottom of their recent ranges. It says short-dated implied volatility rose as traders sought downside protection, and options smiles remained tilted toward…
This weekly report tracks BTC and ETH derivatives around the March 22 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which it says confirmed a 25 basis point rate increase. It describes at-the-money implied volatility falling after the meeting, while a subsequent…
This weekly snapshot reviews BTC and ETH futures yields, perpetual swap funding, and options volatility and skew. It reports falling implied volatility across both assets, with short tenors reaching stated lows in the 25% to 30% range. Futures yields were…
This podcast episode discusses a pause in the crypto rally ahead of Bitcoin's halving, with attention to support levels, macroeconomic pressures, and options pricing. The hosts consider whether a stronger US dollar and concerns about Chinese capital flight…
This weekly analytics recap reviews Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives through futures yields, perpetual swap funding, implied volatility, volatility surfaces, and SABR smile skew. It reports shorter dated yields recovering toward longer dated futures levels,…
This market commentary examines Bitcoin and Ethereum options after Bitcoin reached new highs, focusing on why call skew did not become more extreme after a strong rally. It reports softer implied volatility alongside rising prices and describes the…
This brief weekly note interprets Bitcoin options activity amid strongly negative sentiment and widespread fear. It reports unusually elevated skew, which the author reads as evidence that traders are seeking protection, while implied volatility remains…
This report interprets BTC and ETH options pricing around expected policy and legislative events. It describes broadly flat implied volatility, with BTC options’ overall levels around 38% to 39% and a small premium in seven-day options over fourteen-day…
This weekly market recap reviews BTC and ETH derivatives using futures-implied yields, at-the-money implied volatility, and option volatility smiles. It reports BTC futures-implied yields above zero at tenors below one year, with at-the-money implied…
The article expects Bitcoin to trade in a range through year-end absent credible progress toward approval of a spot ETF. It points to upcoming inflation and Federal Reserve events, a low options-implied move around employment data, and the possibility of…
The commentary contrasts close US election polling with market prices that imply a strong expectation of a Trump victory. It cites prediction-market odds, a rally in Bitcoin, gains in DOGE, and a rise in Trump Media shares as signs of that market view. It…
This market commentary examines BTC and ETH during a choppy period, relating price weakness to realized and implied volatility, term structures, relative ETH/BTC volatility, skew, option flows, and dealer gamma. It reports that BTC volatility firmed across…
This weekly commentary reviews crypto volatility after the FTX collapse, noting that realized volatility had eased while uncertainty around further credit deleveraging could still revive market swings. It compares BTC and ETH volatility, observes elevated…
This options-flow note reviews positioning in Ether and Bitcoin during a period of renewed upside interest. It highlights large purchases of short-dated ETH calls at the 2,800 strike and relates them to an earlier December call spread. The reported…
The analysis describes a long-volatility trade around the launch of an Ether ETF. It reports the profit and loss from holding an ETH straddle struck at $1,650 from September 30 into the October 2 event, while rebalancing hourly to keep delta flat. The…