Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
12,303 documents
This analysis examines how BTC/USD spot markets changed over Bitcoin’s first decade, focusing on efficiency, liquidity, volatility, and similarities to foreign exchange. It describes how professional arbitrage firms and faster fiat transfers narrowed…
This note interprets three reported Ether options trades ahead of clarification related to Ether ETFs: a call spread, an outright put purchase, and a straddle. The call spread is framed as bullish, the puts as bearish, and the straddle as a volatility…
This weekly report reviews Bitcoin and Ether derivatives alongside macroeconomic developments. It links a short rally in Bitcoin to US employment data and a trade announcement, then summarizes changes in perpetual swap funding, futures-implied yields,…
The commentary traces Bitcoin options activity around a move above 100,000, a record high, and a rapid selloff. It describes initial demand for December calls and later January call spreads, followed by sizable selling of higher strike calls as spot stalled.…
This weekly market report reviews Bitcoin and Ether futures yields, perpetual swap funding, and options volatility and skew after an early-week spot selloff. It says spot prices and the kink in at-the-money implied volatility term structures recovered, while…
This weekly options-flow commentary tracks changing Bitcoin market sentiment across two July updates. In the first, it describes cautious positioning: traders bought short-dated out-of-the-money puts, sold at-the-money upside call spreads, and maintained…
This podcast episode reviews Bitcoin’s attempt to move above resistance and discusses how China-related developments and changing US election expectations may affect the bullish outlook. It also covers crypto volatility and positioning, including whether…
This two-day option-flow report examines Bitcoin and Ether positioning around a US inflation release and the Ethereum Merge. Before the CPI release, it describes a large fund adding short-dated Bitcoin calls, with additional call exposure in later expiries.…
This market note tracks option buying in Bitcoin and Ether during a period of range-bound Bitcoin prices and declining implied volatility. It describes call buyers adding exposure on Bitcoin rallies and put buyers appearing near lows, with neither flow yet…
This podcast recap examines crypto trading ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting. It describes Bitcoin moving in a choppy range, quick recoveries from dips after weak jobs data, and Ethereum approaching its previous all-time highs. The discussion links summer…
This weekly review describes a quiet crypto market following a brief selloff linked to Federal Reserve comments. Spot trading activity contracted, while derivatives positioning and expectations became broadly neutral with a slight bearish tilt. The report…
This weekly review analyzes a sharp weekend rally in BTC and ETH through options positioning, volatility pricing, and derivatives flows. It explains that dealers holding short gamma may need to adjust hedges as prices rise, potentially amplifying moves,…
This market commentary connects BTC and ETH spot moves with derivatives pricing and options activity. It describes BTC falling back after a rally through resistance, alongside a decline in realized volatility that pulled near-term implied volatility lower…
This commentary examines BTC options volatility in early 2023, describing a market pattern of extended quiet periods interrupted by sharp volatility spikes. It reports that at-the-money implied volatility declined across tenors after January’s price moves,…
The report reviews BTC volatility surface behavior in the first quarter of 2023, covering at-the-money term structure, spot and implied volatility relationships, risk-reversal skew, options activity, futures basis, and perpetual contracts. It describes a…
This market update interprets recent BTC and ETH price action through realized and implied volatility, options carry, skew, and trading flows. It argues that rising realized volatility alongside pressured implied volatility and negative carry can make long…
The article compares crypto options with traditional options and proposes three reasons for their smaller relative market: traditional options have had decades to mature, crypto holders may have less need to hedge, and crypto lacks the established prime…
This weekly report summarizes Bitcoin and Ether futures, perpetual swap funding, and options conditions. It describes annualized futures yields as moving sideways, with short tenors recovering from the prior week, especially for Ether. Funding rates for both…
This trade note proposes selling a Bitcoin call on the view that overhead supply zones may limit further gains after the halving. Its example sells an April 26, 2024 call with a $72,000 strike for $230 per BTC, identifying that premium as the maximum profit…
This market commentary interprets Bitcoin options activity around a spot decline to $112,000. It reports that fast-money traders continued to buy momentum puts, with some taking profit, while institutions and miners sold out-of-the-money calls expiring in…
This market commentary interprets BTC and ETH options through realized and implied volatility, term structures, volatility spreads, option skew, trade flows, and dealer gamma positioning. It links changing short-term volatility and skew to spot moves and…
This weekly market note uses Block Scholes indicators to describe BTC and ETH derivatives conditions. It tracks risk appetite, at-the-money implied volatility, 25-delta risk reversals, and volatility smiles across exchanges and maturities. The report…
This weekly report reviews Bitcoin and Ether derivatives through annualized futures-implied yields, at-the-money implied volatility, volatility skew, and the shape of each asset’s volatility smile. It describes how those measures changed around a recent spot…
The episode discusses why Bitcoin fell after Bank of Japan rate-hike signals and whether the move reflects a renewed Japanese carry-trade unwind. The speakers argue that fears of rapid repatriation by Japanese investors are overstated because domestic…