Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
12,303 documents
The article reviews BTC and ETH market conditions during a week of falling realized and implied volatility. It connects low realized volatility with lower option premiums, a downward-shifting term structure, and positive carry that may reward option sellers.…
The document presents a bearish Bitcoin options idea based on a rejection near resistance and a claimed breach of demand zones. Its proposed trade is a put butterfly: buy one higher-strike put, sell two puts at a middle strike, and buy one lower-strike put,…
This market commentary reviews BTC and ETH price weakness, volatility, term structure, skew, option flows, and dealer gamma around the April 2024 halving. It describes front-end put premiums returning as traders sought protection, while longer-dated call…
The note interprets a set of reported crypto option trades near the end of 2023. It highlights buying in an ETH March $2,000–$3,000 call spread, ETH at-the-money options for December, and January and March $3,000 calls. At the same time, it reports selling…
The document presents a short strangle as a way to express the view that Bitcoin will remain within a range around a US CPI release. The example sells a May 17 call at $65,000 and a put at $59,000, collecting premiums of $227 and $201 per BTC. It states a…
This market commentary reviews bitcoin and ether price action, options pricing, and positioning around a possible post-December rally. It describes both assets retreating after brief moves above cited price thresholds, while framing supportive US policy…
This market note interprets a sequence of bitcoin options trades around a price bounce and macroeconomic releases. It describes protective January puts being closed or rolled to lower strikes, alongside purchases of March calls and a longer-dated risk…
This weekly review describes how macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns weighed on crypto prices and risk appetite. Bitcoin briefly reached a more than two-week low, while ether fell below a cited support level. The report uses Block Scholes risk appetite…
This weekly report interprets BTC and ETH futures, perpetual swap funding, and options indicators as signs of bullish positioning ahead of a US election. It describes rising futures-implied yields and positive funding as evidence of leveraged long demand,…
This market commentary links Bitcoin’s move toward $50,000 with rising implied and realized volatility, options flows, dealer gamma, and changes in volatility term structures. It reports increased BTC call buying, negative BTC dealer gamma, and ETH short…
This market note examines a sharp rotation in crypto derivatives after BlackRock registered an Ether trust, which the author interpreted as a signal of a possible spot ETF application. Bitcoin had risen on spot buying, but attention then shifted toward…
This report reviews Bitcoin and Ether derivatives after a sharp spot-market selloff. It describes futures-implied yields falling as futures prices moved below spot, and Bitcoin perpetual funding turning negative after a prolonged positive period. Ether…
This weekly report compares Bitcoin and Ether futures, perpetual swap funding, and options as an expected January ETF date approached. Its key observation is that short-dated volatility and skew began to diverge: Bitcoin’s at-the-money volatility term…
This weekly market note interprets Bitcoin options activity around expectations for policy announcements, including a proposed strategic reserve. It links the initial sale of February and March options to fading patience, then describes traders buying…
The article proposes a BTC call ratio spread for a sideways-to-bullish outlook. The example buys one out-of-the-money call at a lower strike and sells two calls at a higher strike, all with the same expiry. The rationale is that Bitcoin had retraced after…
This podcast summary discusses changing US political attitudes toward cryptocurrency, the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF, and expectations for ETH and the broader altcoin market. It describes a bullish interpretation of the regulatory backdrop and notes…
This weekly recap compares BTC and ETH futures, perpetual swap funding, and options after a spot selloff. It reports that futures yields briefly fell at short maturities before recovering, while perpetual funding remained positive, indicating that traders…
This podcast episode reviews a sharp BTC decline that broke long-term support and triggered liquidations, position unwinds, and unusually strong downside pricing in options. The description reports that front-end put skew reached an extreme and implied…
This weekly market recap describes changing conditions in BTC and ETH futures, perpetual swaps, and options. It reports that implied volatility rose across maturities, with a pronounced short-dated spike in ETH after analysts raised the perceived chance of…
This commentary compares Bitcoin and Ether option volatility smiles at one-week and one-month expiries. It measures skew using the implied-volatility difference between 10-delta calls and puts, and also discusses the SABR rho parameter, where negative values…
This report examines Bitcoin options data from April 2019 through December 2022 across distinct spot and volatility regimes. It studies at-the-money term structure, spot and volatility relationships, 25-delta risk-reversal skew, and variance risk premium.…
This market commentary interprets a sharp Bitcoin rebound through macro conditions and options-market measures. It links earlier weakness to hawkish Bank of Japan signals, soft Chinese data, risk aversion, and liquidation pressure, then points to improved US…
This October 2022 commentary connects a crypto rebound to improving equity sentiment and a softer dollar, while arguing that the macroeconomic outlook remained restrictive. The authors expected rate decisions and inflation data to create event risk, despite…
This weekly report surveys BTC and ETH derivatives conditions through implied volatility, futures yields, perpetual swap funding, and options skew. It describes BTC as having a less inverted implied volatility curve than ETH, whose implied volatility traded…