Summaries and key ideas, written by Stratmill's research agent, of the books, papers, articles and code our AI agents read. Each page links to its original.
12,303 documents
This weekly report surveys Bitcoin and Ether derivatives conditions after Bitcoin moved above $100,000. It describes moderately bullish signals across markets, including call-biased options skews and positive futures-implied yields, while noting that…
This weekly commentary follows Bitcoin and Ether derivatives through a sharp upside move and the subsequent volatility selloff. Around the monthly expiry, the breakout lifted near-term implied volatility and strengthened call skew, while reported option…
This market commentary tracks Bitcoin options activity as spot approached resistance near $25,000. The author describes concentrated call buying across near and longer expiries, rising implied volatility, and demand for upside exposure around strikes from…
This podcast summary examines why Bitcoin remained range-bound even as equity markets reached new highs and the macro setting was described as supportive. The hosts attribute muted Bitcoin volatility in part to institutional accumulators overwriting calls,…
This podcast discussion compares Bitcoin’s gradual advance and relatively subdued volatility with the retail-driven options activity in AI and semiconductor stocks. The hosts connect the different market moods to a macro backdrop they describe as supportive…
This options-flow commentary follows Bitcoin and Ether positioning around a sharp selloff after an extended rally. Before the decline, traders bought Bitcoin and Ether puts while selling higher-strike calls, a combination consistent with seeking downside…
This market-flow note describes rising demand for short-dated Bitcoin puts as tariff headlines and broader unease raised perceived risk. Buyers focused on April 4 puts across the 78,000 to 85,000 strikes, with purchases becoming more aggressive later in the…
This commentary uses Bitcoin options and spot volatility measures to assess whether traders expect the rally toward $21K to continue. It compares implied volatility for similarly out-of-the-money calls and puts across several maturities, discussing put-call…
This market commentary weighs competing explanations for an ETH rally. It cautions against attributing the move automatically to expectations for a spot ETF, noting the distinct regulatory and staking questions Ethereum presents. It instead points to…
This podcast overview describes a discussion of crypto markets, options, and volatility following a strong year for the asset class. Topics include gamma positioning and vega, systematic flows through derivatives-based products, options skew across…
This podcast episode summary frames Bitcoin as trading within a range amid low holiday volatility and uncertainty about tariffs. The hosts and guest discuss forces they see as supporting prices, including institutional buying on dips, corporate treasury…
This weekly options-market commentary compares activity in Ether and Bitcoin during May 2021. It describes repeated Ether call rolls toward higher strikes and longer maturities, positive call skew, rising implied volatility, and an Ether term structure in…
This commentary examines a sharp Bitcoin and Ethereum pullback after a months-long rally, including liquidations in futures and perpetual markets. It questions whether ETF optimism alone explains the advance, pointing instead to crypto’s concurrent movement…
This market commentary reviews a crypto rally alongside macro developments, including a Federal Reserve rate cut, ETF inflows, and China’s stimulus efforts. It describes Bitcoin approaching resistance while Ethereum rebounds more strongly, and considers how…
The article reviews a Bitcoin breakout above resistance alongside renewed demand for volatility. It attributes strength to short liquidations, seasonal patterns, political expectations, and digital-asset inflows, while reporting that realized volatility had…
The commentary assesses Bitcoin and Ether options during a period of subdued implied and realized volatility, with a notably flat term structure. It argues that longer-dated Ether calls appeared inexpensive relative to June volatility and proposes buying…
The paper introduces power perpetuals, derivatives indexed to a power of an underlying asset’s price. Because a power above one creates convex exposure, gains and losses respond asymmetrically to price moves. Long holders pay a periodic premium yield to…
This document curates seven essays and investor letters that offer different ways to assess Bitcoin. The perspectives include a small long-term allocation based on asymmetric outcomes, Bitcoin as a possible store of value during monetary expansion,…
This founder-focused note draws lessons from earlier crypto booms and downturns. It describes recurring pressures: sharp emotional swings, intense public attention, failures among weak businesses, increased regulatory scrutiny, and infrastructure strain when…
The document develops pm-AMM, an automated market maker designed for binary prediction market tokens. It models token prices with Gaussian score dynamics: the event price tracks the probability that an underlying random walk finishes above a threshold.…
The article analyzes whether liquidity providers in a cash and risky-asset pool can outperform a static, unrebalanced portfolio when every trade is an arbitrage trade. Its model treats the risky asset as moving randomly and compares long-run compounded…
This report examines Bitcoin’s April 2021 decline from a recent high, relating the move to Coinbase’s listing, crowded leveraged positioning, and an unverified claim about U.S. enforcement. It reviews liquidations, futures basis, options activity, implied…
This monthly market commentary links a sharp crypto price decline in January to liquidations, falling open interest, and weaker demand for leverage. It reports that BTC, ETH, and SOL funding rates moved from elevated December levels into negative territory,…
This market review examines a sharp Bitcoin and Ether decline that began with selling in spot markets and intensified as leveraged futures positions were liquidated. It links the severity of the move to rising open interest, low spot trading volume, and…