A Falsifiable Elliott Wave Impulse Indicator with Structural Invalidation

Summary

This document describes an Elliott Wave indicator that maintains one active impulse hypothesis, seeded when price breaks market structure against the prevailing bias. It uses separate long and short pivot depths for structural breaks and wave-point acceptance. Accepted points can relocate until later price action confirms them; points outside expected Fibonacci ranges remain in the count with a visual marker. A chart projection sketches possible future points, while a trailing invalidation level specifies the price action that ends the current interpretation.

The method treats the rule that wave three cannot be the shortest impulse leg as a hard rejection condition and handles an apparent continuation beyond point five as a completed count. The text explains chart annotations and configurable confirmation modes, but provides no backtest, performance statistics, or independent evidence that the counts predict future prices. The projection is explicitly a parameter-based sketch, and the indicator’s labels should be treated as hypotheses rather than forecasts.

Key ideas

• Separate pivot depths let the indicator detect broad structure and accept internal wave turns at different speeds.
• A count begins on a change of character against the existing structural bias.
• Wave points outside their expected Fibonacci ranges are retained and marked rather than discarded.
• The invalidation level advances as the count develops and can use close or wick confirmation.
• The indicator enforces the shortest-wave-three rule but does not validate the strategy with performance evidence.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.