A Filtered Short Strategy for Rising DAX Markets

Summary

This document presents a rules-based short strategy for the DAX on a four-hour chart. It compares a fast, multi-stage exponential average with a slower Hull moving average, then looks for a brief bearish reversal while price and averages indicate an upward market. Entry is further restricted by an average true range threshold and calendar and clock filters. The example uses one contract and specifies fixed percentage stop-loss and profit-target levels.

The document gives code and a plain-language outline of the entry logic, but reports no backtest, trade history, or performance statistics. The author characterizes the trade as having an even chance, without providing supporting evidence. The setup is therefore a strategy specification to evaluate, not demonstrated proof of an edge. It is short-only, tied to particular instrument and timeframe assumptions, and its filters and parameters may not transfer across markets or data conventions.

Key ideas

• The strategy looks for short entries when price and a fast average sit above a slower average.
• A two-step sequence of closing prices is used as a simple bearish reversal signal.
• Volatility, month, weekday, and time-of-day conditions filter potential entries.
• The example uses a fixed stop and target, while reporting no evidence of tested performance.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.