A Hull Trend Indicator with Z-Score-Based Price Stretch

Summary

Tension Flow Trend combines a Hull moving average baseline with a Z-Score of price’s deviation from that baseline. The baseline slope sets the directional colour, while the deviation divided by its rolling standard deviation measures how far price has stretched in normalized terms. The indicator displays that reading through a volatility-scaled ribbon whose fill becomes more opaque as tension rises. It labels readings beyond an absolute Z-Score of two as overextended, framing them as possible pullback conditions rather than certain reversals.

Directional START arrows appear when price crosses the baseline in the direction of its slope, subject to a configurable bar cooldown. The article proposes using slope for trend bias, tension to avoid chasing extended moves, and a return toward the baseline as a possible trend re-entry area. It describes the calculation and settings but provides no backtest, comparative evidence, or measured predictive accuracy. Results may vary with instrument, timeframe, and parameter choices; the signals and stretch thresholds are indicator rules, not proof of profitable trades.

Key ideas

• The indicator measures price deviation from a Hull moving average in rolling standard-deviation units.
• Baseline slope determines trend colour, while ribbon opacity represents the magnitude of the deviation.
• Readings with absolute Z-Scores above two are designated overextended and may warn against chasing price.
• START signals require a price cross aligned with baseline slope and respect a cooldown between signals.
• The document offers no backtest or evidence that the indicator’s signals predict profitable trades.

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This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.