A Logistic Regression Indicator Combining Six Technical Signals

Summary

This document describes a market direction indicator that combines six technical inputs: RSI, CCI, directional movement, Aroon, moving averages, and Supertrend. Each input is converted to a bullish or bearish state, then weighted and passed through a logistic sigmoid to produce a value interpreted as directional probability. The indicator treats readings above or below the midpoint as bullish or bearish and marks crossings as potential signals.

The weights are intended to adapt through gradient descent, with recent price movement classified using a closing-price z-score as the learning target. The text also describes a chart table showing input states and current weights, and notes that the learning rate controls adaptation speed. It supplies code and parameter settings but no backtest results or evidence of predictive performance. The displayed update equations and target encoding may warrant independent review before use; the probability output should not be assumed calibrated, and the method’s robustness is unestablished.

Key ideas

• Six technical indicators are reduced to binary directional inputs and combined in a logistic model.
• The sigmoid output is interpreted as a bullish or bearish probability around a midpoint threshold.
• The model adjusts indicator weights using gradient descent against a price-derived target.
• A chart table exposes each input state and its evolving weight.
• The document provides implementation details but no performance evaluation or validation.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.