A Path-Convergence Portfolio for Live Football Markets
Summary
This experiment proposes a live football market portfolio that combines a favored team’s win contract with two low-probability protective score paths, such as a drawless score and a narrow underdog win. The basket aims to earn by closing early if the favorite’s price rises enough to cover the initial basket cost and a target profit. It is not a complete event or risk-free arbitrage: uncovered outcomes can produce losses. The author also proposes a Poisson score model, either calibrated from exact-score market prices or supplied with expected goals, to estimate basket coverage and filter entries.
During a match, the model is intended to account for the current score and remaining time, considering only still-possible final scores. The article gives an illustrative price calculation and describes the model and early-exit logic, but supplies no systematic performance results. It emphasizes that the independent-goal assumptions are crude and that red cards, tactical changes, and other events can invalidate estimates. It recommends position caps, loss limits, and stop rules, and frames the strategy as a preliminary experiment suited only to matches with a clear favorite and affordable protective legs.
Key ideas
- The proposed basket combines a favored team’s win with selected low-probability protective score contracts.
- An early exit may lock in a gain if the favorite contract’s sellable value rises enough to cover basket cost and target profit.
- A Poisson score model estimates coverage and can be calibrated against exact-score market prices.
- Live estimates should account for elapsed time, current score, and scorelines that remain possible.
- The basket leaves outcomes uncovered and is neither complete nor risk-free; controls are needed for losses.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.