A Poisson-Filtered Soccer Bet Basket for In-Play Path Convergence
Summary
The document proposes a live soccer market strategy between pure arbitrage and outright prediction. It buys a favored team’s win contract alongside low-priced 0–0 and 0–1 exact-score contracts, treating them as a partial basket of likely paths. If the favored team scores early and its win contract’s bid rises enough to cover the basket’s initial cost plus a profit target, the strategy closes positions before the match ends. The author stresses that this is not a complete set of outcomes or risk-free arbitrage; uncovered scores can leave the basket at a loss.
A basic independent Poisson goals model supplies an entry filter. It can estimate team scoring rates manually or fit them to selected market score prices, then compare modeled coverage probability with basket cost. During play, the model accounts for current score and remaining time, while actual bids determine whether the basket can be sold. The article gives an illustrative Brazil–Haiti price example and outlines contract lookup and live-state handling. It offers no performance study, and notes model simplifications, execution uncertainty, and the need for position limits and loss controls.
Key ideas
- The proposed basket combines a favored team win contract with selected exact-score protection legs.
- The basket covers only some match outcomes, so it can lose if an uncovered score occurs.
- A Poisson score model is used to filter entries by comparing estimated coverage probability with market cost.
- In-play exits depend on the basket’s actual bid value reaching its cost plus a target profit.
- The model assumes simplified scoring dynamics and does not account fully for tactical changes or match events.
Tags
This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.