A Seasonal Four-Hour DAX Short Strategy with EMA and Fixed Exits

Summary

This strategy proposes shorting the DAX on a four-hour chart when price is above the 50-period exponential moving average but the most recent close is below the preceding close. It applies calendar and session filters: it excludes specified months, restricts entries to weekdays, and limits trading to a defined daytime window in Berlin time. The position size is one contract, with a fixed percentage stop loss and profit target of equal size.

The source describes the system as simple and notes that it may require substantial capital or micro lots, but it provides no backtest results, rationale for the selected filters, or assessment of transaction costs and slippage. The entry condition is a short-term pullback while price remains above its longer moving average, so its behavior may depend heavily on market regime. The described rules are specific to the DAX and stated timeframe; the text does not establish their performance on other instruments or periods.

Key ideas

• The system enters short when the latest close falls while price remains above a 50-period exponential moving average.
• Entries are restricted by month, weekday, and trading-hour filters.
• Each entry uses one contract and equal percentage stop-loss and profit-target levels.
• The source gives no test results or explanation for how the seasonal filters were selected.
• Capital requirements and position sizing may limit practical use.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.