A Short-Term BTC Put Butterfly for a Move Toward $61,000

Summary

This strategy note proposes a short-dated Bitcoin put butterfly for a bearish outlook targeting the $62,000–$61,000 area. The example buys one $63,000 put, sells two $61,000 puts, and buys one $59,000 put, with all legs expiring on April 5. The strikes are equally spaced, creating a limited-risk position whose payoff is concentrated around the middle strike at expiration.

The note cites weak Bitcoin ETF inflows, a market sell-off, and breaks below prior support and a four-hour demand zone as reasons for expecting a test of lower support. It states that the example has a maximum profit of $1,880 per BTC and a debit of $120 per BTC, and that the debit is the maximum loss if the market rises. The structure benefits most if expiry spot is at the middle strike; outcomes depend on expiry price and execution costs. The article is a dated trade illustration, not evidence from backtesting, and its market levels and option prices may not apply in other conditions.

Key ideas

• A long put butterfly combines one higher-strike long put, two middle-strike short puts, and one lower-strike long put with a shared expiry.
• The example uses $63,000, $61,000, and $59,000 strikes and targets a move toward the middle strike.
• The position has a stated debit of $120 per BTC and a maximum profit of $1,880 per BTC in the example.
• The article links its bearish thesis to weak ETF inflows and breaks below cited support levels.
• The payoff is sensitive to the expiry price, and the article offers no backtest or evidence of repeatable performance.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.