A Turtle Soup Forex Strategy Using Short-Term Breakout Reversals
Summary
This post presents a Turtle Soup-style strategy for forex on a 30-minute chart. It looks for a close beyond the preceding five-bar low or high, while using the relative position of two exponential moving averages to filter trades by trend. Entries are restricted to a stated intraday time window and occur at the next bar’s open. Positions exit when price crosses the opposite five-bar extreme, with a stop based on average true range.
The author reports that personal tests appeared profitable over the long term across most currency pairs, but the profit factor was disappointing. The post gives no detailed performance statistics, pair-by-pair results, transaction-cost assumptions, or validation method. It also notes that its platform could not test earlier than 2010, while another source showed results back to 2006. Those limitations, alongside the author’s uncertainty about possible code improvements, make the reported performance preliminary rather than conclusive.
Key ideas
- The strategy trades reversals beyond recent five-bar highs or lows, filtered by two exponential moving averages.
- Entries use a defined trading-hours window and the next bar’s open.
- Exits occur after price moves beyond the opposite recent extreme, with an ATR-based stop.
- The author reports weak profit factor despite claimed long-term profitability, without detailed validation evidence.
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This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.