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Applying Itô’s Lemma to Forward Prices with Stochastic Rates

Article Quant Q&A · Author: JB1

Summary

The document addresses how to derive forward-price dynamics when both the underlying asset and interest rates are stochastic. One response applies Itô’s lemma to a function of time, spot price, and rate, including the rate’s variance and the covariance between rate and spot changes. This gives a framework for assembling the resulting differential, though the question excerpt does not provide all initial equations or a fully simplified final expression.

A second response cautions that a bond price cannot generally be represented by discounting at a single stochastic rate. It defines a zero-coupon bond through the expected discount factor over future short rates and leaves its volatility unspecified, then applies Itô’s lemma to the spot-to-bond ratio. The risk-neutral drift of the bond is the short rate; changing to a maturity-specific forward measure can make the forward price driftless. With constant or deterministic rates, the bond volatility terms vanish and the forward is already driftless under the risk-neutral measure. The dynamics depend on the chosen rate model.

Key ideas

  • Itô’s lemma for a forward depending on spot and rates includes rate variance and spot-rate covariance terms.
  • A stochastic zero-coupon bond price depends on the path of future short rates.
  • The bond’s risk-neutral drift equals the short rate, while its volatility depends on the rate model.
  • A change to the forward measure can make the forward price driftless.
  • With deterministic rates, the forward is driftless under the risk-neutral measure.

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Full text
# Application of Itô's lemma - Forward process


# Application of Itô's lemma - Forward process












How would be applied the itô's lemma in the following equation:

And we know that:

## Answer by Sanjay (score 1, accepted)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/44709

Start by defining the function $f(t,s,r):=se^{r(T-t)}$ where $T$ is just a parameter here. The derivatives of $f$ is: $$f_t(t,s,r)=-se^{r(T-t)} \text{ , } f_s(t,s,r)=e^{r(T-t)} \text{ , } f_r(t,s,r)=se^{r(T-t)}(T-t)\\ f_{s,s}(t,s,r)= 0 \text{ , } f_{r,r}(t,s,r)=se^{r(T-t)}(T-t)^2 \text{ , } f_{s,r}(t,s,r) = e^{r(T-t)}(T-t) $$ Just to avoid conflict with mathematical formality redefine$F$ to be function of $t,S,r$ and $r(t)=r_c(t,T)$: $$ dF(t,S(t),r(t))= \\ f_t(t,S(t),r(t)) dt + f_s(t,S(t),r(t)) dS(t)+ f_r(t,S(t),r(t)) dr(t)+\frac{1}{2}f_{r,r}(t,S(t),r(t)) (dr(t))^2+f_{r,s}(t,S(t),r(t)) dr(t)dS(t) $$ Let's use the shorthand notation:

$$dF= f_t dt + f_s dS+ f_r dr+\frac{1}{2}f_{r,r} (dr)^2+f_{r,s} drdS (1)$$ Note $$drdS=\sigma_sS\sigma_rr\rho dt$$ $$(dr)^2=\sigma_r^2r^2dt$$

Now you have the relevant information to simplify equation 1 and after (a lot of) symbol-jiggling you should reach a decent expression for $dF$.

Please let me know if my (some how nonchalant) notation is confusing or not understable.

## Answer by user34971 (score 1)

https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/44725

If $r$ is the stochastic short rate then first of all you cannot write $P = e^{-r(t,T)(T-t)}$. The zero-coupon bond price will be $$ P(t,T) = E_t \left[ e^{- \int_t^T r_u du} \right] $$ Now finding the dynamics of $P(t,T)$ given the dynamics of $r_t$ is, as far as I know, relatively easy only in so-called affine term structure models (ATS models). For your particular problem I think it's fine to start with supposing the dynamics of $P$ is given by $$ dP = rP dt + \sigma_P P dW_r $$ Note that the zero coupon $P$ dynamics is driven by the same $dW_r$ as the one that drives $r$ since $P$ depends on $r$. The risk-neutral drift of $P$ is $r$ as $P$ is a tradable asset. The $\sigma_P$ we will leave unspecified.

We can apply Ito now: $$ d(S/P) = (1/P)dS + S d(1/P) + dS d(1/P) $$ with $$ d(1/P) = (-1/P^2) dP + (1/P^3) (dP)^2 $$ Now if you work this out you'll see what the drift is and the volatility is of $S/P$ under the risk-neutral measure $\mathcal{Q}$. To make the forward price driftless you do a measure change to work under the forward measure $\mathcal{Q}^T$. If $\sigma_P$ is zero due to constant or deterministic short rate then $(dP)^2 = 0$ and $dS d(1/P) = 0$, and the forward price is already driftless under $\mathcal{Q}$.

Shown in full with attribution under the source's licence. Licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 (Stack Exchange)

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.