Bitcoin and Ether Option Flows Around the FOMC and NFP

Summary

This weekly market commentary tracks Bitcoin and Ether options around the Federal Reserve meeting and US employment report. It describes implied volatility falling after the expected rate increase and Powell’s hawkish remarks, alongside selling in Bitcoin straddles and calls and buying of bearish put structures. Ether showed a similar volatility pattern, while its implied volatility was reported below realized volatility on a seven-day comparison; Bitcoin implied volatility remained at a premium.

Ahead of payroll data, traders bought puts and calls, and volatility held firm after expiry. A relatively benign report coincided with a rally in risk assets and further call buying. Later, volatility eased as crypto prices retreated with US equities. The author also discusses call skew moving toward flat and a technical resistance area as possible influences on volatility. These are observations of reported flow and market conditions, not a tested strategy: the commentary gives limited context for trade sizes and does not establish that the cited flows caused subsequent price action.

Key ideas

• Bitcoin implied volatility fell after the Federal Reserve event as traders sold straddles and calls and bought bearish structures.
• Ether implied volatility was reported below realized volatility on the seven-day comparison, while Bitcoin implied volatility remained above realized volatility.
• Option demand and volatility held up before the employment report, then call buying accompanied a rally in risk assets.
• The commentary links changing volatility and call skew to event risk, price levels, and trader sentiment without testing causality.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.