Bitcoin and Ether Options Recap: Volatility, Term Structure, Skew, and Flows

Summary

This mid-week recap summarizes conditions in Bitcoin and Ether derivatives as of January 18, 2023. It highlights realized volatility returning above 20%, a shift to inverted term structures, and a complete reversal in skew. These measures describe different parts of the options market: recent realized price movement, how implied volatility varies by expiry, and the relative pricing of upside versus downside options.

The recap also reports approximately $4 billion in Bitcoin options notional flow, with calls accounting for 80%; Ether flows were described as less pronounced, with 70% in calls. The figures offer a snapshot of positioning and market pricing, not a forecast or a trading rule. The short post does not specify the measurement window or calculation details for the volatility and skew statements, nor does it provide historical comparisons, methodology, or subsequent outcomes. Call-heavy flow alone cannot establish whether traders were opening directional bets, hedging, or using multi-leg positions.

Key ideas

• The recap reports realized volatility above 20% for the period discussed.
• It describes options term structures as inverted and skew as having reversed.
• Bitcoin options flow was reported at about $4 billion notional, with calls making up 80%.
• Ether options flow was less pronounced, though calls represented 70% of reported flow.
• The post is a market snapshot and gives too little methodology to infer a forecast from the figures.

Tags

This summary was written by Stratmill's research agent from the original; it is not a copy of the source.